January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Plenty Cold

[BornAgain13]

18z ICON ticked back up in Precip! Let's go!!

[sarcean]

3 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

It's like Allan knows where I live drawing his B/E line lol

Charlotte area is going to have a wild gradient between SC suburbs, Mooresville/Lake Norman, and Gastonia where a short distance will make all the difference

[BornAgain13]

Has anyone noticed in the long range their are no signs of much warmth? Staying cold for quite some time!

[btownheel]

Speaking of the RGEM.

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[BornAgain13]

18z RGEM went up in Precip as well!

[strongwxnc]

3 minutes ago, btownheel said:

.

We hug!

[olafminesaw]

3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

18z RGEM went up in Precip as well!

Perhaps 18z will at least stop the bleeding if not start moving back the other way!

[WinstonSalemArlington]

4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Has anyone noticed in the long range their are no signs of much warmth? Staying cold for quite some time!

Yep, we’ve been discussing that on the Longrange thread.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

With this outStanding cold, at least we know that whatever falls will instantly stick!

[BornAgain13]

1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

With this outStanding cold, at least we know that whatever falls will instantly stick!

No doubt about it. The ground is frigid!

[HKY_WX]

NC-IMBY post. The models continue to key in on a band setting up over i85. Whoever find themselves in that band will likely be where the highest totals fall in NC. Outside of the southwest mountains, the RDPS has consistently shown the highest total along i77 from Statesville to Huntersville (roughly 5 inches).

 

[eyewall]

1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

With this outStanding cold, at least we know that whatever falls will instantly stick!

Yep soil temp bust is not an issue here.

[BornAgain13]

Just now, HKY_WX said:

NC-IMBY post. The models continue to key in on a band setting up over i85. Whoever find themselves in that band will likely be where the highest totals fall in NC. Outside of the southwest mountains, it has consistently shown the highest total along i77 from Statesville to Huntersville (roughly 5 inches).

 

Any chance the QPF can beef up anymore as we get closer?

[strongwxnc]

2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

NC-IMBY post. The models continue to key in on a band setting up over i85. Whoever find themselves in that band will likely be where the highest totals fall in NC. Outside of the southwest mountains, the RDPS has consistently shown the highest total along i77 from Statesville to Huntersville (roughly 5 inches).

 

 

I will take that down here in the southern foothills.

[BooneWX]

4 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

NC-IMBY post. The models continue to key in on a band setting up over i85. Whoever find themselves in that band will likely be where the highest totals fall in NC. Outside of the southwest mountains, it has consistently shown the highest total along i77 from Statesville to Huntersville (roughly 5 inches).

 

I will say - this fits the typical footprint of a southern slider

[Ja643y]

Can anyone explain to me the little maximum that’s been showing in a band through Mitchell and McDowell counties? 

[SnowGoose69]

RGEM maybe did tick towards the NAM slightly, could be noise but there was a 20-25 mile shift N for a good portion of the run.  Still have to watch this closely for areas on the edge

[HKY_WX]

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

I will say - this fits the typical footprint of a southern slider

I agree, if you look at the likely SLP track. the above makes the most sense to me. Just fits climatology. There's  reason GSP has WSWs and RDU is showing 1 to 2 inches (they are historical pretty conservative). This isn't a major storm but if we manage to screw up and not get a few inches out of it we are truly cursed.

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

29 minutes ago, btownheel said:

.

I'd kill for a Cedar Swamp, 12" of fresh powder and some sticky buns. 

[jburns]

35 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Plenty Cold

Remember when we used to just call this winter?

Pepperidge Farm remembers.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[BornAgain13]

18z GFS with another increase in QPF. Showing 3-5" in southern VA and points North a little. 

[strongwxnc]

Latest from gsp

https://www.weather.gov/media/gsp/YouTube/brief.pdf


.

[StantonParkHoya]

I85 corridor stays all snow

[EarlGrey]

1 hour ago, Brick Tamland said:

Speaking of the RGEM.

That’s almost perfect.

[calculus1]

18 hours ago, calculus1 said:

...

So, put that all together, and I went out on a limb with a forecast of 0-12 inches for Hickory. Bank on it!

I feel like NWS GSP copied my initial forecast from yesterday:

Quote

Unfortunately, there`s still a lot of room for error, and a lot of
time for the forecast to change.  If low-level profiles get even a
tiny bit warmer, it`ll mean less sleet and more ice.  If the warm
nose gets stronger...less snow, more ice.  If the system speeds
up, QPF, which continues exhibit a lot of spread among ensembles,
could change, which would alter both snow and ice totals.  It looks
increasingly likely, though, that the Upstate won`t escape at least
a small amount of ice, and that zones as far north as I-40 will
be under the gun for some sleet.  Dreams of an all-snow forecast?
Quashed.

That sounds like 0-12 inches to me.

[HKY_WX]

2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I85 corridor stays all snow

This will be an impressive storm for Arkansas. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]