January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor

[HKY_WX]

I guess when I was a kid my 6"+ in hickory and is now 2" of slop in Raleigh. 

[Thrasher Fan]

1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said:

Could be how cold/dry the arctic airmass is that is in place ahead of the system.  Dew points are very cold at onset

Our good friend Mr. Wetbulb will intervene  

[NYweatherguy]

The GFS destroys the north end of the Altanta metro. Been waiting years for an opportunity like this. 

[wncsnow]

The Canadian is slightly north but fine for I 40. A lot of the sleet would be snow IMO. 

[Brick Tamland]

[Brick Tamland]

[franklin NCwx]

2 minutes ago, Thrasher Fan said:

Our good friend Mr. Wetbulb will intervene  

Is lookout still around?

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Could be how cold/dry the arctic airmass is that is in place ahead of the system.  Dew points are very cold at onset

Here’s the 12Z CMC for the same time, which much better concurs with the guideline of a 546-7 thickness snow line: this is like night and day vs the GFS!

Again for comparison, here’s GFS with snow with thicknesses almost to 558!

[Brick Tamland]

Going back and forth with more snow on the NAM and ICON while the GFS and Canadian have more ice.

[NorthHillsWx]

Well the CMC killed the streak of every model trending positively (I know foothills and I-40 folks disagree) but taken at face value it’s a major winter storm for everyone. Just a crippling ice storm for the piedmont. Foothills to SW Virginia get smoked with snow 

[snowmaker13]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Well the CMC killed the streak of every model trending positively (I know foothills and I-40 folks disagree) but taken at face value it’s a major winter storm for everyone. Just a crippling ice storm for the piedmont. Foothills to SW Virginia get smoked with snow 

yup 

[SnowGoose69]

GGEM has more of a wedge over NGA/ATL than the RGEM which tells me typical RGEM long range issues, beyond 42-48 its not terribly reliable in a mixed precip event

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said:

yup 

I hate to see this but mainly ZR instead of mainly snow actually makes more sense for much of this area based on 1000/500 mb thicknesses guidelines. Also, I’m considering the track of the low.

[Brick Tamland]

GEFS totals were slightly more this run than the previous one.

[NorthHillsWx]

With surface temps in the mid 20’s I’d have to think a lot of that freezing rain modeled would likely be sleet. 1-3” of sleet/snow with a glaze of ice would be acceptable in my neighborhood 

[wncsnow]

Well the good mojo may have stopped. The UK is weaker and warmer. 

[CaryWx]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

With surface temps in the mid 20’s I’d have to think a lot of that freezing rain modeled would likely be sleet. 1-3” of sleet/snow with a glaze of ice would be acceptable in my neighborhood 

Need to be 0c at 925mb don't we

[Brick Tamland]

Man, the UK sucks. Wonder what has changed from the good runs overnight and earlier this morning.

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, CaryWx said:

Need to be 0c at 925mb don't we

Yes but time and time again I’ve seen that northern edge of freezing rain end up as more sleet and 925 modeled too high, especially if the surface is that cold. There are very few instances that come to mind of freezing rain and 27 in RDU. 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

Man, the UK sucks. Wonder what has changed from the good runs overnight and earlier this morning.

Strung out, no rates

[Brick Tamland]

UK looks like mostly rain for NC but somehow the totals are more then the GFS and Canadian. Weird.

[Buddy1987]

5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Well the good mojo may have stopped. The UK is weaker and warmer. 

Ukie sucked last storm. Was the furthest south than any other model. I wouldn’t overly stress about it. Euro shows this then maybe we can start to scratch our heads. 

[olafminesaw]

I would focus on track with the UKMET, does funky things with thermals. 

[NorthHillsWx]

 

Just now, olafminesaw said:

I would focus on track with the UKMET, does funky things with thermals. 

Yea. And track is fine 

[NorthHillsWx]

5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

UK looks like mostly rain for NC but somehow the totals are more then the GFS and Canadian. Weird.

It nailed the Raleigh heat island 

[SnowDawg]

28 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Is anyone else bothered by this thickness/precip type 12Z GFS map? Typically in the SE the snow line is near 546-7. But this shows snow with thicknesses well over 552! How can this be? This is so odd! Can anyone explain this? I’d be highly suspicious of precip types on this.

 

I haven't looked at soundings to confirm this but it could be an elevated warm layer skewing the thickness values. Warm in the sense of relative to expected, but still isothermal. This is a snippet from Meteorologist Jeff Haby's page explaining. He's using 540 but I'm sure the same would apply to the general rule of 546 in the south. "For example, WAA can occur between 800 and 650 millibars, which causes the temperature in that layer to increase and thus results in the thickness increasing above 540. If the temperature between the surface and 650 millibars continues to stay below freezing, the precipitation will fall as snow." 

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/97/

[buckeyefan1]

Ya’ll know not to take the ukie’s thermal profile verbatim  

I believe we have now entered the weenie panic timeline before the radar hallucinations begin

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WXNewton]

12z so far...GFS, Canadian, UK, ICON

[Met1985]

We toss the UK.