neatlburbwthrguy Posted Tuesday at 05:47 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:47 PM 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Euro for ATL about what I've been expecting. SN briefly, then SNPL, then PL, then FZRA. The wedge may indeed break and they get to 34 but by then I think the event has ended anyway how far north of the city do you think it would stay primarily snow for at least half the event before switching over to ip/fzra? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Tuesday at 05:48 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:48 PM For my fellow NC folks, I’ve got a funny feeling that the Euro will catch on and deliver a more impactful event either at 18 or 0Z. Watch the QPF trend over the past few runs. It’s roughly the same for NC but much heavier amounts keep creeping closer from the southwest. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted Tuesday at 05:50 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:50 PM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted Tuesday at 05:50 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:50 PM 1 minute ago, neatlburbwthrguy said: how far north of the city do you think it would stay primarily snow for at least half the event before switching over to ip/fzra? 30-40 miles probably. Assuming we see no north shift I'd say places 15-20 miles north of the north side of 285 would be mostly snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Tuesday at 05:52 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:52 PM 12Z Euro: ZR: IP: qpf: 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted Tuesday at 05:54 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:54 PM Model trends are positive on balance but this has some warning signs anyone hoping for significant impact in NC east of the mountains. The stagnant cold, lack of a high, suspiciously high thicknesses etc. I will forever be scarred by Jan 2017... 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Tuesday at 05:54 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:54 PM Arctic dew points 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Tuesday at 05:58 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:58 PM 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted Tuesday at 06:03 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:03 PM 1 hour ago, buckeyefan1 said: Ya’ll know not to take the ukie’s thermal profile verbatim I believe we have now entered the weenie panic timeline before the radar hallucinations begin That and seeing virga on the radar saying the forecast is a bus lol! In the first 1 hour of the event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Tuesday at 06:04 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:04 PM 5 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: That is an incredible ensemble look at this range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Tuesday at 06:07 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:07 PM Will be nice to have instant stickage with highs in the mid/upper 30s and lows in the teens leading up to the storm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Tuesday at 06:08 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:08 PM EPS: juicer, improved. But, a tick north for those on the edge. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted Tuesday at 06:09 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:09 PM Just now, olafminesaw said: Will be nice to have instant stickage with highs in the mid/upper 30s and lows in the teens leading up to the storm Yup. Where you waste nothing from the start 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Tuesday at 06:09 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:09 PM A good thing going for us is ensembles have largely been better than op runs from each of the model suites. To me that says there is better potential for this to trend positively for snow lovers than the opposite. Call it a gut feeling, whatever you want, but I think 18z and 0z might improve across the board for snowfall 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Tuesday at 06:13 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:13 PM EPS: juicer, improved. But, a tick north for those on the edge.Southern wake will be screwed by the cutoff for sure. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted Tuesday at 06:13 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:13 PM I miss @burrel2 and @oconeexman. I feel so alone now in Upstate SC. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Tuesday at 06:15 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:15 PM EPS totals look about the same as the last run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derived42 Posted Tuesday at 06:17 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:17 PM 4 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: I miss @burrel2 and @oconeexman. I feel so alone now in Upstate SC. I'm in Fort Mill... kinda Upstate? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted Tuesday at 06:19 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:19 PM 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: EPS totals look about the same as the last run. looks a little sparser in the Upstate. Seems to be an increasing minimum here. Have not looked at the projected approach of the system into our area but I guess it could be our old friend Mr Downslope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoAPPS Posted Tuesday at 06:23 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:23 PM GFS total snowfall trend from Saturday's 18z run to today's 12z run. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted Tuesday at 06:27 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:27 PM 14 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: I miss @burrel2 and @oconeexman. I feel so alone now in Upstate SC. I'm here Lil turd! Trying to temper expectations..liking a solid 2-4 then sleet to pound it down! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Tuesday at 06:29 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:29 PM Updated, upgraded 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted Tuesday at 06:31 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:31 PM Euro members 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Tuesday at 06:33 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:33 PM Looks like a classic I-85 storm to me. . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Tuesday at 06:33 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:33 PM 9 minutes ago, GoAPPS said: GFS total snowfall trend from Saturday's 18z run to today's 12z run. Like a roller coaster ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Tuesday at 06:37 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:37 PM 12Z models’ snow/other wintry/qpf for downtown Atlanta: huge range: GFS: 5.5”; little IP/ZR; qpf 0.95” UK 5”; little IP/ZR and some rain lol; qpf 0.85” Icon 3.5”; qpf 0.95” Euro 2”; moderate IP/ZR; qpf 0.58” CMC 0.2”; mainly ZR and IP; qpf 0.70” AVG: 3.2”; qpf 0.81” So, anywhere from heavy snow, generous qpf, and little IP and ZR of GFS/UK to CMC’s almost all ZR/IP and more moderate qpf. I wouldn't want to be an Atlanta forecaster right now! Anyone have a good feel for ATL yet? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted Tuesday at 06:39 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:39 PM 11 minutes ago, oconeexman said: I'm here Lil turd! Trying to temper expectations..liking a solid 2-4 then sleet to pound it down! Wow. It worked. I have the power. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted Tuesday at 06:44 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:44 PM 5 minutes ago, GaWx said: 12Z models’ snow/other wintry/qpf for downtown Atlanta: huge range: GFS: 5.5”; little IP/ZR; qpf 0.95” UK 5”; little IP/ZR and some rain lol; qpf 0.85” Icon 3.5”; qpf 0.95” Euro 2”; moderate IP/ZR; qpf 0.58” CMC 0.2”; mainly ZR and IP; qpf 0.70” AVG: 3.2”; qpf 0.81” So, anywhere from heavy snow, generous qpf, and little IP and ZR of GFS/UK to CMC’s almost all ZR/IP and more moderate qpf. I wouldn't want to be an Atlanta forecaster right now! Anyone have a good feel for ATL yet? I'd go mostly pellets ending as light FZRA in ATL with some snow at the start. I don't think due to the pattern over the Atlantic this is going to climb much more north. The one thing I would watch for is less shearing out of the system as it comes east. I do think the QPF values on the Euro for example are likely too low 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Tuesday at 06:49 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:49 PM 6 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Wow. It worked. I have the power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Tuesday at 06:56 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:56 PM CMC ensemble mean is looking great. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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