January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor

[WinstonSalemArlington]

WxBloodsworth

[wncsnow]

UK looks solid

[GaWx]

35 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

UK looks solid

Only 0.3” downtown ATL! Tight gradient just to the north with 2.7” at Roswell!

[GaWx]

From KCHS:

INITIAL "WARM   ADVECTION WING" OF LIGHT PRECIP IS LOOKING NOSE INTO THE LOCAL   FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY WHICH COULD PRESENT   SOME P-TYPE ISSUES FOR INLAND AREAS GIVEN THE LINGERING COLD   AIR. INLAND GFS AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FRIDAY MORNING   SHOW A DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER HOVERING AROUND 0C UP THROUGH ~700   MB AND LOTS OF DRY AIR BELOW WITH WET BULB TEMP PROFILES   COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING...SUGGESTING SOME -SN POTENTIAL.   HOWEVER, GIVEN THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR, ANY PRECIP WILL HAVE A   HARD TIME ACTUALLY REACHING THE SURFACE. THAT SAID, AFTERNOON   FORECAST WILL INTRODUCE A LIGHT SNOW/LIGHT RAIN-SNOW MIX TO   INLAND AREAS FRIDAY MORNING BUT WITH NO ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS   ANTICIPATED (MORE LIKELY SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES).

Claxton, GA forecast:

FRIDAY   CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING, THEN A   CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.   HIGHS AROUND 50. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION   40 PERCENT.

[Met1985]

Euro not a bad look. Definitely doesn't take the low through the mountains. As for nothing blocking the low we have a reinforcing shot of cold air tonight from a cold front. That's why some are seeing upslope snow tonight again. That high isn't retreating by Friday. It is setting in.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

[Met1985]

00z GEFS looks decent. Doesn't show the low plowing into the cold high pressure.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, dsaur said:

That was my second favorite  storm ever.  Best sledding storm by far.  I had a VW with a studded snow tire on the drive wheel, and we could go anywhere.  Up any hill, so we sledded all over town, but ended up on Amsterdam where we went from the top, over the cross road at the bottom then down to devil's dive, an even steeper hill, but not very long... so it was a good two block run, down between cars parked on both sides. 2am and loving it. Riding tandem so probably doing close to 30.... face down inches from the ice, blinded by tears, steering by instinct...and lived thru it, lol. 

  I was living by Lenox Square at the time and could watch it come down with Davison's all lit up under floods, and it was snow for maybe half an hour and I was chanting the whole time...sleet, sleet, sleet....I've taken credit for that storm via the force of my mantra   I've a steep hill on a county road down here, but not near as long as Amsterdam in midtown.  Amsterdam had cars on both sides, and the county road has a bridge abutment, so you have to go straight. Danger adds spice when you 30, but is totally insane at 77.  I have to slide sitting up now, as if I lie down on the sled, that's probably where they'll find me frozen the next day, lol.

 28 degrees now and just waiting...

 Tony, So it was you that changed 2/1979 to snow very early! Wow, the mystery is finally solved. 

 I was initially very disappointed when the snow changed to sleet way early. Before that there were beautiful flakes accumulating nicely. Little did I know that the sleet would accumulate way more than I thought was even possible and also look as white as snow. Also, I didn’t realize how loud it was. And little did I realize how slow the melting would be in the days to come. Tony, that storm changed my feeling about sleet greatly. From that point on I never again felt negativity about sleet and started to embrace it. I still love snow but since then I’ve loved sleet, too. Sleet isn’t a wicked stepsister to snow anymore. Rather, they’re both beautiful princesses although one is a loudmouth and the other much more reserved.
 The staying power of 4” of sleet likely usually beats that of 12” of snow. What’s not to like about that?

