DC2Winston Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Feels like a small giveaway about the mid-levels would be all this forecasted snow well NW of CNC…talking about Kentucky…too close to LP track…(I’m in Winston) . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just 24 hours ago we were worried about having .2 or less precipitation.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Thermals are not good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 It's setting up to be a typical NC winter storm. More snow north of 85 and 40. sleet along and south of 85. ZR near or just east of CLT to RAH. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, wncsnow said: It's setting up to be a typical NC winter storm. More snow north of 85 and 40. sleet along and south of 85. ZR near or just east of CLT to RAH. Yep. The GFS was a step in the right direction for those of us wanting more snow above 85. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Is it best to use Kuchera for this setup or 10:1? Which would be more accurate? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 32 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: RGEM keeps me all snow until maybe the last hour It, the HRRR and the RDPS all look good for us. The NAM is the only one that is concerning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, BornAgain13 said: Is it best to use Kuchera for this setup or 10:1? Which would be more accurate? I always go with Kuchera 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Canadian holding steady 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 It appears as if our western friends are having their winter warnings expanded because of more moisture and temperatures about 2-4 degrees colder than models are/were showing. 8 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 12Z NAM as of 10AM EST (15Z) was ~4F too warm in DFW area (~35F…see map below) vs reality of ~31F with sleet. The others (GEM, HRRR, GFS) are much closer to reality with them all being within 1F. Also, NAM dewpoints are in low 30s vs upper 20s other models and reality. Implications if any? Is NAM going to be too warm at surface in other areas, too? DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS DFW AIRPORT SLEET 31 28 89 E7 30.25S WCI 24 DALLAS LOVE LGTSLEET 32 27 81 VRB3 30.28R FTW MEACHAM LGT SNOW 30 27 86 SE7 30.25R FOG WCI 23 FTW-NAS-JRB CLOUDY 32 27 81 SE6 30.27R NAM: 35F (4F too warm) The other models are much closer to reality: GEM: 30F (only 1F too cold) HRRR: 32F (only 1F too warm) GFS: 32F (only 1F too warm) 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: It appears as if our western friends are having their winter warnings expanded because of more moisture and temperatures about 2-4 degrees colder than models are/were showing. ATL is tracking cold today too. Hopefully it holds. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Canadian is trying to eliminate the coastal plain with freezing rain 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, wake4est said: Canadian is trying to eliminate the coastal plain with freezing rain No bueno. I just got my power back on from the 12/30 tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamblinRed Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Hopefully the moisture and temperature levels in the SE will be like what is showing in DFW right now (more moisture and lower temperature than what modeling is providing). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 43 minutes ago, DC2Winston said: Feels like a small giveaway about the mid-levels would be all this forecasted snow well NW of CNC…talking about Kentucky…too close to LP track…(I’m in Winston) . Correct. We will predominantly be sleet after an hour or 2 of snow i think 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, GaWx said: 12Z NAM as of 10AM EST (15Z) was ~4F too warm in DFW area (~35F) see map below) vs reality of ~31F with sleet. The others (GEM, HRRR, GFS) are much closer to reality with them all being within 1F. Also, NAM dewpoints are in low 30s vs upper 20s other models and reality. Implications if any? Is NAM going to be too warm at surface in other areas, too? DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS DFW AIRPORT SLEET 31 28 89 E7 30.25S WCI 24 DALLAS LOVE LGTSLEET 32 27 81 VRB3 30.28R FTW MEACHAM LGT SNOW 30 27 86 SE7 30.25R FOG WCI 23 FTW-NAS-JRB CLOUDY 32 27 81 SE6 30.27R NAM: 35F (4F too warm) The other models are much closer to reality: GEM: 30F (only 1F too cold) HRRR: 32F (only 1F too warm) GFS: 32F (only 1F too warm) Thank you. Great post. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 RAP is pretty amazing but it's the RAP so take it with a grain of salt 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 15z RAP crushed GSO west (not CLT) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwlee7 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 9 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: It appears as if our western friends are having their winter warnings expanded because of more moisture and temperatures about 2-4 degrees colder than models are/were showing. Yes. Everything west of me is colder than forecast. Temps are in upper twenties to my west right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Was just about to post about the RAP. Man we can dream 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 It's a game of inches! (Or miles anyway) VA line Archdale Asheboro Greensboro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: RAP is pretty amazing but it's the RAP so take it with a grain of salt I’d literally never complain again! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just 24 hours ago we were worried about having .2 or less precipitation..Know who wasn’t? Hky Wx.I’ve learned to listen to him closely.. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 I’d literally never complain again!I’d love to get stoked….but it is the RAP lol. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 12 minutes ago, wncsnow said: RAP is pretty amazing but it's the RAP so take it with a grain of salt It's all the other short range models vs the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 38 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Just 24 hours ago we were worried about having .2 or less precipitation.. If we can stay all/mostly snow, we really have a chance to overperform. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Could be convective feedback problems with T'storms and heavy rains to the south so this would cut number down farther North . If RAP has no convective feedback issues I could see why NW NC , Northern NC into much of VA numbers have increase. This maybe what the RAP is seeing . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 28 minutes ago, GaWx said: 12Z NAM as of 10AM EST (15Z) was ~4F too warm in DFW area (~35F…see map below) vs reality of ~31F with sleet. The others (GEM, HRRR, GFS) are much closer to reality with them all being within 1F. Also, NAM dewpoints are in low 30s vs upper 20s other models and reality. Implications if any? Is NAM going to be too warm at surface in other areas, too? DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS DFW AIRPORT SLEET 31 28 89 E7 30.25S WCI 24 DALLAS LOVE LGTSLEET 32 27 81 VRB3 30.28R FTW MEACHAM LGT SNOW 30 27 86 SE7 30.25R FOG WCI 23 FTW-NAS-JRB CLOUDY 32 27 81 SE6 30.27R NAM: 35F (4F too warm) The other models are much closer to reality: GEM: 30F (only 1F too cold) HRRR: 32F (only 1F too warm) GFS: 32F (only 1F too warm) @msuwx When you get reports such as these, does that effect your thoughts on the forecast locally? How about those Basketball Dogs? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 The NAM is not currently verifying in Texas. Worth mentioning… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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