January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

Will Mike Maze be impressed is the big question right now?


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[Brick Tamland]

[StantonParkHoya]

Why do QPF maps on Pivotal always look so weak no matter the returns?

[Brick Tamland]

Looked like the GFS had a little break in precip and then more snow. 

[Brick Tamland]

Mixing in NC at 78 and 81.

[StantonParkHoya]

Weak garbage and warm

[BornAgain13]

I hate to say it but this thing is meeting up with that dry air over head. That's what the EURO has been showing for a while now... Still a decent storm for some but you can see when it's so amped and then it runs into a brick drywall in the Carolinas and VA

[wncsnow]

Another step down compared to previous run

[StantonParkHoya]

This one is cooked I fear 

[Brick Tamland]

Of course it keeps getting less and less snow as we get closer. It's probably going to be all ice by the time it gets here. Why is it so hard to get snow here now?

[BornAgain13]

The trough continues to trend more positive and the dry air is shearing out the moisture. It still has enough for light amounts but if this keeps trending like it's going, it's gonna be a dud unfortunately 

[snowinnc]

35 minutes ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

Mike Maze going out on a limb and predicting 0.7” for Raleigh. I’m 4 miles north of RDU and if I don’t get at least 1.5”, I’ll be disappointed.


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We’re about six miles NW of RDU. We took Leesville Rd. on the way home from Angus Barn tonight! Crossing my fingers that we finally get some snow!

[Buddy1987]

Yea I’m about to track from afar. Gfs given me 6” or more 3 consecutive runs but it’s literally the only one doing so. Unless Euro gets onboard kinda hard to get overly invested in 1-2” possibly. 

[Brick Tamland]

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

The trough continues to trend more positive and the dry air is shearing out the moisture. It still has enough for light amounts but if this keeps trending like it's going, it's gonna be a dud unfortunately 

If we don't get a decent snow storm this winter I think I am done with following the models.

[Regan]

Here comes the PM panic attack. Come on guys. Please don’t go near the cliff. 

[BornAgain13]

2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Yea I’m about to track from afar. Gfs given me 6” or more 3 consecutive runs but it’s literally the only one doing so. Unless Euro gets onboard kinda hard to get overly invested in 1-2” possibly. 

The way things look man, I would side with the lower end of things... The Euro has been very stubborn and consistent... Just to much dry air and to much positive tilt as well. 

[BornAgain13]

I guess the RGEM gave up and didn't want to run tonight.

[jburns]

23 minutes ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

You don’t want to be without power so I would not risk it. If you were guaranteed snow without ZR, that may be different. Good luck either way.
 

One man’s risk is another man’s adventure.  I’d go.

[snowmaker13]

9 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

This one is cooked I fear 

At least we get the disappointment over with before and not during it. 

[lilj4425]

4 minutes ago, Regan said:

Here comes the PM panic attack. Come on guys. Please don’t go near the cliff. 

Too late.  It’s gonna be 70 and sunny at this rate. 

[WNC_Fort]

Tim Buckley and other Mets are mentioning the lack of precip. Gonna be an issue in NC…

[HKY_WX]

Euro tends to be a bit weak on qpf from my experience. This certainly isn't a major system but the vort should be strong enough to spit out. 25 to .5 qpf in nc.

[Buddy1987]

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

The way things look man, I would side with the lower end of things... The Euro has been very stubborn and consistent... Just to much dry air and to much positive tilt as well. 

About the only thing I’m hanging my hat on is from what I remember in the past and that is GFS used to school Euro in northern stream systems. About the only thing you can hope for. Other portion of the hope side of things is I actually thought the GFS improved some on the orientation of the trough axis and was much closer to going neutral. That happens we def have a fighters chance. 

[Regan]

1 minute ago, lilj4425 said:

Too late.  It’s gonna be 70 and sunny at this rate. 

You’d think with this bunch. They were just yay over the icon and boom crying again. 

[lilj4425]

2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Euro tends to be a bit weak on qpf from my experience. This certainly isn't a major system but the vort should be strong enough to spit out. 25 to .5 qpf in nc.

And it will all be wasted on evaporational cooling due to the dry air in place. Seen it time and time again. 

[HKY_WX]

3 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

And it will all be wasted on evaporational cooling due to the dry air in place. Seen it time and time again. 

Qpf is what accumulates. Evap cooling is accounted for.

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, HKY_WX said:

Qpf is after thats accounted for.

Correct.  This forum will be exploding at like 5am Friday over GA/SC that its going to start snowing any minute because the radar will be blossoming everywhere but it likely won't reach the ground for 2-3 hours after.  The models only show precip when its expect to reach the ground

[QC_Halo]

44 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Fellow wx weenies, I need some advice. If you were in Savannah with no chance for wintry precip, would you drive 4-5 hours to N Gwinnett county (NE of ATL) on Thu if family or friends offered you a room to stay in for the weekend and enjoy it with them? It is a few miles S of the Mall of GA.

 This could easily be ATL’s biggest winter storm in 11 years and years til the next major one. I haven’t seen a flake or pellet in 7 years! But I’m worried ATL is going to get mainly ZR. While ice looks pretty and would be exciting to see, heavy ZR could mean long outages/no TV/cold inside and no snow or sleet to look at and walk in. So, it could get miserable. If I knew it were going to be nearly all snow and sleet, it would be an easy decision.

 Weenies, what would you do?

No

[lilj4425]

6 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Qpf is what accumulates. Evap cooling is accounted for.

Ahhh…didn’t realize that. Thanks. 

[QC_Halo]

23 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Of course it keeps getting less and less snow as we get closer. It's probably going to be all ice by the time it gets here. Why is it so hard to get snow here now?

Because the skies haven’t healed from 2018….duh