January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor

[Brick Tamland]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
239 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2025

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>077-083>086-101000-
/O.UPG.KRAH.WS.A.0001.250110T1800Z-250111T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KRAH.WS.W.0001.250110T1800Z-250111T1500Z/
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-
Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-
Including the cities of Kittrell, Cary, Hillsborough, Creedmoor,
Nashville, Archdale, Southern Pines, Aberdeen, Laurinburg,
Wilson, Camp Mackall, Wagram, Asheboro, Durham, High Point,
Carrboro, Raeford, Henderson, Norlina, Rockingham, Apex, Siler
City, Pittsboro, Rougemont, Chapel Hill, Franklinton, Lexington,
Dunn, Wadesboro, Albemarle, Polkton, Knightdale, Buies Creek,
Rocky Mount, Spring Hope, Raleigh, Troy, Winston-Salem,
Greensboro, Princeville, Sanford, Roxboro, Carthage, Oxford,
Mebane, Graham, Tarboro, Selma, Clayton, Burlington, Scotland
Neck, Lillington, Louisburg, Thomasville, Wake Forest, Pinehurst,
Erwin, Warrenton, Enfield, Angier, Smithfield, Roanoke Rapids,
and Ellerbe
239 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations up to three inches and ice accumulations up to two
  tenths of an inch. Highest snow accumulations are expected along
  the Virginia border.

* WHERE...Most of central North Carolina.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
  likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road
  conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday
  evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

Persons should delay all travel if possible. If travel is absolutely
necessary, drive with extreme caution and be prepared for sudden
changes in visibility. Make sure your car is winterized and in good
working order.

[stormwatcherJ]

Looks like Raleigh NWS has gone winter storm warning now

[BornAgain13]

We will see soon if the NAM budges towards the HRRR and others. 

[wncsnow]

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

We will see soon if the NAM budges towards the HRRR and others. 

It's surface depiction is already off at initialization 

[CentralNC]

What still bugs me is RAH still calling for S or SW winds during the storm. That screams to me WAA which I thibk will cut down snow totals. Hope I'm wrong 

[Buddy1987]

Is this thing still overachieving on the north and west side based on reports? Been busy as heck at work today and haven’t been able to overly look. 

[WX FAN]

The weather service keeps changing the forecast. Now instead of snow, north Alabama is looking at mostly sleet. I’m at a loss to understand the sudden change. How long until the b word gets used? Or am I wrong?

[kvegas-wx]

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

Is this thing still overachieving on the north and west side based on reports? Been busy as heck at work today and haven’t been able to overly look. 

Massively overperforming, however, the NWS has just cancelled all watches and warnings within a 1 mile radius around Buddy1987's house.  So go back to work, no fun for you.  

[suzook]

Hrrr showing just above freezing for my area for most of the storm, which should cut most of the zr down. Hopefully that happens. I'm ok with wet snow or sleet.

[GaWx]

 After seeing the 12Z NAM verifying 4F too warm at DFW this morning, knowing this would likely be biggest ATL area winter storm since 2014, and knowing I had a place to stay, the weenie in me decided to come to ATL area and take a chance it won’t be mainly a damaging major icestorm where I’ll be. Hoping mainly snow and sleet. I’ll be in a more favorable spot thermalwise than downtown as I’ll be in N Gwinnett County between Mall of GA and Lawrenceville (~40 miles NE of ATL itself).

 I stopped for a break but wanted to note the many power trucks on I-16 heading W toward the winter storm warned area. Also, I saw numerous trees down on the sides through the 50 miles between Metter and Dublin resulting from Hurricane Helene. Never seen anything like it before!

[UpStateCAD]

what's the latest RGEM showing?  Chris Justice likes that model for GSP area.   HRRR sure has been on to some nice runs as well.

[BooneWX]

HRRR was first to the uptrend in 2022. It absolutely nailed the storm.

[suzook]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 After seeing the 12Z NAM verifying 4F too warm at DFW this morning, knowing this would likely be biggest ATL area winter storm since 2014, and knowing I had a place to stay, the weenie in me come to ATL area and take a chance it won’t be mainly a damaging major icestorm where I’ll be. Hoping mainly snow and sleet. I’ll be in a more favorable spot thermalwise than downtown as I’ll be in N Gwinnett County between Mall of GA and Lawrenceville (~40 miles NE of ATL itself).

 I stopped for a break but wanted to note the many power trucks on I-16 heading W toward the winter storm warned area. Also, I saw numerous trees down on the sides through the 50 miles between Metter and Dublin resulting from Hurricane Helene. Never seen anything like it before!

Be safe! Well I just hit 50 in senoia, with a high forecast of 44, so anything is possible with the temp variations.

[wake4est]

lol NAM drops an inch of freezing rain in northern Alabama and like zero snow south of Tennessee

[wncsnow]

NAM shows more snow for WNC so it is improved a little 

[wncsnow]

Hi Res NAM less amped too 

[franklin NCwx]

Looks like the nam laid of the gummies this run

[wncsnow]

It's still on an island but it moved towards the other solutions 

[Brick Tamland]

NAM is still warmer than all the others.

 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[UpStateCAD]

Take a look at GSP’s Forecast discussion. Sounds like they are not quite sure what to expect either.  

[WinstonSalemArlington]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

It's still on an island but it moved towards the other solutions 

Trends matter 

[wncsnow]

Just now, UpStateCAD said:

Take a look at GSP’s Forecast discussion. Sounds like they are not quite sure what to expect either.  

Haven't updated since issuing the WSW 

[Brick Tamland]

8 minutes ago, UpStateCAD said:

what's the latest RGEM showing?  Chris Justice likes that model for GSP area.   HRRR sure has been on to some nice runs as well.

12z is the last one I see.

[buckeyefan1]

2 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Looks like the nam laid of the gummies this run

I think it was shrooms  

[kvegas-wx]

2 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Trends matter 

As noted by @msuwx earlier.  If the NAM keeps initializing poorly as it has all day it still has time to baby step back to reality, which I think we will continue to see.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[eyewall]

28 minutes ago, stormwatcherJ said:

Looks like Raleigh NWS has gone winter storm warning now

Unfortunately it seems weighted to the ice for here.

[franklin NCwx]

5 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

I think it was shrooms  

Lol...I saw it parked at the dispensary in cherokee the other day.

[WX FAN]

3 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

The weather service keeps changing the forecast. Now instead of snow, north Alabama is looking at mostly sleet. I’m at a loss to understand the sudden change. How long until the b word gets used? Or am I wrong?