[Awesomesauce81]

27 minutes ago, GaWx said:

From KCHS:

INITIAL "WARM   ADVECTION WING" OF LIGHT PRECIP IS LOOKING NOSE INTO THE LOCAL   FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY WHICH COULD PRESENT   SOME P-TYPE ISSUES FOR INLAND AREAS GIVEN THE LINGERING COLD   AIR. INLAND GFS AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FRIDAY MORNING   SHOW A DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER HOVERING AROUND 0C UP THROUGH ~700   MB AND LOTS OF DRY AIR BELOW WITH WET BULB TEMP PROFILES   COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING...SUGGESTING SOME -SN POTENTIAL.   HOWEVER, GIVEN THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR, ANY PRECIP WILL HAVE A   HARD TIME ACTUALLY REACHING THE SURFACE. THAT SAID, AFTERNOON   FORECAST WILL INTRODUCE A LIGHT SNOW/LIGHT RAIN-SNOW MIX TO   INLAND AREAS FRIDAY MORNING BUT WITH NO ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS   ANTICIPATED (MORE LIKELY SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES).

Claxton, GA forecast:

FRIDAY   CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING, THEN A   CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.   HIGHS AROUND 50. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION   40 PERCENT.

The icon has been showing this little feature consistently since Monday. Maybe my boys in Statesboro will see some flurries 

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, Awesomesauce81 said:

The icon has been showing this little feature consistently since Monday. Maybe my boys in Statesboro will see some flurries 

Yeah, I’ve also been seeing it on many Icon runs! Now the 0Z Euro joins the party as that is its first run showing wintry precip in SE GA. It has light ZR near Statesboro 8-10 AM Fri with temps hovering near 32 and 850 temps of +2 to +3C. It’s its first run showing this not because it is colder but rather because it has precip breaking out earlier. I wonder if this will keep trending more and more that way. Also, It looks like @Shackgets some ZR on this:

 

[dsaur]

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Tony, So it was you that changed 2/1979 to snow very early! Wow, the mystery is finally solved. 

 I was initially very disappointed when the snow changed to sleet way early. Before that there were beautiful flakes accumulating nicely. Little did I know that the sleet would accumulate way more than I thought was even possible and also look as white as snow. Also, I did T realize how loud it was. And little did I realize how slow melting it would in the days to come. Tony, that storm changed my feeling about sleet greatly. From that point on I never again felt negativity about sleet and started to embrace it. I still live snow but since then I’ve loved sleet, too. Sleet isn’t a wicked stepsister to snow. Rather, they’re both beautiful princesses. The staying power of 4” of sleet likely beats that of 12” of snow. What’s not to like about that?

And like you I've come to embrace snow more, if it comes.  I always liked it but sledding on roads was always paramount.  Now my reckless days are past, I can relax and contemplate in the stillness of falling snow...listening to the flakes rubbing against each other as they fall, painting the world in shades of white, with contrasting deep browns and evergreen. 

  And anyway, I've constructed a snow sled out the a slalom ski split down the middle, so I can do grass hills now too, lol. The coming storm as depicted gives me plenty of types to play in, as long as that low stays south.  I don't see how the precip can be frozen being that close to the furnace.  I think the models are still confused even this close to the event.

[WiseWeather]

6z GFS increased totals over the 0z…. Good start to today.


.

[WXNewton]

6z GFS higher totals than 0z.

6z Canadian increases totals too.

6z ICON stay nearly step for step as 0z

6z NAM...still north and not in alignment with other guidance.

09z RAP looks great!

[strongwxnc]

NWS GSP Thursday Morning AFD

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

KEY MESSAGES:

1) A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA FROM 7
AM FRI THROUGH 7 AM SAT. NO CHANGES/UPGRADES WILL BE MADE TO THE
WATCH AT THIS TIME.

2) MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT TOWARD MORE WARM AIR ALOFT AND
THEREFORE MORE MIXED PRECIP ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PART OF THE
AREA, AND MORE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY: 00Z GUIDANCE IS LARGELY STICKING TO ITS
RESPECTIVE CAMPS, WITH THE SLIGHTLY DRIER/COLDER/FARTHER SOUTH
ECMWF, THE QUITE WET AND WARM NAM (WARM AS IN "WARM NOSE"/MORE MIXED
PRECIP AND FREEZING RAIN), AND THE GFS/CANADIAN WHICH REPRESENT MORE
OF A COMPROMISE. HOWEVER, THE LATTER TWO GUIDANCE SOURCES SEEM TO BE
TRENDING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE NAM CAMP, WHILE A CONSENSUS OF THE LAST
SIX HOURS OF THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS ALSO TEND TO PUSH A WARM
NOSE RATHER FAR NORTH INTO THE CWA BY 00Z SATURDAY. AS SUCH, WE'VE
TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD MORE IN THE WAY OF SLEET DEVELOPING AS
FAR NORTH AS THE I-40 CORRIDOR IN THE NC PIEDMONT (AND SOUTHERN TIER
OR TWO OF MOUNTAIN ZONES), AS WELL AS A QUICKER TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS ADDS BOTH COMPLEXITY AND MORE UNCERTAINTY TO
THE FORECAST, AS THERE ARE NOW CONCERNS ABOUT SLEET CUTTING INTO
SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST NC AND NORTHEAST
GA. THESE ARE THE AREAS WHERE WE HERETOFORE HAVE BEEN MOST CONFIDENT
THAT A) ALL PRECIP WILL FALL AS WINTRY PRECIP AND LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE ADEQUATE FOR WINTER STORM
WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET (IF THE PRECIP WERE TO ALL FALL AS SNOW),
BUT MORE SLEET WOULD PLACE A RATHER LARGE FLY IN THAT OINTMENT.

MEANWHILE, CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST ACCUMS REMAINS MODERATE AT MOST
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DUE TO EITHER CONCERNS ABOUT
ADEQUATE LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP (MOST OF OUR NC ZONES OUTSIDE THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS), CONCERNS ABOUT MIXED PRECIP BEING THE PRIMARY
PRECIP TYPE (MUCH OF UPSTATE SC) AND/OR THE POTENTIAL THAT A FEW
AREAS MAY SEE A TRANSITION TO PLAIN OLD RAIN BEFORE ANY WARNING
CRITERIA IS REACHED (BECOMING AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LAKELANDS AND VICINITY). IN FACT, OUR CURRENT
OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT FEATURE WARNING CRITERIA SNOW OR ICE
OUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWEST NC/NORTHEAST GA AREA (WHERE
WE ARE STILL FORECASTING GENERAL 3-6" TOTALS). HOWEVER, WITH THE
INCREASE IN FREEZING RAIN...AND A SWATH OF 0.1"-0.25" ICE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR, WE DO HAVE SOME LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH OF
I-85 IN THE UPSTATE AND GEORGIA THAT ARE CLOSE TO THE 1/4 INCH
THRESHOLD. ALL THIS IS TO SAY THAT...IN COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES, NO UPGRADES OR CHANGES TO THE WINTER STORM
WATCH WILL OCCUR ON THIS SHIFT. HAVING SAID THAT, THE POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF OUR AREA...PERHAPS THE GREATEST CONCERN
AT THIS POINT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BONAFIDE ICE STORM TO
MATERIALIZE FOR A PART OF THE AREA IF GUIDANCE TRENDS FURTHER TOWARD
A STRONGER/MORE ADVECTIVE/WETTER SOLUTION.

PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF AND SKIES CLEAR QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT EARLY
SATURDAY, WITH A RESUMPTION OF DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM, WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO SATURDAY AND SAT
NIGHT. IN FACT, SAT NIGHT COULD PROVE TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST
NIGHTS OF THE SEASON OVER ANY LINGERING AREAS OF SNOWPACK.

[WiseWeather]

NWS GSP Thursday Morning AFD

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

KEY MESSAGES:

1) A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA FROM 7
AM FRI THROUGH 7 AM SAT. NO CHANGES/UPGRADES WILL BE MADE TO THE
WATCH AT THIS TIME.

2) MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT TOWARD MORE WARM AIR ALOFT AND
THEREFORE MORE MIXED PRECIP ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PART OF THE
AREA, AND MORE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY: 00Z GUIDANCE IS LARGELY STICKING TO ITS
RESPECTIVE CAMPS, WITH THE SLIGHTLY DRIER/COLDER/FARTHER SOUTH
ECMWF, THE QUITE WET AND WARM NAM (WARM AS IN "WARM NOSE"/MORE MIXED
PRECIP AND FREEZING RAIN), AND THE GFS/CANADIAN WHICH REPRESENT MORE
OF A COMPROMISE. HOWEVER, THE LATTER TWO GUIDANCE SOURCES SEEM TO BE
TRENDING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE NAM CAMP, WHILE A CONSENSUS OF THE LAST
SIX HOURS OF THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS ALSO TEND TO PUSH A WARM
NOSE RATHER FAR NORTH INTO THE CWA BY 00Z SATURDAY. AS SUCH, WE'VE
TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD MORE IN THE WAY OF SLEET DEVELOPING AS
FAR NORTH AS THE I-40 CORRIDOR IN THE NC PIEDMONT (AND SOUTHERN TIER
OR TWO OF MOUNTAIN ZONES), AS WELL AS A QUICKER TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS ADDS BOTH COMPLEXITY AND MORE UNCERTAINTY TO
THE FORECAST, AS THERE ARE NOW CONCERNS ABOUT SLEET CUTTING INTO
SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST NC AND NORTHEAST
GA. THESE ARE THE AREAS WHERE WE HERETOFORE HAVE BEEN MOST CONFIDENT
THAT A) ALL PRECIP WILL FALL AS WINTRY PRECIP AND LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE ADEQUATE FOR WINTER STORM
WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET (IF THE PRECIP WERE TO ALL FALL AS SNOW),
BUT MORE SLEET WOULD PLACE A RATHER LARGE FLY IN THAT OINTMENT.

MEANWHILE, CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST ACCUMS REMAINS MODERATE AT MOST
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DUE TO EITHER CONCERNS ABOUT
ADEQUATE LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP (MOST OF OUR NC ZONES OUTSIDE THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS), CONCERNS ABOUT MIXED PRECIP BEING THE PRIMARY
PRECIP TYPE (MUCH OF UPSTATE SC) AND/OR THE POTENTIAL THAT A FEW
AREAS MAY SEE A TRANSITION TO PLAIN OLD RAIN BEFORE ANY WARNING
CRITERIA IS REACHED (BECOMING AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LAKELANDS AND VICINITY). IN FACT, OUR CURRENT
OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT FEATURE WARNING CRITERIA SNOW OR ICE
OUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWEST NC/NORTHEAST GA AREA (WHERE
WE ARE STILL FORECASTING GENERAL 3-6" TOTALS). HOWEVER, WITH THE
INCREASE IN FREEZING RAIN...AND A SWATH OF 0.1"-0.25" ICE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR, WE DO HAVE SOME LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH OF
I-85 IN THE UPSTATE AND GEORGIA THAT ARE CLOSE TO THE 1/4 INCH
THRESHOLD. ALL THIS IS TO SAY THAT...IN COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES, NO UPGRADES OR CHANGES TO THE WINTER STORM
WATCH WILL OCCUR ON THIS SHIFT. HAVING SAID THAT, THE POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF OUR AREA...PERHAPS THE GREATEST CONCERN
AT THIS POINT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BONAFIDE ICE STORM TO
MATERIALIZE FOR A PART OF THE AREA IF GUIDANCE TRENDS FURTHER TOWARD
A STRONGER/MORE ADVECTIVE/WETTER SOLUTION.

PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF AND SKIES CLEAR QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT EARLY
SATURDAY, WITH A RESUMPTION OF DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM, WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO SATURDAY AND SAT
NIGHT. IN FACT, SAT NIGHT COULD PROVE TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST
NIGHTS OF THE SEASON OVER ANY LINGERING AREAS OF SNOWPACK.

