GunBlade Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 The low reforming over the mountains is what’s killing us (imby), bringing that warm air much further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, GunBlade said: The low reforming over the mountains is what’s killing us, bringing that warm air much further north. I think that Low is what's enhancing the moisture to... Kinda walking the line between warm air aloft and more moisture for some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, BornAgain13 said: I think that Low is what's enhancing the moisture to... Kinda walking the line between warm air aloft and more moisture for some. I updated to include imby lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 6 minutes ago, QC_Halo said: Now you've done it… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 NAM appears it will be amped again. Maybe more than last run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 We don't even start as snow on the nam.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 7 minutes ago, GunBlade said: The low reforming over the mountains is what’s killing us (imby), bringing that warm air much further north. It’s always a fine line in the Metro. I could get a trace, Huntersille could get 3”. (S CLT) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 I might be wrong, but isn't the HRRR going to replace the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Really like this look from the HRW FV3 for Georgia. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 NAM has snow/mix coming in earlier for you all. As early as 8 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 It seems even among the short term models the NAM is on an island right now. HRRR, GRAF, RGEM, Fv3, and RAP all look rather similar with regards to storm evolution. They also make more sense historically for the mtns foothills area in regards to a snow to sleet back to snow scenario that we've seen a thousand times. I'm not one to discount the NAM lightly, but these can't ALL be that wrong can they? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 NAM is even warmer now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 What's up the the precip break on the NAM here at 39? Dry slot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: NAM is even warmer now. No snow for Asheville. wtf?! Rain for TN even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Nam is 0" of snow for Wake and 0.15" of zr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Even accounting for the NAM being too far north I would be a bit concerned that this is what it's showing not too long after onset in the triad Weenie phase 2 is here,just 30 minutes later! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 NAM takes the low and cuts it to WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: It seems even among the short term models the NAM is on an island right now. HRRR, GRAF, RGEM, Fv3, and RAP all look rather similar with regards to storm evolution. They also make more sense historically for the mtns foothills area in regards to a snow to sleet back to snow scenario that we've seen a thousand times. I'm not one to discount the NAM lightly, but these can't ALL be that wrong can they? The NAM has not handled a winter wx event well in a long time. It's either extremely over cooked or extremely undercooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Foothills areas get a couple inches of sleet if the NAM is correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Imo follow the models that have been steady. Euro GFS RGEM haven’t hardly budged in 24 hours. To me that says they are accurately sensing the downstream environment 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 NAM seems to be like Patti Labelle and on its own. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 FV3- HiRes GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 What are the short term models seeing that the globals aren’t? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 NAM decided to put its whole reputation on the line: either it scores the coup or it’ll never be used again for all time 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: NAM decided to put its whole reputation on the line: either it scores the coup or it’ll never be used again for all time Legacy storm for the Euro AI too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 37 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: I think that Low is what's enhancing the moisture to... Kinda walking the line between warm air aloft and more moisture for some. Weaker storm = northern steam more dominant. That could.. Could ..put many out of the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 The NAM was first to sniff out the Jan 2017 debacle. It was on an island then as well. If it says warm, I have to trust it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, cbmclean said: The NAM was first to sniff out the Jan 2017 debacle. It was on an island then as well. If it says warm, I have to trust it. Inside 24-36 hours the NAM tends to be very good with thermals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwlee7 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, buckeyefan1 said: What ya’ll need to watch today is the better moisture that has entered TX and their current obs in comparison to what is modeled. The high to our north will be moving in tandem with the storm and you need to compare the current observations with what is modeled. Today is the day we can evaluate everything as it unfolds. I also want to say thanks to you all for making the past weekish fun, full of learning and friendships good luck tomorrow Greetings SE Forum!! My house is located 8.3 miles NNE from DFW Airport. The event began to unfold here around an hour and a half ago with light mixing. Since that time we have been experiencing big FAT flakes, and then a more wintery mix but still almost all completely frozen. We are very early in the storm. At this very moment all snow at a moderate to heavy rate. But, so far it seems like we are vacillating back and forth btw all snow and then a mix. I am not as knowledgeable on map reading and such as most of you so I will continue to check in with my new friends in the Central States (TX) thread to better understand what things are looking like. I will report back in in a few hours and let ya’ll know how it’s going here. Having been an avid reader, lurker, and some time poster in the SE forum before moving here in 2017, my hope is that you get to see some action too. 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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