January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor

[BornAgain13]

Man if only the RAP could be right. Let's hope this keeps trending in the right direction today!

[BornAgain13]

Anyone got the 6z euro compared to 0z?

[wake4est]

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Anyone got the 6z euro compared to 0z?

 

[Regan]

26 minutes ago, wake4est said:

The WSWatch starts at 1:00pm tomorrow for us in Wake. I would almost guarantee that they will do an early release tomorrow, even though the snow doesn't rally arrive until closer to dinner time

Probably need a 3hr release at the least to get the littles on long routes home by 2ish. I was just told they don’t know because it depends on when it makes it to the ground and they can’t predict that well. That’s a nightmare when it’s expected to stick immediately. 

[BornAgain13]

1 minute ago, wake4est said:

 

That's very very similar to 0z

[blueheels2]

3 minutes ago, Regan said:

Probably need a 3hr release at the least to get the littles on long routes home by 2ish. I was just told they don’t know because it depends on when it makes it to the ground and they can’t predict that well. That’s a nightmare when it’s expected to stick immediately. 

For the Triangle I would think it would be a no brainer.  Release at 12 to avoid a repeat of the 2004 or 2014 commute disasters.

[Regan]

1 minute ago, blueheels2 said:

For the Triangle I would think it would be a no brainer.  Release at 12 to avoid a repeat of the 2004 or 2014 commute disasters.

I hear you. But Wake has a bad history on twiddling thumbs. I’m near the famous Raleigh meme btw. That is right down the road. It was interesting. 

[wxdawg10]

trying to make it to and from work when it rains around here is already an adventure in itself.  You don't want to be out and about when it starts coming down.  Close the schools, send the kids home by 12pm. 

[StoneColdWeatherAustin]

24 minutes ago, Regan said:

Probably need a 3hr release at the least to get the littles on long routes home by 2ish. I was just told they don’t know because it depends on when it makes it to the ground and they can’t predict that well. That’s a nightmare when it’s expected to stick immediately. 

I would hope the school system does not try to get into the weeds of meteorology in order to make a decision on release time.  Maybe that is what they do, and also the reason they make interesting decisions at times.

[CentralNC]

Cranky seems to think most of NC will have IP/ZR (start as snow)  I tend to agree with him

[strongwxnc]

I would hope the school system does not try to get into the weeds of meteorology in order to make a decision on release time.  Maybe that is what they do, and also the reason they make interesting decisions at times.

Speaking of schools, I work at one in the foothills of North Carolina. And all estimates have our County start to be affected between 10 to one. My fear is the powers that be will start but dismiss early instead of calling the whole day.


.

[Dunkman]

1 hour ago, Regan said:

Start time for precip as sparsely reported on some stations still and seems to be a huge window of time still. Seeing anywhere between 3pm to 8pm for Wake. Hope they pin this down better for commutes/schools. Hoping schools bite the bullet and just close early to get kids home. Some k5 don’t get home til 5 or after as well as some charter transportation for k12. 
 

Opinions on start time for Rowan, Guilford, and Wake?

The plans for Guilford as of now are to just do remote learning on Friday. Can’t speak to any other districts but they all usually come to the same conclusions.

[Brick Tamland]

The NAM and GFS both suck here for totals lately. Should that be a concern or do we ride the other models?

[Tony Sisk]

8 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

The NAM and GFS both suck here for totals lately. Should that be a concern or do we ride the other models?

Models have become about a reliable as polls. Which tells me that the data needs to be fine tuned.

[BooneWX]

8 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

The NAM and GFS both suck here for totals lately. Should that be a concern or do we ride the other models?

I’m riding whichever models tell me what I want to hear, so for now, put me in the RAP, RGEM camp. This is subject to change in like 3 hrs.

[Brick Tamland]

RGEM looks great for a lot of NC. Has all snow for the majority of Wake and points north and west.

[StantonParkHoya]

12 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

The NAM and GFS both suck here for totals lately. Should that be a concern or do we ride the other models?

Brick — why would this concern you?

[Brick Tamland]

[Brick Tamland]

2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Brick — why would this concern you?

Is that the latest run? Maybe I was looking at the wrong one.

[suzook]

We should stop putting too much faith in the long range models at this point.

[BornAgain13]

12z HRRR rolling now... Let's see what she cooks up.

[wncsnow]

This is what the last HRRR said. It's not as amped as the NAM either. New run should be interesting 

[Brick Tamland]

8 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Brick — why would this concern you?

I see that one is from Tropical Tidbits and includes sleet. The one I was looking at is at Pivitol and I am assuming doesn't include sleet.

[eyewall]

NWS RAH admits they are struggling with determining the extent of the warm nose and that is behind the variance in the model solutions. It is a crapshoot.

[olafminesaw]

A nasty refreeze likely Saturday night with highs near 40 on Saturday before dipping into the teens Saturday night.

[cbmclean]

2 minutes ago, eyewall said:

NWS RAH admits they are struggling with determining the extent of the warm nose and that is behind the variance in the model solutions. It is a crapshoot.

It ALWAYS overperforms.  

[Brick Tamland]

2 minutes ago, eyewall said:

NWS RAH admits they are struggling with determining the extent of the warm nose and that is behind the variance in the model solutions. It is a crapshoot.

That always seems to be the case.

[buckeyefan1]

What ya’ll need to watch today is the better moisture that has entered TX and their current obs in comparison to what is modeled. The high to our north will be moving in tandem with the storm and you need to compare the current observations with what is modeled. Today is the day we can evaluate everything as it unfolds. 
 

I also want to say thanks to you all for making the past weekish fun, full of learning and friendships  

good luck tomorrow  

[frazdaddy]

58 minutes ago, Regan said:

I hear you. But Wake has a bad history on twiddling thumbs. I’m near the famous Raleigh meme btw. That is right down the road. It was interesting. 

I left work in Cary at 10 am to pick my oldest up from school on Durant rd,(N,Ral) made it by 11pm. 

[frazdaddy]

1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said:

What ya’ll need to watch today is the better moisture that has entered TX and their current obs in comparison to what is modeled. The high to our north will be moving in tandem with the storm and you need to compare the current observations with what is modeled. Today is the day we can evaluate everything as it unfolds. 
 

I also want to say thanks to you all for making the past weekish fun, full of learning and friendships  

good luck tomorrow  

Good to have the band back together.