January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor

[olafminesaw]

36 minutes ago, msuwx said:

That leading band stretching from ATL into SC will mean a lot. Latest NAM completely dissipates it as it tries to push into NC. 

GRAF is the same

https://x.com/Daniel_Bonds/status/1877671619683848519

[Brick Tamland]

[NEGa]

10 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Not loving reports of how fast the warm nose is working north in parts of GA. Was hoping to get to at least 3 or 4 this afternoon before going over to sleet but I'm not so now.

Same. On the phone with my sister in athens and they just went to sleet

[kayman]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Atlanta has measurable snowfall. The webcam from Hartsfield International Airport:

https://www.fox10phoenix.com/webcams-atlanta2

I'm near Charlotte-Douglas International Airport on the Southwest side of I-485 beltway.  CLT Airport likely to look exactly like Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport in a few hours. Metro Charlotte will likely see mostly snow with 2-3 inches with a change over to a wintry mix with snow/sleet towards the end. However, it'll likely briefly turn back to light snow before the precipitation ends. 

I think too many models and forecasters are overestimating the northward movement due to the surface low still hovering along the Gulf. The LP will buzz through SE GA to the Atlantic in a few hours and likely take the tract closest to the Southernmost one. 

The geography of Metro Charlotte is varied and will play and effect on the precipitation here. 

The transition line will be somewhere near our south of Chester & Great Falls but north of Columbia and Florence in SC

[Snow dog]

To my untrained eye on radar, looking more like the heaviest precip will stay to our south in the upstate..

[SnowDawg]

1 minute ago, NEGa said:

Same. On the phone with my sister in athens and they just went to sleet

I've seen reports of sleet and freezing rain all the way into Dawsonville area.

[BooneWX]

4 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

GRAF is the same

https://x.com/Daniel_Bonds/status/1877671619683848519

HRRR is most closely matching up to real time radar trends. Take a look at the radar for western NC, the HRRR sniffed out the virga storm first for this region.

[weatherfide]

FV3, Euro, and to a lesser extent HRRR did well with this one. NAM is trash and I see why they want to eliminate it.

[SUNYGRAD]

HRRR is a little too warm at surface here in GSO---about two degrees or so. 

[suzook]

Welp its just good old rain now, temp at 32. Fun while it lasted.

[strongwxnc]

4 minutes ago, Snow dog said:

To my untrained eye on radar, looking more like the heaviest precip will stay to our south in the upstate..

Going to be close for that band but looks but could be true. Maybe someone can speak to the direction it may continue to travel.

[burgertime]

Correct me if I'm wrong but it looks like on some of the short-range modes the storms in the gulf is helping rob some moisture upstream. Keep an eye on that at is can does have an impact. I'm a little less worried about ZR with this one for NC as much as the issue now with radars showing this kind of patch flow on the short range models. Good luck and I hope it overperforms! 

[Brick Tamland]

HRRR, RAP and RGEM all looking good.

 

 

[Snow dog]

3 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Correct me if I'm wrong but it looks like on some of the short-range modes the storms in the gulf is helping rob some moisture upstream. Keep an eye on that at is can does have an impact. I'm a little less worried about ZR with this one for NC as much as the issue now with radars showing this kind of patch flow on the short range models. Good luck and I hope it overperforms! 

Yes-the northern half of the precip shield looks much less impressive than the bottom half..

[Upstate Tiger]

Just now, Snow dog said:

Yes-the northern half of the precip shield looks much less impressive than the bottom half..

Yes, there is a pretty strong line of thunderstorms that have developed off shore.  Don't know if it is enought to impact our storm at this point.  Will just have to watch it.  

[burgertime]

14 minutes ago, Snow dog said:

Yes-the northern half of the precip shield looks much less impressive than the bottom half..

Yea you can really see those storms line up vertically which IRRC (I'm a bit rusty these days) is what does the robbing. If you see the storms in a more horizontal alignment that enhances. So keep an eye on the live radar for that. 

*EDITED- Ignore this as I had it mixed up. Thus why you should always listen to the professionals! 

