January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor

[StantonParkHoya]

Nearing end of their useful range but 0z GEFS notably drier

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Fellow wx weenies, I need some advice. If you were in Savannah with no chance for wintry precip, would you drive 4-5 hours to N Gwinnett county (NE of ATL) on Thu if family or friends offered you a room to stay in for the weekend and enjoy it with them? It is a few miles S of the Mall of GA.

 This could easily be ATL’s biggest winter storm in 11 years and years til the next major one. I haven’t seen a flake or pellet in 7 years! But I’m worried ATL is going to get mainly ZR. While ice looks pretty and would be exciting to see, heavy ZR could mean long outages/no TV/cold inside and no snow or sleet to look at and walk in. So, it could get miserable. If I knew it were going to be nearly all snow and sleet, it would be an easy decision.

 Weenies, what would you do?

I think you need to wait til Thu AM to know.  The 18Z Euro looked better for ATL, cannot put much stock in the GFS, NAM is out of range.  I think once the NAM/RGEM are inside 48 we'd have a better idea.  The flatter this is the more likely that area sees mainly snow but at same time they'd have hard time getting over 3-4 inches at best.

[btownheel]

Stay the course, fellow nerds. First thing worth tracking in like three years. Let it come.


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[BornAgain13]

As expected, the 0z GEFS is a big step down from 18z. 

[BornAgain13]

Ughhh... The 0z UK is very dry 

[wncsnow]

UK is a disaster for snow lovers east of the Apps. 

[wxdawg10]

lol. 

[Regan]

Maybe everyone should just go to bed and show those models who’s boss. Been coming here for years. I have learned a lot and I’m grateful, but the constant doom at the flux is difficult. 

[sarcean]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

UK is a disaster for snow lovers east of the Apps. 

Charlotte area still scores there  

But can't remember the last time relied on a model like the UK to get a snowstorm right 

 

 

[SnowGoose69]

I think the 12Z Euro/EPS really faked everyone out as it joined the RGEM/UKMET that cycle and was north.  18Z went right back south, that 00Z UKMET snow map looks very close to the 18Z Euro.  Still this is far enough out more surprises might happen

[dsaur]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Fellow wx weenies, I need some advice. If you were in Savannah with no chance for wintry precip, would you drive 4-5 hours to N Gwinnett county (NE of ATL) on Thu if family or friends offered you a room to stay in for the weekend and enjoy it with them? It is a few miles S of the Mall of GA.

 This could easily be ATL’s biggest winter storm in 11 years and years til the next major one. I haven’t seen a flake or pellet in 7 years! But I’m worried ATL is going to get mainly ZR. While ice looks pretty and would be exciting to see, heavy ZR could mean long outages/no TV/cold inside and no snow or sleet to look at and walk in. So, it could get miserable. If I knew it were going to be nearly all snow and sleet, it would be an easy decision.

 Weenies, what would you do?

Well, you've wondered what 73 was like, lol.  This won't be 3 or 4 inches, but if it goes bad it will be pretty bad, so you could get a flavor of it.  And if it's all snow and sleet, you'd get to sled on the roads. And take walks in a wonder land. All those ballasts exploding and limbs and trees falling all night.... and the poles down everywhere with live wires... is scary as can be, so it's like a forced horror fun amusement park from hell with out the rabid clowns. People  pay to get scared, and you will be scared

[wxdawg10]

3 minutes ago, Regan said:

Maybe everyone should just go to bed and show those models who’s boss. Been coming here for years. I have learned a lot and I’m grateful, but the constant doom at the flux is difficult. 

My friend..this is a tale as old as time. i'll give you some advice.  Always remember that storms will always trend towards a drier, warmer, or northern solution. Those are the default settings. Us folks in the south need to go 3 for 3. Always an uphill battle.  Lower your expectations.

[Regan]

2 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said:

My friend..this is a tale as old as time. i'll give you some advice.  Always remember that storms will always trend towards a drier, warmer, or northern solution. Those are the default settings. Us folks in the south need to go 3 for 3. Always an uphill battle.  Lower your expectations.

I have zero expectations for the weather here. I know how it goes here in central NC. I was born and raised here. I was just saying the freak outs cloud the info. I was making light of it by saying everyone should go to bed. Let it ride. 

[snowmaker13]

Dr No wins again. Never bet against the Euro again IMO

[wncsnow]

We need more of a NNE movement of the precipitation not ENE. That's one reason it's so dry over NC. Plus the trough is too progressive and trending more positive last few runs

[QC_Halo]

10 hours ago, QC_Halo said:

How long has it been since the last major board meltdown? Has to have been years at this point. 

☝

[wncsnow]

Canadian is finally coming in and it also has less precipitation across nc. 

[wncsnow]

Euro is pretty steady but slightly less than 12z

[wxdawg10]

30 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

We need more of a NNE movement of the precipitation not ENE. That's one reason it's so dry over NC. Plus the trough is too progressive and trending more positive last few runs

time to put a fork in this one. There are signs of an early february torch to be excited about

[snowinnc]

6 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said:

time to put a fork in this one. There are signs of an early february torch to be excited about

I hate that you’re probably right. I actually felt good about this one too! At this point I would be happy for a dusting.

[lilj4425]

14 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said:

time to put a fork in this one. There are signs of an early february torch to be excited about

At least my electric bill will be lower.  

[KChuck]

Corollary for a watched pot never boils is a watched model never pleases. 

[KChuck]

Lilj4425 I believe that the floor is yours! 

[NorthHillsWx]

Jan 2022 was completely lost on the models at this point and started showing up again 36 hours before go time.

[WiseWeather]

Jan 2022 was completely lost on the models at this point and started showing up again 36 hours before go time.

It also over performed.


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[snowinnc]

32 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Jan 2022 was completely lost on the models at this point and started showing up again 36 hours before go time.

I remember that. We all are so snow deprived that I’m not giving up on this one just yet. There’s too much time. I might feel differently Thursday morning, but for now I’m going to stick with the belief that this storm will make a lot of us very happy.

[WXNewton]

The overall footprint of accumulations on the 6z NAM, ICON, and Canadian are really close. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[LithiaWx]

WSW for North Ga

 

4-6 mtns

 

2-4 I-20 corridor

[StantonParkHoya]

6z GFS just a total dumpster fire