January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor

[greendave]

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

It's a game of inches! (Or miles anyway) 

VA line

Archdale

Asheboro

Greensboro 

I've seen it before. Alamance Co.: Swepsonville - frz rain/sleet/very little snow mix. They ended with a sloppy <1" accumulation. 4.8miles as the crow flies - Hwy 62/Alamance Rd exit (Home Depot/Sheetz) pouring big snow. I'm 2mi. NW of there - we ended with 5-6" of all snow if memory serves me....I-40/85 is real. Hold the Line.

[purduewx80]

The HREF is pretty scary in terms of the ice storm potential, but the CAMS may be too cold with too much QPF, though props to the Canadian if it occurs. Will have to watch trends HREF guidance on the 00Z and 12Z runs. Have also noticed stronger SE surface gusts showing up tomorrow, in addition to what was already expected Saturday morning (NW). Some downslope enhancement could occur tomorrow northwest of terrain features with the strong E/SE flow just off the surface. Sig impacts seem pretty likely along and especially north of I-20 in GA and adjacent areas. 12Z Fri-Sat totals below, using the FRAM algorithm.

[sarcean]

11 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I haven't had my annual meltdown yet.

year is young, might even have it tomorrow 

[stormwatcherJ]

2 minutes ago, greendave said:

I've seen it before. Alamance Co.: Swepsonville - frz rain/sleet/very little snow mix. They ended with a sloppy <1" accumulation. 4.8miles as the crow flies - Hwy 62/Alamance Rd exit (Home Depot/Sheetz) pouring big snow. I'm 2mi. NW of there - we ended with 5-6" of all snow if memory serves me....I-40/85 is real. Hold the Line.

Yes! I'm in Hillsborough, NC a few miles north of 85! Fingers crossed!

[sarcean]

[CaryWx]

4 minutes ago, greendave said:

I've seen it before. Alamance Co.: Swepsonville - frz rain/sleet/very little snow mix. They ended with a sloppy <1" accumulation. 4.8miles as the crow flies - Hwy 62/Alamance Rd exit (Home Depot/Sheetz) pouring big snow. I'm 2mi. NW of there - we ended with 5-6" of all snow if memory serves me....I-40/85 is real. Hold the Line.

You're shaping up to be in a good spot

[kvegas-wx]

One thing we normally don't have in our favor is ground temps leading up to the storm.  Anywhere north of 40-85 in NC is frozen solid.  Every flake is going to stick.  I expect most all school systems that are on the fence today will cancel by this afternoon now that the Euro is out and slightly increasing totals.  This may not be a big dog, but it will certainly be a good dog for many.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[CaryWx]

4 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

What model is that?  Seems a bit agressive

[Summey]

34 minutes ago, stormwatcherJ said:

Yes! I'm in Hillsborough, NC a few miles north of 85! Fingers crossed!

We’ll have to compare notes in the obs thread in real time through the event.  I’m ~2.5 miles south of the 40/85 split.   

[NC DataDude]

I'll be serving shaved ice for anyone interested. 

[QC_Halo]

14 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

One thing we normally don't have in our favor is ground temps leading up to the storm.  Anywhere north of 40-85 in NC is frozen solid.  Every flake is going to stick.  I expect most all school systems that are on the fence today will cancel by this afternoon now that the Euro is out and slightly increasing totals.  This may not be a big dog, but it will certainly be a good dog for many.

CMS (Charlotte) has already cancelled school

[Regan]

13 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

One thing we normally don't have in our favor is ground temps leading up to the storm.  Anywhere north of 40-85 in NC is frozen solid.  Every flake is going to stick.  I expect most all school systems that are on the fence today will cancel by this afternoon now that the Euro is out and slightly increasing totals.  This may not be a big dog, but it will certainly be a good dog for many.

Word on the down low is Wake county is leaning to closing after first thinking early dismissal. Given the unknown because we can’t predict when in a 4 hour window it’ll touch the ground, I hope they close. Wake is a massive county with a ton of buses. They share buses between hs, ms, and es so they can’t close at a specific time. Even with an early dismissal it could jump up and bite them. I know k5 that don’t get home til 5 on a regular day because if shared routes. 