 

 

 

[purduewx80]

1 minute ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Yes, there is a pretty strong line of thunderstorms that have developed off shore.  Don't know if it is enought to impact our storm at this point.  Will just have to watch it.  

That has little to nothing to do with it. The jet dynamics are becoming more unfavorable with time, resulting in weakening frontogenesis near and above 700mb, which had been tapping into the dendritic growth zone earlier this morning. The bulk of our moisture with this higher up forcing came from the Pacific. Low level winds out of the E or SE are also bringing in drier air out of the weakening surface high. 

[msuwx]

3 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Yea you can really see those storms line up vertically which IRRC (I'm a bit rusty these days) is what does the robbing. If you see the storms in a more horizontal alignment that enhances. So keep an eye on the live radar for that. 

 

 

From my experience, Gulf convection that is 'positively tilted' like that can actually enhance the moisture transport northeastward. What you don't want is the convection to race out ahead of the system and it take on more of a neutral or negative tilt orientation. Don't know if that makes sense or not. I'm tired.

 

[cpg2]

Light snow just started about 14 miles south of Greenville, SC

[strongwxnc]

3 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

That has little to nothing to do with it. The jet dynamics are becoming more unfavorable with time, resulting in weakening frontogenesis near and above 700mb, which had been tapping into the dendritic growth zone earlier this morning. The bulk of our moisture with this higher up forcing came from the Pacific. Low level winds out of the E or SE are also bringing in drier air out of the weakening surface high. 

thanks for the info. 

[purduewx80]

The Carolinas are increasingly under the convergent quadrant of the upper jet, which diminishes the lift needed to maintain the band of heavier snow. Low level dynamics will kick in this afternoon but the DGZ is too high up for most areas to see the snow rates observed this morning. 

[strongwxnc]

1 minute ago, msuwx said:

From my experience, Gulf convection that is 'positively tilted' like that can actually enhance the moisture transport northeastward. What you don't want is the convection to race out ahead of the system and it take on more of a neutral or negative tilt orientation. Don't know if that makes sense or not. I'm tired.

 

Thanks for the info Matt. Get some sleep dude

[burgertime]

2 minutes ago, msuwx said:

From my experience, Gulf convection that is 'positively tilted' like that can actually enhance the moisture transport northeastward. What you don't want is the convection to race out ahead of the system and it take on more of a neutral or negative tilt orientation. Don't know if that makes sense or not. I'm tired.

 

Ah ok, yea I must of had it mixed it up. I could have sworn it was robbing when it was positively titled but now that you say that it's all coming back to me. Damn this dyslexia! 

[SUNYGRAD]

Divergence/Convergence

[burgertime]

7 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

That has little to nothing to do with it. The jet dynamics are becoming more unfavorable with time, resulting in weakening frontogenesis near and above 700mb, which had been tapping into the dendritic growth zone earlier this morning. The bulk of our moisture with this higher up forcing came from the Pacific. Low level winds out of the E or SE are also bringing in drier air out of the weakening surface high. 

This was probably my fault as it's the end of the day here in the EU after a long week and I've been out of the game for awhile with winter storms in the SE. Thanks for the ACCURATE information! 

[SUNYGRAD]

[Upstate Tiger]

5 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

The Carolinas are increasingly under the convergent quadrant of the upper jet, which diminishes the lift needed to maintain the band of heavier snow. Low level dynamics will kick in this afternoon but the DGZ is too high up for most areas to see the snow rates observed this morning. 

Good stuff.  Thanks.

[burgertime]

21 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Correct me if I'm wrong but it looks like on some of the short-range modes the storms in the gulf is helping rob some moisture upstream. Keep an eye on that at is can does have an impact. I'm a little less worried about ZR with this one for NC as much as the issue now with radars showing this kind of patch flow on the short range models. Good luck and I hope it overperforms! 

EDITED - I've been corrected. Please ignore. 

 

[EarlGrey]

The humidity has been steadily decreasing in Wake County. Is that a good or bad sign?

[wake4est]

14z HRRR looks to have the transition zone ever so slightly south in these parts