January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor

[Maggie Valley Steve]

7 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Haven't updated since issuing the WSW 

Refresh your browser. They've updated.

[WX FAN]

Is the NAM is on crack? Wild.

[franklin NCwx]

Great run to run consistency from the nam

[Brick Tamland]

1 minute ago, WX FAN said:

Is the NAM is on crack? Wild.

[QC_Halo]

28 minutes ago, WX FAN said:

The weather service keeps changing the forecast. Now instead of snow, north Alabama is looking at mostly sleet. I’m at a loss to understand the sudden change. How long until the b word gets used? Or am I wrong?

I posted this morning that N. MS discussion had moved the snow line north. I guess that was the Memphis offfice.

[wncsnow]

NWS loves the NAM. 

[BooneWX]

GSP increases totals as well

[wncsnow]

Just now, BooneWX said:

GSP increases totals as well

I'll take it 

[Upstate Tiger]

GSP AFD stating some areas along and north of 85 may get 2-3” of sleet after the initial burst of snow.  Wowser.  Great for sledding.  Terrible for driving.  

[ncjoaquin]

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

NWS loves the NAM. 

I noted that in the mountain thread. They are smart people, but they sure do have a lot of eggs in that one basket. 

[wncsnow]

2 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said:

I noted that in the mountain thread. They are smart people, but they sure do have a lot of eggs in that one basket. 

The SREF increased totals from the previous run. I expect the next NAM to be snowier. 

[ncjoaquin]

Just now, wncsnow said:

The SREF increased totals from the previous run. I expect the next NAM to be snowing. 

Agreed, and then they can adjust accordingly. I know they can't just blow it out like some weenie on a message board, lol. They have to answer to the public. Just give me and you a few inches, and we will be happy. 

[snowmaker13]

Can anyone explain the snow hole over Asheville? It's mildly disappointing. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

6 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

GSP AFD stating some areas along and north of 85 may get 2-3” of sleet after the initial burst of snow.  Wowser.  Great for sledding.  Terrible for driving.  

And great for longterm snowcover

[eyewall]

 

 

Not good for those of us in Raleigh

[Brick Tamland]

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

 

 

Not good for those of us in Raleigh

They must love the NAM and are mostly dismissing all the other models.

[StantonParkHoya]

How RAH took away 1-2 inches for most of us. What the hell.

[eyewall]

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

How RAH took away 1-2 inches for most of us. What the hell.

more ice

[Brick Tamland]

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

How RAH took away 1-2 inches for most of us. What the hell.

They never want to bust calling for too much. Would rather bust calling for too little.

[wncsnow]

NWS leans heavily on the NAM. If the 00Z NAM trends less amped, I bet they adjust again. 

[snowmaker13]

NWS with dramatic increases in totals for the western states. this is overperforming it looks like. 

[Silas Lang]

6 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said:

Can anyone explain the snow hole over Asheville? It's mildly disappointing. 

I think it is downslopping. When I lived there it was also annoying and remember, it is a giant bowl surrounded by mountains so you can get downslopped from literally every direction. 

[greendave]

6 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said:

Can anyone explain the snow hole over Asheville? It's mildly disappointing. 

My somewhat scientific (but not professional meteorological) answer. Asheville is in a basin completely surrounded by higher terrain. Orographic lifting on the periphery (windward), downsloping and for various reasons - less precip. on the leeward.

I believe its true Asheville and Roanoke, VA are historically the "driest" urban/metro areas East of the Mississippi due to similar geographic situations.

[greendave]

2 minutes ago, Silas Lang said:

I think it is downslopping. When I lived there it was also annoying and remember, it is a giant bowl surrounded by mountains so you can get downslopped from literally every direction. 

or yeah - what he said  

[CaryWx]

10 minutes ago, eyewall said:

 

 

Not good for those of us in Raleigh

Interesting.  I have this one as of 3:16pm

[Tacoma]

Chris Justice Greenville Met thinks WNC still sees 4-8 with mostly heavy snow with little or no mixing.

 

[purduewx80]

4 minutes ago, Silas Lang said:

I think it is downslopping. When I lived there it was also annoying and remember, it is a giant bowl surrounded by mountains so you can get downslopped from literally every direction. 

Exactly right. Ridge-top winds will be ripping out of the S/SW, which is downsloping and drying off the Blue Ridge/Mt. Pisgah. 

[sarcean]

[Tacoma]

Hunter Ward says 3-6 around Asheville, Hendersonville

[ncjoaquin]

20 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said:

Can anyone explain the snow hole over Asheville? It's mildly disappointing. 

It is because Asheville is situated in a valley between 2 mountain ranges. We can get downsloped and models will show it as at lesser precip amount than surrounding areas. While this modeled minimum has validity, it obviously is not always what happens.

I have seen many snowstorms where that modeled minimum is shown and Avl and the whole French Broad River valley meets or exceeds the surrounding area in snowfall. Of course, I have seen where this minimum has held true. 

Asheville has 20 snowstorms historically that have exceeded 10 inches of snow. 65 inches of rain fell at the airport last year. Asheville averages more snow than any non mountain location in the state. It can precipitate here.

So, while the minimum may be correct, I have found it prudent to nowcast. There are plenty of models where the minimum is not that extreme. We shall see.