[Tony Sisk]

35 minutes ago, gman said:

Good breakdown from our friend Chris Justus. https://www.facebook.com/share/v/15WD28xj9u/?mibextid=wwXIfr

Thanks for sharing...I agree with Chris.  Still seeing 2-4" along I-85 and North in the Upstate.  High elevations 4-6".  Lower Gville County, 1-2"

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

We are still not under anything in Surry Co. Even Boone has nothing

No watch or anything.

Our forecast is out Blacksburg Va and they are usually one of the last to issue anything.

 

[HKY_WX]

Euro has 4.5 for Franklinton. Would take that in a heart beat. Has lined up with the RGEM which has been really consistent.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

RAP says over a half a foot in the Triad

[Buddy1987]

What an absolute impossible forecast for Blacksburg. Globals have an inch or two here and short term models have a full fledged snowstorm. 

[Cheeznado]

Newer runs of the HRRR trending colder with a weaker farther south surface low. 

[HKY_WX]

37 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

The HREF is pretty scary in terms of the ice storm potential, but the CAMS may be too cold with too much QPF, though props to the Canadian if it occurs. Will have to watch trends HREF guidance on the 00Z and 12Z runs. Have also noticed stronger SE surface gusts showing up tomorrow, in addition to what was already expected Saturday morning (NW). Some downslope enhancement could occur tomorrow northwest of terrain features with the strong E/SE flow just off the surface. Sig impacts seem pretty likely along and especially north of I-20 in GA and adjacent areas. 12Z Fri-Sat totals below, using the FRAM algorithm.

Seems like there's def going to be a solid band of ZR somewhere along the transition line from N GA to Eastern NC. From experience you can usually cut these numbers in half. So .25 to .3 is possible in some places.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Big changes on RAP

https://x.com/sethmonteith150/status/1877409350337310886?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g

[HKY_WX]

Just now, HKY_WX said:

Seems like there's def going to be a solid band of ZR somewhere along the transition line from N GA to Eastern NC. From experience you can usually cut these numbers in half. So .25 to .3 is possible in some places.

I'm still a bit skeptical at the ZR numbers given the SLP not being a Miller B but more of a Miller A.

[strongwxnc]

4 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Big changes on RAP

https://x.com/sethmonteith150/status/1877409350337310886?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g

You are correct! 

[cpg2]

Greenville County schools are going to virtual learning tomorrow. BOOO! Let the kiddos have a snow day. 

[StantonParkHoya]

14 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

We are still not under anything in Surry Co. Even Boone has nothing

No watch or anything.

Our forecast is out Blacksburg Va and they are usually one of the last to issue anything.

 

Boone probably has a high threshold for watches/warnings

[StantonParkHoya]

6 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Big changes on RAP

https://x.com/sethmonteith150/status/1877409350337310886?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g

There is no way Columbia gets more snow than RDU here

[WNC_Fort]

16 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

We are still not under anything in Surry Co. Even Boone has nothing

No watch or anything.

Our forecast is out Blacksburg Va and they are usually one of the last to issue anything.

 

Post-storm we should have a conversation about the lack of engagement the Blacksburg office has with it's NC counties for warnings. They fail to post advisories for events compared to GSP when it comes to the mountains/foothills. I think we need  an Asheville or Hickory NWS. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[HKY_WX]

Euro has a nice band over NE NC/SE VA as the SLP starts to deepen off of NC. Something to watch, as it could lead to some higher totals in that area. You can see a reflection aloft at 850mb developing offshore NC on the Euro. This will likely enhance totals in that band due to some moisture advection/lift/dendrite growth. Not sure it would qualify to be declared a "deformation zone" but an area of enhancement.

[gwlee7]

1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Celina, Texas

 

https://x.com/taylorwitkop1/status/1877399753622708352?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g

Celina is 33 miles due north of me.  They are doing much better than those of us closer to DFW.   I have a very “unofficially measured”  inch or so of icy mostly snow mix.   We are getting periods of all snow, but not steady or consistent like just north of me (where has the SE Forum heard that before ? :))That said, even as I am typing this snow rates are picking back up.   
 

Once again, good luck guys and gals!!