January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor

[LithiaWx]

8 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

6z GFS just a total dumpster fire

N. GA front end snow thump followed by ice ice baby. 

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

12 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

6z GFS just a total dumpster fire

[olafminesaw]

The GRAF shows what the Euro has been showing for days, dry air cutting into our totals.

https://x.com/TimBuckleyWX/status/1876817819913912685

[BornAgain13]

It looks like the bleeding from overnight has stopped... Hopefully we see things trend back upwards today 

[WiseWeather]

I think i finally know what it feels like to be a who and wake up on christmas morning to your presents being stolen.


.

[BooneWX]

I can’t speak for everyone but I just find the whole situation hilarious for western NC. It’s painfully ironic that we’ve had as much rain and moisture as we’ve had these past few months and THIS system is going to be the one to buck the trend. There’s my whining for the day. Carry on. Congrats to Texas to Tenn for the 600+ time in 3 years.

[lilj4425]

I feel like a Carolina Panthers fan. I’m gonna go ahead and blame the wildfires in Los Angeles for this system drying up. Maybe I will still see a few flurries this weekend. Probably not but you never know. 

[suzook]

Wow! So an even worse ice storm for Atlanta and North GA, I'm going back to bed. When I wake up later, getting my generator ready. 

[Brick Tamland]

I will be okay with getting 1 to 2 inches of snow. At least something is better than nothing. I just don't like the trends since yesterday. I think today is going to be very telling in what eventually happens. 

[snowinnc]

I’m usually one to throw in the towel early and give up at the first sight of bad models, but not this time. RDU has been snow starved for way too long, so i’m going to do my best to keep being positive until it’s painfully obvious that it’s not going to work. Hopefully that won’t happen though.

[olafminesaw]

Good call I think , at least for the Piedmont 

[WXNewton]

6z GFS slightly increased precip throughout much of NC but the problem is more mixing issues with a little further north low. I guess it's splitting hairs at this point, it's hard to get more moisture without causing mixing issues. 

[eyewall]

We all know there is going to be some back and forth from run to run at this point. This is my latest call:

 

 

[olafminesaw]

[Upstate Tiger]

GSP.  As we all saw last night, less phasing less precip.  Still early for specifics. 
 

As of 250 am Wednesday: A cold and very dry air mass will remain in
place in association with arctic surface high pressure during the
first half of the short term. A short wave trough will then eject
from Texas Fri/Fri night, with the wave becoming increasingly
dampened and vorticity increasingly channeled as it progresses
across the Southeast. An attendant cyclone will track along the Gulf
Coast Friday before pushing off the South Carolina Coast early
Saturday. This track will allow frontogenetical forcing to wring out
precip across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia by Friday
afternoon before tapering off Friday night, with categorical PoPs of
80-90% warranted across the entire forecast area during this time
frame. In terms of precip types and amounts...the overall trend in
the consensus of global and short term guidance is toward less
phasing of the southern and northern branches of the upper jet, and
toward a more suppressed/farther south/slightly weaker and colder
scenario for the Southeast.

[BooneWX]

The GRAF fired the warning shot last night before the 0Z data came in. 

[Brick Tamland]

How is it so hard to get things to come together for just one good snow storm here each winter?

[suzook]

Quiet in here, did everyone jump off the cliff?

[olafminesaw]

5 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

GSP.  As we all saw last night, less phasing less precip.  Still early for specifics. 
 

As of 250 am Wednesday: A cold and very dry air mass will remain in
place in association with arctic surface high pressure during the
first half of the short term. A short wave trough will then eject
from Texas Fri/Fri night, with the wave becoming increasingly
dampened and vorticity increasingly channeled as it progresses
across the Southeast. An attendant cyclone will track along the Gulf
Coast Friday before pushing off the South Carolina Coast early
Saturday. This track will allow frontogenetical forcing to wring out
precip across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia by Friday
afternoon before tapering off Friday night, with categorical PoPs of
80-90% warranted across the entire forecast area during this time
frame. In terms of precip types and amounts...the overall trend in
the consensus of global and short term guidance is toward less
phasing of the southern and northern branches of the upper jet, and
toward a more suppressed/farther south/slightly weaker and colder
scenario for the Southeast.

Yep, hopefully we can trend back the other way a bit. Perhaps the front end thump will over-perform if a stronger storm verifies, which i think is what the 6z GFS trended towards, rather than trying to rely on back end phasing (which also would mean more mixing)

[wake4est]

1 minute ago, suzook said:

Quiet in here, did everyone jump off the cliff?

Between model runs

[NorthHillsWx]

1-2” then a glaze of ice color me happy

[olafminesaw]

Can we cash this out?

[eyewall]

7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

1-2” then a glaze of ice color me happy

yeah at this point I'll take it!

[wncsnow]

The northern stream is the main culprit for the lower totals. But then again, if it isn't squashed, it's probably a mixed mess even for the foothills and mountains. No true CAD high in place. 

[StantonParkHoya]

2 inches is honestly perfect. Just give me 4-6 hours of afternoon/evening viewing with some nice bourbon, a few hours Saturday morning to build a snowman with the kids, and then it can melt off.

[Brick Tamland]

9 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Can we cash this out?

I'll take it.

[Snow dog]

8 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Can we cash this out?

Would you mind terribly to include the SC folks in that map?

[Brick Tamland]

2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

2 inches is honestly perfect. Just give me 4-6 hours of afternoon/evening viewing with some nice bourbon, a few hours Saturday morning to build a snowman with the kids, and then it can melt off.

Sounds great.

[wncsnow]

Anyone have the 6z Euro?

[olafminesaw]

5 minutes ago, Snow dog said:

Would you mind terribly to include the SC folks in that map?

Here's GSP's map