January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor

[Brick Tamland]

[NorthHillsWx]

I’m not going as far as to say we’ve been NAM’d (because it’s honestly believable given other modeling) but that’s a beautiful run for this entire forum just about

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Looks like mainly ZR downtown ATL on the 18Z NAM with ~1” of snow pretty similar to 12Z CMC. Also, note that all of the snow is well north of the 552 thickness line, which makes sense unlike the 12Z GFS’s snow going to ~555.

[SnowDawg]

NAM a little more amped therefor warmer aloft that run, but stronger CAD and much colder at the surface.

[wncsnow]

[BooneWX]

While the surface depiction was excellent, we need to hope the nam is done trending so amped. There’s a fine line and we’re starting to cross it in the mid levels. Much of that snow had sleet/frz rain soundings, even in the mountains. 

[wncsnow]

Just now, BooneWX said:

While the surface depiction was excellent, we need to hope the nam is done trending so amped. There’s a fine line and we’re starting to cross it in the mid levels. Much of that snow had sleet/frz rain soundings, even in the mountains. 

Yep it's close but it's also the HR 84 NAM so it should be looked on a broader scale

[KChuck]

11 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Hmmm I have also noticed a lot of odd behavior by the animals on this board.  
 

BTW.  GSP AFD is a good one.  
 

Again, so true! 

[Cheeznado]

Not liking the the new NAM very much. Almost an inch of ZR- yuck. Hope it is bit too warm and maybe we will get more sleet because of evap cooling.

[BooneWX]

Just now, wncsnow said:

Yep it's close but it's also the HR 84 NAM so it should be looked on a broader scale

Broader scale is it’s amped way too early in the run where it has better accuracy. 

[wncsnow]

Just now, BooneWX said:

Broader scale is it’s amped way too early in the run where it has better accuracy. 

The 00Z run will be interesting. 

[olafminesaw]

I wouldn't think too much about the (regular) NAM. It has an amped bias and a cold bias and overall isn't very good. The hires model is great for thermals and identifying banding features but not as useful for track, QPF etc.

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Not liking the the new NAM very much. Almost an inch of ZR- yuck. Hope it is bit too warm and maybe we will get more sleet because of evap cooling.

That may be possible.  The wedge is lousy but the air mass in place and nearby is good.  I still think ATL's snow event comes next week.  Setup and position of high to me is way better.

[Upstate Tiger]

1 minute ago, Cheeznado said:

Not liking the the new NAM very much. Almost an inch of ZR- yuck. Hope it is bit too warm and maybe we will get more sleet because of evap cooling.

Once we get inside 24 hours you can just about go to the bank with the thermals on the NAM.  I’m holding my breath to that late Thursday night NAM run. No doubt we have a storm but how much of what is still in question. 

[Cheeznado]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

That may be possible.  The wedge is lousy but the air mass in place and nearby is good.  I still think ATL's snow event comes next week.  Setup and position of high to me is way better.

Looked at a NAM sounding near me, not much of a warm nose showing up really so the algorithm may be too icy.

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, Cheeznado said:

Looked at a NAM sounding near me, not much of a warm nose showing up really so the algorithm may be too icy.

Usually that layer though from like 680-850 which shows as -1C with strong SW flow verifies way milder in the end.  Often 1-2C milder

[WinstonSalemArlington]

January Joy

[Cheeznado]

7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Usually that layer though from like 680-850 which shows as -1C with strong SW flow verifies way milder in the end.  Often 1-2C milder

You may be right but still hoping for at least 2" of snow before the changeover.

[franklin NCwx]

Lines up well with the euro AI

[Brick Tamland]

ICON at 66.

 

[Brick Tamland]

ICON looks very NAM like.

[Brick Tamland]

[Brick Tamland]

ICON might keep me as all snow.

[CentralNC]

2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

ICON might keep me as all snow.

It's been pretty steady but I have a feeling it's a little too gracious on the snow side.  I hope it's right though!

[GaWx]

18Z Icon snow: heaviest is further north than 12Z

[BornAgain13]

8" here in mby, taking the 18z ICON verbatim. I can wish lol

[sarcean]

6 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

what a mess for the Charlotte area but hopefully it keeps (mostly) all snow

[Brick Tamland]

ICON has been consistent. Wake gets between 2 and 7 inches. The cutoff seems legit.

[BornAgain13]

I'm guessing this would be a more fluffy snow up this way? Temps look to be upper 20's while snowing. 

[NGTim]

I really want to take something to knock me out till maybe Thursday cause this is like hoping your team makes it through the playoffs to the championship game.  But, seriously, trying to temper things just in case.  On a scale of 1 to 10, what do we need to watch out for (those things like after a bust, we say the xyz got us).  I feel like most of these are zero or on the very low end, except maybe warm nose. 

1 no worry < - - - - > 10 worry
-----------------------------------------
1) Sun Angle (guessing zero)

2) Warm Nose - 6?, 7?

3) Gulf convection robbing moisture (haven't heard anything so I assume none)

4) Went too negative tilt

5) Too positive tilt

6) High was in the wrong position

7) Cold couldn't get past the mountains (cold already locked in place i think)