January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor

[SUNYGRAD]

Make some happy ---NWS GSP

Starting to get reports of snow in the Upper Savannah and Lakelands
area as a mesoscale band sets up near the I-20 corridor and
gradually lifts north. Heavy snow and sleet being reported within
this band. Temperatures have been very cold recently, so most of any
wintry precip that falls will accumulate immediately and with the
recent development of the snowbank to the south, have decided to
increase snowfall amounts for locations along and south of I-85.
Still expect the warmnose to punch in later this afternoon into the
evening hours and transition most of the precip from snow to
sleet/freezing rain for the Piedmont areas. Snowfall rates will run
1"-2" within the aforementioned mesoscale band and will make travel
conditions very hazardous. Even with the uptick in snowfall amounts
in this area, there is the possibility that amounts could still be
overdone depending on how this band of heavy snow plays out.

[eyewall]

Raleigh holding the line as of 15 minutes ago:

[suzook]

With the rain and temps at 33, the melting has begun. Wound up with about 3/4 inch. Could be gone by this evening if temps make it to 35 as forecast.

[Brick Tamland]

[olafminesaw]

[Brick Tamland]

[StantonParkHoya]

Hmm that 4 inches keeps creeping into wake county 

[HWY316wx]

Big dry slot about to be over a decent part of GA.  I am skeptical on ZR totals.

[wake4est]

I really wanna know where the ridiculously awful Apple weather app gets their information from because it is saying to expect 4 to 5 inches of snow in southern Wake County in the next 24 hours  

[QC_Halo]

The I-85 corridor’s effect on weather should be studied by scientists and philosophers. It’s truly mystical.

[Brick Tamland]

[Brick Tamland]

16 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Hmm that 4 inches keeps creeping into wake county 

Yeah, the RAP has me with 3 now.

[QC_Halo]

My NWS forecast page doesn’t event mention any precip…lol. 

 

 

[KChuck]

6 minutes ago, wake4est said:

I really wanna know where the ridiculously awful Apple weather app gets their information from because it is saying to expect 4 to 5 inches of snow in southern Wake County in the next 24 hours  

I was thinking the Weather Channel 

[suzook]

5 minutes ago, QC_Halo said:

The I-85 corridor’s effect on weather should be studied by scientists and philosophers. It’s truly mystical.

They built it based on the screw zone.

[suzook]

Whatever snow/sleet we had is disappearing in front of my eyes. Sidewalks and streets reappearing.

[QC_Halo]

[dsaur]

15 minutes ago, HWY316wx said:

Big dry slot about to be over a decent part of GA.  I am skeptical on ZR totals.

Yeah, I've been under very light misty drizzle for hours now, and 32. Just a bare skin on things I can touch.  More in the trees, but the wind is gusting now, and no clickity clack up there.  Big dry slot coming, so the rain on the other side would have to be heavy to cause problems.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[Brick Tamland]

3 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Who is the person showing this?

[suzook]

4 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Who is the person showing this?

Top right corner.....

[Brick Tamland]

Looks like the latest HRRR increased totals a little. Now has me at 4 inches.

[eyewall]

Based on reports I am thinking the front end may be getting closer to Asheboro already.

[Snow dog]

12 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

I hope this is correct.  So far a big dud in my backyard.  Low rates has the snow melting off my roof already… barely any white on the ground here 2 miles  north of I-85 in Greenville..

[BooneWX]

11 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Who is the person showing this?

The goat - cranky 

[a5ehren]

28 minutes ago, KChuck said:

I was thinking the Weather Channel 

They bought Dark Sky a few years back and made it the backend for their weather app. DS claimed to have their own ultra-short-range model, but I never saw any verification data on it.

[HKY_WX]

4 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Looks like the latest HRRR increased totals a little. Now has me at 4 inches.

Kuchera method is probably more accurate representation. But yea, the NAM related suite (NAM/HRRR/etc) have slowly moved that band from VA down into northern NC run by run. It's much more similar to the euro/RGEM from the last few days which has always made more sense. i85 special.

[WeatherHawk]

3 hours ago, Tacoma said:

Looks like this is over performing as many had thought

Indeed, about an hour out here...east of Elk Knob, Rittle Knob.  Got a healthy 0.75"...should these rates continue for the next 20+ hours, could be more than expected.  Anyone in the NW GA area, Lookout/Pigeon Mtn. (TAG Region). 

[Blue Ridge]

5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Looks like the latest HRRR increased totals a little. Now has me at 4 inches.

IMBY post:

HRRR has been consistent in showing the sharp gradient running through my neck of S Wake. Will be interesting to watch unfold if nothing else. 

[CaryWx]

1 minute ago, Blue Ridge said:

IMBY post:

HRRR has been consistent in showing the sharp gradient running through my neck of S Wake. Will be interesting to watch unfold if nothing else. 

You and me both.  The airport could end up with twice as much snow as my location.