StantonParkHoya Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Nearing end of their useful range but 0z GEFS notably drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 hour ago, GaWx said: Fellow wx weenies, I need some advice. If you were in Savannah with no chance for wintry precip, would you drive 4-5 hours to N Gwinnett county (NE of ATL) on Thu if family or friends offered you a room to stay in for the weekend and enjoy it with them? It is a few miles S of the Mall of GA. This could easily be ATL’s biggest winter storm in 11 years and years til the next major one. I haven’t seen a flake or pellet in 7 years! But I’m worried ATL is going to get mainly ZR. While ice looks pretty and would be exciting to see, heavy ZR could mean long outages/no TV/cold inside and no snow or sleet to look at and walk in. So, it could get miserable. If I knew it were going to be nearly all snow and sleet, it would be an easy decision. Weenies, what would you do? I think you need to wait til Thu AM to know. The 18Z Euro looked better for ATL, cannot put much stock in the GFS, NAM is out of range. I think once the NAM/RGEM are inside 48 we'd have a better idea. The flatter this is the more likely that area sees mainly snow but at same time they'd have hard time getting over 3-4 inches at best. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Stay the course, fellow nerds. First thing worth tracking in like three years. Let it come.. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 As expected, the 0z GEFS is a big step down from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Ughhh... The 0z UK is very dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 UK is a disaster for snow lovers east of the Apps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Maybe everyone should just go to bed and show those models who’s boss. Been coming here for years. I have learned a lot and I’m grateful, but the constant doom at the flux is difficult. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: UK is a disaster for snow lovers east of the Apps. Charlotte area still scores there But can't remember the last time relied on a model like the UK to get a snowstorm right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 I think the 12Z Euro/EPS really faked everyone out as it joined the RGEM/UKMET that cycle and was north. 18Z went right back south, that 00Z UKMET snow map looks very close to the 18Z Euro. Still this is far enough out more surprises might happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 hour ago, GaWx said: Fellow wx weenies, I need some advice. If you were in Savannah with no chance for wintry precip, would you drive 4-5 hours to N Gwinnett county (NE of ATL) on Thu if family or friends offered you a room to stay in for the weekend and enjoy it with them? It is a few miles S of the Mall of GA. This could easily be ATL’s biggest winter storm in 11 years and years til the next major one. I haven’t seen a flake or pellet in 7 years! But I’m worried ATL is going to get mainly ZR. While ice looks pretty and would be exciting to see, heavy ZR could mean long outages/no TV/cold inside and no snow or sleet to look at and walk in. So, it could get miserable. If I knew it were going to be nearly all snow and sleet, it would be an easy decision. Weenies, what would you do? Well, you've wondered what 73 was like, lol. This won't be 3 or 4 inches, but if it goes bad it will be pretty bad, so you could get a flavor of it. And if it's all snow and sleet, you'd get to sled on the roads. And take walks in a wonder land. All those ballasts exploding and limbs and trees falling all night.... and the poles down everywhere with live wires... is scary as can be, so it's like a forced horror fun amusement park from hell with out the rabid clowns. People pay to get scared, and you will be scared 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, Regan said: Maybe everyone should just go to bed and show those models who’s boss. Been coming here for years. I have learned a lot and I’m grateful, but the constant doom at the flux is difficult. My friend..this is a tale as old as time. i'll give you some advice. Always remember that storms will always trend towards a drier, warmer, or northern solution. Those are the default settings. Us folks in the south need to go 3 for 3. Always an uphill battle. Lower your expectations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said: My friend..this is a tale as old as time. i'll give you some advice. Always remember that storms will always trend towards a drier, warmer, or northern solution. Those are the default settings. Us folks in the south need to go 3 for 3. Always an uphill battle. Lower your expectations. I have zero expectations for the weather here. I know how it goes here in central NC. I was born and raised here. I was just saying the freak outs cloud the info. I was making light of it by saying everyone should go to bed. Let it ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Dr No wins again. Never bet against the Euro again IMO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 We need more of a NNE movement of the precipitation not ENE. That's one reason it's so dry over NC. Plus the trough is too progressive and trending more positive last few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 10 hours ago, QC_Halo said: How long has it been since the last major board meltdown? Has to have been years at this point. ☝ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Canadian is finally coming in and it also has less precipitation across nc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Euro is pretty steady but slightly less than 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 30 minutes ago, wncsnow said: We need more of a NNE movement of the precipitation not ENE. That's one reason it's so dry over NC. Plus the trough is too progressive and trending more positive last few runs time to put a fork in this one. There are signs of an early february torch to be excited about 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 6 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said: time to put a fork in this one. There are signs of an early february torch to be excited about I hate that you’re probably right. I actually felt good about this one too! At this point I would be happy for a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 14 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said: time to put a fork in this one. There are signs of an early february torch to be excited about At least my electric bill will be lower. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Corollary for a watched pot never boils is a watched model never pleases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Lilj4425 I believe that the floor is yours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Jan 2022 was completely lost on the models at this point and started showing up again 36 hours before go time. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Jan 2022 was completely lost on the models at this point and started showing up again 36 hours before go time.It also over performed.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 32 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Jan 2022 was completely lost on the models at this point and started showing up again 36 hours before go time. I remember that. We all are so snow deprived that I’m not giving up on this one just yet. There’s too much time. I might feel differently Thursday morning, but for now I’m going to stick with the belief that this storm will make a lot of us very happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 The overall footprint of accumulations on the 6z NAM, ICON, and Canadian are really close. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 WSW for North Ga 4-6 mtns 2-4 I-20 corridor 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 6z GFS just a total dumpster fire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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