January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor

[wxdawg10]

5 minutes ago, AppalachianWedge said:

Maybe it's my middle aged eyes but the current radar return seems to show a much larger field of precip than any model I have seen the last few days.

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you're not crazy.  But i've seen this movie before and i have trained myself to be skeptical.  But it feels like central NC is due for some good luck.  We'll be too close to the rain/snow line just to the south, which means some mixing will cut down on totals.  Someone might cash in on some heavier overrunning bands 

[wncsnow]

HRRR is coming in warmer mid levels with the sleet line about 50 miles north of 18Z so far

[wncsnow]

Snow totals will be lower in WNC this run. Less moisture and warm nose more pronounced.

[Tony Sisk]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Snow totals will be lower in WNC this run. Less moisture and warm nose more pronounced.

It’s like watching a yo-yo…up and down, up and down.

[Bevo]

I actually tend to agree most with GSP NWS on this event.

[BooneWX]

Amazing how these models know exactly where 85 is

[wncsnow]

Just now, BooneWX said:

Amazing how these models know exactly where 85 is

The thermals were mostly ok for us. Little bit less precipitation but still a solid look. 

[strongwxnc]

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The thermals were mostly ok for us. Little bit less precipitation but still a solid look. 

SW Mountains still get raked. 

Drops 5" here.

[Bevo]

I've already started drinking...even if that's bad, I don't care.

[BooneWX]

The HRRR is initializing temps 4-5 degrees too high atm. Not sure that really matters because we’re talking about mid level warmth but obviously makes me cautious of over valuing warmer depictions.

[lilj4425]

6 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Amazing how these models know exactly where 85 is

Whoever keeps putting I-85 from Google Maps into these damn weather models needs to stop. And to think I live literally two miles south of I-85 also. I’m soo screwed.  

[Brick Tamland]

34 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

18z Euro verifying best by a wide margin on precip coverage right now.  RGEM is not bad but its too dry, 12/3KM NAM horrific.  They were both dry in Shreveport and most of NRN LA and WRN MS/SE AR.  Even the high res 12Z GFS is okay as is the regular GFS.

Good. The NAM has been ugly today. The Euro has consistently been showing a good storm here.

[franklin NCwx]

4 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

SW Mountains still get raked. 

Drops 5" here.

It was close but temps ok here

[franklin NCwx]

6 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I've already started drinking...even if that's bad, I don't care.

Started a few hours ago. Let's go!

[olafminesaw]

6 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I've already started drinking...even if that's bad, I don't care.

It's okay, gotta watch for cavities but throwing back a few apple juices with the boys never hurt anyone

[wake4est]

Qpf is wow in central NC. Hrrrrrrrr has it over 0.5”. 

[olafminesaw]

[SnowDawg]

I don't really understand those snowfall outputs in North GA from model sites that are supposed to be taking sleet out, yet the majority of that adds up while it's showing sleet?

[Brick Tamland]

7 minutes ago, wake4est said:

Qpf is wow in central NC. Hrrrrrrrr has it over 0.5”. 

Yeah, this is the best run yet. Has me with 4 inches.

[StantonParkHoya]

14 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Whoever keeps putting I-85 from Google Maps into these damn weather models needs to stop. And to think I live literally two miles south of I-85 also. I’m soo screwed.  

For NC at least, is it not because 85 runs atop a ridge line that was the old postal route and was roughly demarcation of a step up? I thought it had some elevation deal at play?

[wake4est]

Just now, Brick Tamland said:

Yeah, this is the best run yet. Has me with 4 inches.

Check out RGEM

[Brick Tamland]

2 minutes ago, wake4est said:

Check out RGEM

I saw the last run at 18Z. HRRR looks very similar.

[Brick Tamland]

4 minutes ago, wake4est said:

Check out RGEM

Last run of the Euro also has me at 4 inches. The NAM seems to be by itself.

[BooneWX]

I’ve seen Miller B’s less messy than this storm

[BornAgain13]

21z SREF came in with more moisture. Solid 3-5" for that narrow band that's been showing up

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[wncsnow]

NAM slightly colder again but still more.amped than others 

[wncsnow]

NAM snow totals are still super ugly. I wonder what NWS will say 

[Kimmie]

22 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Whoever keeps putting I-85 from Google Maps into these damn weather models needs to stop. And to think I live literally two miles south of I-85 also. I’m soo screwed.  

You and me both, lol! We should have moved to Greer. 

[StantonParkHoya]

Every model has north of 40 snowing for 9 straight hours. Those must be some pretty putrid rates to only render 2-3 inches.