January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor

[eyewall]

This is going to be a roller coaster ride all the way until the storm arrives.

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

This is going to be a roller coaster ride all the way until the storm arrives.

These are the storms we were raised on. Time to book a hotel in roxboro 

[StantonParkHoya]

Raleigh folks need that front end thump to hit hit

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Raleigh folks need that front end thump to hit hit

It’s highly likely that front end IS our storm in the snowfall department 

[StantonParkHoya]

6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It’s highly likely that front end IS our storm in the snowfall department 

GFS has the snow starting at like 3pm Friday afternoon…

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[BornAgain13]

18z ICON and GFS brought the goods ... Hopefully 0z Gets even better across the board for everyone!

[Brick Tamland]

GFS ensemble mean is better than the op.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

4 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

GFS ensemble mean is better than the op.

Boom!

[snowinnc]

40 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

GFS is 1-2” snow then ice for RDU. Stays below freezing for duration

Has there ever not been such a huge gradient in RDU? We moved to North Raleigh very close to the Durham County line about 19 years ago and I have always been amazed at the difference in show totals in my backyard vs. friends who live in Knightdale/Fuquay. It’s insane how sharp and stressful that gradient is!

[CentralNC]

1 minute ago, snowinnc said:

Has there ever not been such a huge gradient in RDU? We moved to North Raleigh very close to the Durham County line about 19 years ago and I have always been amazed at the difference in show totals in my backyard vs. friends who live in Knightdale/Fuquay. It’s insane how sharp and stressful that gradient is!

Always been that way except maybe 2000 storm

[StantonParkHoya]

4 minutes ago, snowinnc said:

Has there ever not been such a huge gradient in RDU? We moved to North Raleigh very close to the Durham County line about 19 years ago and I have always been amazed at the difference in show totals in my backyard vs. friends who live in Knightdale/Fuquay. It’s insane how sharp and stressful that gradient is!

Well Wake is like 40 miles across so it’s really like two counties

[CaryWx]

3 minutes ago, snowinnc said:

Has there ever not been such a huge gradient in RDU? We moved to North Raleigh very close to the Durham County line about 19 years ago and I have always been amazed at the difference in show totals in my backyard vs. friends who live in Knightdale/Fuquay. It’s insane how sharp and stressful that gradient is!

At least >40yrs that I know of.  The Raleigh News and Observer did an article on it around 1980 that I recall.

[KChuck]

Just now, CaryWx said:

At least >40yrs that I know of.  The Raleigh News and Observer did an article on it around 1980 that I recall.

Seems I recall that there has mostly always been a sharp gradient in the I85 storms in North Carolina, not specific to Raleigh only. 

[HKY_WX]

We bought a house about 5 miles west of Franklinton 6 months ago. Big difference at my new spot vs places like Fuquay or Clayton.

[sarcean]

Less than 3 days out and precip types and amounts are still wildly up in the air 

Just glad Charlotte will break it's streak of over 1000 days of snow 

[StantonParkHoya]

Try driving from like downtown Raleigh to Oxford. It’s like visiting Canada.

[NEGa]

2 hours ago, oconeexman said:

Id like to think imby there won't be a lot of mixing issues during the last half but todays trends have me thinking it def will. Still time to reverse the trend and we got happy hour Nam this afternoon 

Same - however based on past history I wouldn’t be surprised - and am sort of expecting, some mixing in ne ga. Looking like a pretty classic I85 and it’s rare not to mix around here. Hopefully can stay mostly snow for all of us. Sometimes the mix is after a decent amount of snow fortunately. I am just glad we finally appear to be heading for a SE winter snow. It’s been 2 years ugh

[btownheel]

18Z Icon snow: heaviest is further north than 12Z

Now THAT is an I-85 special right there.


.

[oconeexman]

Just now, NEGa said:

Same - however based on past history I wouldn’t be surprised - and am sort of expecting, some mixing in ne ga. Looking like a pretty classic I85 and it’s rare not to mix around here. Hopefully can stay mostly snow for all of us. Sometimes the mix is after a decent amount of snow fortunately. I am just glad we finally appear to be heading for a SE winter snow. It’s been 2 years ugh

Yea if we can get 3-4" of snow for me to watch fall, it can slett all it wants after. I'd be as happy as a pig in shiii!

[HKY_WX]

3 minutes ago, btownheel said:

Now THAT is an I-85 special right there.


.

I'm gonna hug that model

[StantonParkHoya]

The high temps on Saturday are a little suspect, particularly if sheets of concrete are on the ground. No way we hit 40.

[NorthHillsWx]

17 minutes ago, snowinnc said:

Has there ever not been such a huge gradient in RDU? We moved to North Raleigh very close to the Durham County line about 19 years ago and I have always been amazed at the difference in show totals in my backyard vs. friends who live in Knightdale/Fuquay. It’s insane how sharp and stressful that gradient is!

Dec 2018 was wild. NW wake had 10” while southern Wake had a coating. 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

The high temps on Saturday are a little suspect, particularly if sheets of concrete are on the ground. No way we hit 40.

Agreed. They usually undercut guidance with snow cover though. Probably a big melt though but at this point i just hope there’s something to worry about melting 

[buckeyefan1]

How are ya'll holding up today? Everyone take their meds? Good and hydrated? I hope so because there are still about 45 more runs to go before the radar hallucinations begin  

[CaryWx]

Just now, buckeyefan1 said:

How are ya'll holding up today? Everyone take their meds? Good and hydrated? I hope so because there are still about 45 more runs to go before the radar hallucinations begin  

"...radar hallucinations"?

You mean the pink elephant echoes

[snowinnc]

11 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Try driving from like downtown Raleigh to Oxford. It’s like visiting Canada.

No kidding! We live about 30 minutes from Oxford. If I wasn’t knee deep in taking down Christmas decorations the other day, I would have driven up there and just sat at the Hardee’s and stared out the window looking like an idiot. I am so desperate for some snow, like everyone is!

[BornAgain13]

18z CMC

https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[PackGrad05]

Wake is a big county geographically but also situated in a spot meteorologically that makes it the transition. It is the right distance from the coast with these systems


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[HWY316wx]

Everyone keeps talking snow and I am pumped about it, but what I am not pumped about is the transition from snow to sleet to ZR.   I hope this is more sleet than ZR.