January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor

[Snow dog]

For the  Upstate/Georgia folks..

 

[Snow dog]

I might need to drive over to my place on Hartwell Thursday night and set up over there (Fair Play)!  This map showing upwards of 4"!

[franklin NCwx]

7 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Anyone have the 6z Euro?

And AI

[Tony Sisk]

8 minutes ago, Snow dog said:

Would you mind terribly to include the SC folks in that map?

 

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, suzook said:

Wow! So an even worse ice storm for Atlanta and North GA, I'm going back to bed. When I wake up later, getting my generator ready. 

The RGEM/Euro now show ATL north might see a decent amount of snow/sleet before they flip to FZRA.  The problem is they are so close to being dry slotted because the WAA precip shield more or less only runs about 30-40 miles south of ATL on northeast.  So a shift of 30 miles and there may be next to no precip falling at all.

[GaWx]

6Z Icon: this isn’t real. Otherwise I wouldn’t consider driving to the ATL area.

 850s are +1C to +3C and 2m temps are near or just above 32F. So it could be from sleet. But QPF is only ~0.25 max in the E portion for that period. The model is treating it like snow! 0.25” in form of sleet couldn’t accumulate that much.

 

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

6Z Icon: this isn’t real

Once you get inside 72 hours of a setup that is not exactly simple the ICON can start doing funny things.  Part of that is the other models just are way better than the ICON at that range.  Its in the Day 4-7 period the ICON can often school the NAM at the end of its run or the GFS/CMC at times.  Inside of that it will do odd stuff those models are just better at not falling into

[sarcean]

[Brick Tamland]

NAM at 33.

[suzook]

12Z nam showing that high more Northward, that could spell trouble. Still running though.

[Buddy1987]

Nam actually looks a bit better with moisture on the north side, as well as with the backside energy. See if it does anything.. 

[Brick Tamland]

NAM looks pretty good with precip to me.

[BooneWX]

Well let’s see if the bleeding has stopped at all. NAM is more moist this run. 

[BooneWX]

Less positive tilt more neutral 

[Brick Tamland]

[BooneWX]

This storm is setting up to absolutely break some hearts in the mid south

[CentralNC]

Just now, BooneWX said:

This storm is setting up to absolutely break some hearts in the mid south

Someone is always gonna get screwed

[Justicebork]

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

This storm is setting up to absolutely break some hearts in the mid south

What is dead can never die.

[StoneColdWeatherAustin]

SREF Plumes currently at .46 Total QPF and 2.48 Total SNO for KGSO at 9z.  Was at 2.52 and .42 at 3z.

[wncsnow]

Precipitation looks better but there's gonna be p type issues for many 

[Upstate Tiger]

8 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Less positive tilt more neutral 

This is what to look for.  Got to get back to negative tilt sooner.
 

if not, I’ve seen this too many times in my 50 years of winter weather watching, there will be a lot of disappointed folks. 

[NorthHillsWx]

NAM is warm. Don’t think it even snows in triangle 

[Brick Tamland]

[NorthHillsWx]

If you wanted snow look away from this NAM run lol

[wncsnow]

Sleet even for the mountains lol

[sarcean]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

NAM is warm. Don’t think it even snows in triangle 

NAM is a joke with thermals - do not trust NAM for precip type...or amounts.

[NorthHillsWx]

Yea this is ugly. 

[wncsnow]

Good old IP storm 

[BooneWX]

Fwiw, it is a more moist run overall, so there’s that.

[Brick Tamland]