January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor

[Brick Tamland]

 

[SnowGoose69]

10 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Nam 3k and FV3 are colder than the Nam 12k for NC. That’s a good thing.

The NAM is probably too warm and amped.  Prior to 36 hours there’s a tendency for that 

[wncsnow]

ICON is weak and dry 

[wncsnow]

Writing is on the wall it seems. Hope they don't jump the gun with a winter storm watch. Seems winter weather advisory level

[GaWx]

12Z Icon “snow”

 

6Z Icon “snow” but 850s are +1 to +3C:

 

[Brick Tamland]

ICON is colder but with less precip.

[eyewall]

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

ICON is colder but with less precip.

Nice southern GA jackpot LOL.

[suzook]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z Icon “snow”

 

6Z Icon “snow”

This is just weird.

[BooneWX]

This is all I got for eye candy.


.

[olafminesaw]

Oof!

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, suzook said:

This is just weird.

12Z Icon 850s are +1C to +3C and thicknesses near 552 dm in this area of S GA showing as snow. If I thought this was real I wouldn’t be considering driving 250+ miles to what could end up mainly as an icestorm.

[BooneWX]

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Oof!

There’s a non zero chance folks in NC can stop tracking by 0Z

[Brick Tamland]

RDPS

[HKY_WX]

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

RDPS

This is honestly the most realistic scenario among the models. I am going with the below:

 

 

[SnowGoose69]

The RGEM is not nearly as far north as the NAM is

[BooneWX]

@GaWx do you recall how the RGEM performed with Sunday’s setup? I vaguely remember it doing well.

[purduewx80]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z Icon 850s are +1C to +3C and thicknesses near 552 dm in this area of S GA showing as snow. If I thought this was real I wouldn’t be considering driving 250+ miles to what could end up mainly as an icestorm.

Looking at soundings, its wetbulb temps are mostly near to below freezing, with a warm nose around 700mb, implying sleet may occur at onset in parts of S GA. The snow depth and Kuchera maps are much lower. 

[olafminesaw]

Hopefully we can reverse the trend this evening 

[BooneWX]

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

Hopefully we can reverse the trend this evening 

I’m desperately in need of some happy hour fun! (I’m talking about drinking by the way)

[NorthHillsWx]

RGEM was a fine run. ICON though weak did drop 1-3” of all snow for a lot on here

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

@GaWx do you recall how the RGEM performed with Sunday’s setup? I vaguely remember it doing well.

I do not recall.

[QC_Halo]

1 hour ago, BooneWX said:

Fwiw, it is a more moist run overall, so there’s that.

That’s so hot..

[BooneWX]

It’d be absolutely hilarious for the GFS and Euro to come in with big hits

[Tony Sisk]

24 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

This is honestly the most realistic scenario among the models. I am going with the below:

 

 

Could not have drawn it up any better

[strongwxnc]

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

It’d be absolutely hilarious for the GFS and Euro to come in with big hits

Yesterday my statement was lets get inside of 24 hr out. Still a ways to go.

 

[wncsnow]

GFS is not good

[Snow dog]

3 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said:

Could not have drawn it up any better

I'll take this map and run!  2-4", with a bit of sleet /fz rain on top would be an awesome event here!

[BooneWX]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

GFS is not good

Very similar to the NAM

[wncsnow]

[eyewall]

Ouch this is awful. There is no doubt about it. We may be cooked on this one.