January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor

[donsutherland1]

Atlanta has measurable snowfall. The webcam from Hartsfield International Airport:

https://www.fox10phoenix.com/webcams-atlanta2

[eyewall]

I am not sure it will correlate but I am hoping the overperformance of the snow in Atlanta means the screw line up here will be a bit farther south.

[StantonParkHoya]

I like the snow line being down to Charleston

[CentralNC]

One look at this makes us understand while Raleigh folks are always nervous.

[Brick Tamland]

1 minute ago, CentralNC said:

One look at this makes us understand while Raleigh folks are always nervous.

Wake always seems to be the boundary line. Just depends on how far south or north in Wake that line is.

[eyewall]

3 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

One look at this makes us understand while Raleigh folks are always nervous.

I will take my Subaru up to Roxboro if I have to LOL.

[HWY316wx]

Really heavy band south of Atlanta that just keeps pumping it out.

Also, just so I don't forget, NEVER EVER trust the NAM.  What a fail.

[StantonParkHoya]

4 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

One look at this makes us understand while Raleigh folks are always nervous.

It’s stressful for us Raleigh folks. The people in Creedmoor don’t even come on these boards because they know it just snows there.

[ILM2714]

Leaving Wilmington around lunch time to travel to my in laws “farm” in northern Alamance county. Im really hoping for a couple of inches so the kids can get some fun in….and me too.


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[suzook]

6 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I am not sure it will correlate but I am hoping the overperformance of the snow in Atlanta means the screw line up here will be a bit farther south.

Its all about where the heavy bands set up. I'm only at a half inch, but someone on here 3 miles to my north has 2 inches.

[Brick Tamland]

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

It’s stressful for us Raleigh folks. The people in Creedmoor don’t even come on these boards because they know it just snows there.

Or they don't have internet up there.

[DeltaPilot]

Looking at just over an inch. Im in Senoia just immediately S of KFFC. Sleet snow mix and just started light rain off and on and getting glaze. Im pretty happy!

[ninergreen]

14 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

One look at this makes us understand while Raleigh folks are always nervous.

Current Atlanta metro reports say that the line in question should be moved a smidge south.  

[PackGrad05]

I think RAH has a better handle on arrival. The HRRR and NAM are in line with their thinking. It’ll take a while to saturate the layer with the initial light returns.


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[SnowDawg]

Crazy to see that frontogenesis band is stretching all the way to the South Carolina coast right now with some mping reports of a mix or even snow around Charleston.

[wake4est]

Nam 3k is an awful ice storm for wake. 0.4"

[Cheeznado]

As someone already posted what a massive NAM fail! The GFS and AI Euro did the best here. the ensembles were also very steady on us getting at least an inch, I am just over 2" as the changeover is happening.

 

[suzook]

 

Look at that beautiful band! Wherever it goes, ENJOY!

[msuwx]

That leading band stretching from ATL into SC will mean a lot. Latest NAM completely dissipates it as it tries to push into NC. 

[eyewall]

4 minutes ago, msuwx said:

That leading band stretching from ATL into SC will mean a lot. Latest NAM completely dissipates it as it tries to push into NC. 

Yeah I do not expect that band to make it up here.

[Fuji Kapesta]

I’m in Lawrenceville GA 2 inches on deck  and it just flipped light sleet

[Brick Tamland]

14 minutes ago, msuwx said:

That leading band stretching from ATL into SC will mean a lot. Latest NAM completely dissipates it as it tries to push into NC. 

Is there a model that you think is handling it best so far?

[AirNelson39]

Wishing everyone the best, I’m now living in Clayton NC, SE of Raleigh.  I won’t be home for this as I’m in Dallas (got to experience the entire storm here).  Either way it plays out with precip type, with all the cold the past several days, the roads will be a disaster.  

[suzook]

Anyone in greensboro GA??? radar looks like they are getting slammed.

[wake4est]

Latest NAM, NAM 3k, RAP, & HRRR all have between 0.25"- 0.5" of freezing rain for Wake County. Is that a realistic outcome? 

[SnowDawg]

Not loving reports of how fast the warm nose is working north in parts of GA. Was hoping to get to at least 3 or 4 this afternoon before going over to sleet but I'm not so now.

[cbmclean]

Just now, wake4est said:

Latest NAM, NAM 3k, RAP, & HRRR all have between 0.25"- 0.5" of freezing rain for Wake County. Is that a realistic outcome? 

Unlikely.  General rule of thumb is models usually overdo the icing.  But I guess there are probably exceptions.    

[msuwx]

14 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Is there a model that you think is handling it best so far?

HRRR hasn't been bad. 

[Blue Ridge]

3 minutes ago, wake4est said:

Latest NAM, NAM 3k, RAP, & HRRR all have between 0.25"- 0.5" of freezing rain for Wake County. Is that a realistic outcome? 

General rule of thumb: mixing/outright ZR is always on the table in Wake, especially south and East. Depending on track, US 1 and/or US 64 are good landmarks for this. 
 

edit: that said, even a full ZR storm won’t equate 1:1 to total QPF. Start with total QPF, cut in half, and that’s a reasonable “worst outcome” benchmark. 

[suzook]

Temp creeping up. 32, with sleet and rain now mixing in. Gonna be a sht show here soon.