January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor

[wncsnow]

Yep. We are in trouble. If it keeps trending this way it will be a nothing burger for NC. Can the streak really go on? The 3 year mark is fast approaching

 

[BooneWX]

RGEM vs everybody 

[NorthHillsWx]

Hello darkness my old friend 

[eyewall]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Yep. We are in trouble. If it keeps trending this way it will be a nothing burger for NC. Can the streak really go on? The 3 year mark is fast approaching

 

Oh it certainly can, especially given the changing climate.

[GunBlade]

It's been so many years it's hard to remember. However, I feel like almost all miller a storms went through this trend. They were amped up and juicy, 2 days before models lost it, got warm, lost precipitation and more then began to bring it back in and settle on a solution in between the two extremes. Wouldn't be surprised to see these massive shifts settle to an intermediate solution throughout the day with finer details beginning to come in to focus tomorrow.

[BooneWX]

Man if I saw this surface map with zero context, I’d say WNC is about to get 6+


.

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

Man if I saw this surface map with zero context, I’d say WNC is about to get 6+


.

Wild isn't it? 

[BooneWX]

Just now, wncsnow said:

Wild isn't it? 

It really is. From the moisture going poof to the thermals. It just has an absolute textbook look for CAD regions at that hour. I can’t recall if I’ve ever seen anything like it. I’ve seen plenty of moisture robbed/mixing issue storms but not with a storm that well organized and thumping that hard just to the west. It used to be that if you saw Ark - upper mid south getting hit that hard, you better get your shovels ready.

[WNC_Fort]

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

Man if I saw this surface map with zero context, I’d say WNC is about to get 6+


.

Right? From this frame I see a December 2009 incoming. Instead a dud. I expect just flurries at this point

[Upstate Tiger]

Blocking, blocking, my kingdom for some blocking

[WXNewton]

1 minute ago, WNC_Fort said:

Right? From this frame I see a December 2009 incoming. Instead a dud. I expect just flurries at this point

 

1 minute ago, WNC_Fort said:

Right? From this frame I see a December 2009 incoming. Instead a dud. I expect just flurries at this point

I said the exact thing, crazy....

[ncjoaquin]

1 minute ago, WNC_Fort said:

Right? From this frame I see a December 2009 incoming. Instead a dud. I expect just flurries at this point

2025, party over, oops, out of time. Tonight we're going to party like it's 2009.

I've not totally given up yet, but I thought that the song fit. 

[WXNewton]

The HRRR will save us all!

[BooneWX]

3 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

The HRRR will save us all!

The HRRR absolutely cooked with the 2022 storm. Pretty much the only short range model that jumped on the bandwagon for the front end thump first.

[stormwatcherJ]

So with the dynamics now changing, who is in store for the biggest snow from this? The northeast? Mid-Atlantic?  Or a dud altogether? 

[wake4est]

1 minute ago, stormwatcherJ said:

So with the dynamics now changing, who is in store for the biggest snow from this? The northeast? Mid-Atlantic?  Or a dud altogether? 

Central Tennessee

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, stormwatcherJ said:

So with the dynamics now changing, who is in store for the biggest snow from this? The northeast? Mid-Atlantic?  Or a dud altogether? 

Most of TN and NRN GA closer to the TN border is the area I'd be most confident in now for snow amounts.  Beginning to think even down close to ATL could see 2-3 inches though before it flips, especially if some type of mesoscale banding happens.

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

The HRRR absolutely cooked with the 2022 storm. Pretty much the only short range model that jumped on the bandwagon for the front end thump first.

Yeah, and I don't think we'll really know until the precip starts falling if poor dynamics or the help of mid-level warm advection will win out. Both elements tend to be poorly modeled with less data from the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere

[HWY316wx]

"WE" are not out of this by a long shot.  Georgia above I-20 well in play.

 

[SnowDawg]

Man, those NAM thermals are soul crushing for as good as things have looked for North GA over the past 48 hours. Only saving grace for now is I don't think these CAM models are reliable at the end of their range. Still showing at 18-24 hours out then might as well throw in the towel.

[BooneWX]

If we’re searching for a win, the GRAF is colder + more moisture

[Brick Tamland]

All we can hope for now is a Christmas 2010 miracle.

[WXNewton]

12z Nam yesterday vs today, big change for Texas and Arkansas, so maybe as we get closer we can see some positive trends in short range. Seems like we went through a similar situation where models lost the Jan 22 storm only to trend better right before go time. Maybe I am only wishful thinking.

[NGTim]

seems almost every storm that hits, there is always a period where the models lose it, then get it back again (if it is destined to happen).  I thought that would have occurred a day or so ago but it didn't.  hoping this is just the normal pump the brakes, then back to full speed ahead of a glorious Friday for all (or most) of us. 

[SnowGoose69]

8 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Man, those NAM thermals are soul crushing for as good as things have looked for North GA over the past 48 hours. Only saving grace for now is I don't think these CAM models are reliable at the end of their range. Still showing at 18-24 hours out then might as well throw in the towel.

The RGEM is usually okay at 48-54 and not awful from 54-84.  The 12km NAM can be really bad past 42-48 though the degree of badness can vary storm to storm.  3km NAM I trust only inside 30-36.  Today for example the 3Km NAM at 48-60 over AL/GA/TN more resembles the RGEM/GFS than it down its own 12km counterpart which was very far north 

[EverythingisEverything]

I remember Dec 2010 when the models trended higher at the last minute.  

[Joe Clark]

6 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

If we’re searching for a win, the GRAF is colder + more moisture

Didnt the GRAF lead the way with the drier weaker trend we've seen in the last 18 hours? 

[BooneWX]

3 minutes ago, Joe Clark said:

Didnt the GRAF lead the way with the drier weaker trend we've seen in the last 18 hours? 

It did indeed. Also nailed this past weekend’s event. It was the only model to show the burst of snow that impacted N NC.

[StantonParkHoya]

Very rare day when northern AL wins and Roxboro, NC — snow capital of the Piedmont — loses

[olafminesaw]

GRAF looks great for Atlanta

https://x.com/RodneyHarrisTV/status/1876981103870812395