January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor

[Brick Tamland]

[gwlee7]

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Dallas was getting 8"+ now models have them under 4 and they are less than 2 days out. Shows how quickly it can change...

I  used to hang with all of you when I lived in Eastern NC.   I now live just North of Dallas.  The models keep bouncing around.  I will report back what happens here since some think that what happens here helps predict what happens later for you.   

[Brick Tamland]

[Buddy1987]

7 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I dont like it from the phase happy NAM. Might be lower precip this run 

Odd part is moisture is a good bit north of 18z. Confluence in the northeast also not as great this go around. The back end energy seems to want to affect the storm this go around. A lot of different moving parts for sure here.

One thing I see and notice now is the energy up on the Dakota/Canada border seems to be taller and a tad more displaced westward, which I guess in theory would affect the moisture transport, along with a tick less confluence up north. 

[snowmaker13]

So are we talking more or less phasing on the NAM so far? I saw the Euro AI moved the precip slightly south. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Tim Buckley

https://x.com/TimBuckleyWX/status/1876817819913912685

[wncsnow]

NAM looks warmer 

[snowmaker13]

NWS has me getting Rain in Asheville for a part of it now  

[Brick Tamland]

[Buddy1987]

@wncsnowthats def what it is man. Trough axis orientation at 60 is def westward and confluence isn’t as strong resulting in better waa to the north. You can see it built up more over western KY and MO

[wncsnow]

I don't like all the northern stream interaction pressing down on the system. 

[StantonParkHoya]

It’s LR NAM folks. Blind dog.

[Brick Tamland]

[wncsnow]

This looks more like the Euro with the heavy precip in the OH valley 

[Brick Tamland]

Looks good at 75.

[wncsnow]

Mixing 

[buckeyefan1]

 

[wncsnow]

[Brick Tamland]

 Not liking how the totals decreased. Nothing for Raleigh and points south.

[Buddy1987]

What an unlikely solution to kickstart 0z runs. Just a ton of different things happening upstairs. I’m not even sure there’s a model that comes close to portraying 0z nam. 

[wake4est]

Just now, Brick Tamland said:

 Not liking how the totals decreased. Nothing for Raleigh and points south.

Oh there’s something. Almost a half inch of zr.

[BornAgain13]

Definitely still a decent run of the NAM. However, that Graf Model does not look good. It looks very very light like the EURO. Unfortunately the euro could be on to something. It has stuck to it's guns. 

[BooneWX]

Just now, wncsnow said:

Mixing 

Looking at the sounding, I think it’s a product of lighter rates. Not enough moisture at that point in the snow growth zone. Says snow/sleet but the sounding over me is freezing drizzle. Personally, I love that track. Someone is going to get a death band from this thing. It’s shown up in several models. Hard to say where it settles, but that stretch from Hendersonville to Shelby is looking good.

[BooneWX]

GRAF is absolute nightmare fuel. Doesn’t even have a shield of precip - just loosely organized snow showers.

[StantonParkHoya]

15 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Not sure I understand how you can have 9 hours of moderate snow returns over wake county and have that outcome

[Buddy1987]

FV3 has a much better precip shield at the end of its run comparing it to 0z NAM. 

[wake4est]

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Not sure I understand how you can have 9 hours of moderate snow returns over wake county and have that outcome

 

[Buddy1987]

Confluence good bit stronger on Icon at 30. Good bit different as well evolution wise comparing it to the Nam thus far. 

[SnowDawg]

Nam was really juicy honestly, and generally upped QPF across the south east up to the same hour as the 18z run ended. It was definitely warmer though, thus all the ice. 

[StantonParkHoya]

6 minutes ago, wake4est said:

 

Doesn’t answer why there’s not more snow accumulation before transition