The next part was the best part


.

[WiseWeather]

6z GFS higher totals than 0z.
6z Canadian increases totals too.
6z ICON stay nearly step for step as 0z
6z NAM...still north and not in alignment with other guidance.
09z RAP looks great!

How has the RAP done in previous winter events around here? Specifically Jan 2022. Most of the globals had us around 3-4in for my area. We ended up with 7+.


.

[WXNewton]

Just now, WiseWeather said:

How has the RAP done in previous winter events around here? Specifically Jan 2022. Most of the globals had us around 3-4in for my area. We ended up with 7+.


.

Not sure on that one, maybe someone else can chime in on that. I would think it might perform better under 15 hrs or so out, it does show some mixing as far north as the I40 corridor, but seems to have heavier precip (bands) being modeled as well.

[WiseWeather]

Not sure on that one, maybe someone else can chime in on that. I would think it might perform better under 15 hrs or so out, it does show some mixing as far north as the I40 corridor, but seems to have heavier precip (bands) being modeled as well.

It also shows some interesting past concepts that are known for our area. Like the snow to sleet back to snow that seems to happen a lot in the foothills with these systems.


.

[strongwxnc]

.

[olafminesaw]

Latest GRAF is solid

https://x.com/AndrewWMBF/status/1877304541500109179

[Regan]

Start time for precip as sparsely reported on some stations still and seems to be a huge window of time still. Seeing anywhere between 3pm to 8pm for Wake. Hope they pin this down better for commutes/schools. Hoping schools bite the bullet and just close early to get kids home. Some k5 don’t get home til 5 or after as well as some charter transportation for k12. 
 

Opinions on start time for Rowan, Guilford, and Wake?

[olafminesaw]

Be careful with precip type maps! The NAM seems to be overplaying the ZR, this sounding for Raleigh area would likely be sleet, especially with that much lift. 

[Brick Tamland]

Woke up to a Winter Storm Watch. Hope the models continue to be good and the NAM gets in line with the others.

[wake4est]

6 minutes ago, Regan said:

Start time for precip as sparsely reported on some stations still and seems to be a huge window of time still. Seeing anywhere between 3pm to 8pm for Wake. Hope they pin this down better for commutes/schools. Hoping schools bite the bullet and just close early to get kids home. Some k5 don’t get home til 5 or after as well as some charter transportation for k12. 
 

Opinions on start time for Rowan, Guilford, and Wake?

The WSWatch starts at 1:00pm tomorrow for us in Wake. I would almost guarantee that they will do an early release tomorrow, even though the snow doesn't rally arrive until closer to dinner time

[QC_Halo]

Whoever wrote that FD for GSP, couldn’t contain their weenieness.

[suzook]

7 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Be careful with precip type maps! The NAM seems to be overplaying the ZR, this sounding for Raleigh area would likely be sleet, especially with that much lift. 

Yes, snow maps can't be trusted, with all the sleet, and zr.

[GunBlade]

58 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

.

That verifies. It has the Asheville snow hole 

[suzook]

16 minutes ago, Regan said:

Start time for precip as sparsely reported on some stations still and seems to be a huge window of time still. Seeing anywhere between 3pm to 8pm for Wake. Hope they pin this down better for commutes/schools. Hoping schools bite the bullet and just close early to get kids home. Some k5 don’t get home til 5 or after as well as some charter transportation for k12. 
 

Opinions on start time for Rowan, Guilford, and Wake?

The whole state of Georgia has shut down Friday already. Definitely different down here than up north.

[lilj4425]

9 minutes ago, QC_Halo said:

Whoever wrote that FD for GSP, couldn’t contain their weenieness.

@isohumeis our hero. 

[QC_Halo]

Was reading some FD’s for N. MS. They have pushed the snow line north over there.

[buckeyefan1]

6 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

@isohumeis our hero. 

He’s enjoying retirement, but as we could read, his winter weenie legacy lives on