January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor

[olafminesaw]

Does anyone have the NBM trends for precip over the past few models cycles? My sense is models trended wetter generally through 6z until the 12z models generally took a step back in terms of QPF

[QC_Halo]

How long has it been since the last major board meltdown? Has to have been years at this point. 

[BooneWX]

12z Euro AI: pretty much the exact same thing it’s been showing for a million runs now

[wake4est]

1 minute ago, QC_Halo said:

How long has it been since the last major board meltdown? Has to have been years at this point. 

Pretty sure we've been melting down every day since like 2018.

[QC_Halo]

Just now, wake4est said:

Pretty sure we've been melting down every day since like 2018.

I’m talking about a highly anticipated system, that becomes a bust.

[KChuck]

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

Will be nice to have instant stickage with highs in the mid/upper 30s and lows in the teens leading up to the storm

I was surprised in Kville how quick the secondary roads got coated. Wasn't thinking about it prior so it took me by a bit by surprise until I thought about it for a bit. 

[KChuck]

1 hour ago, BooneWX said:

EPS: juicer, improved. But, a tick north for those on the edge.

I thought that we all are on the edge.

[Cheeznado]

All except a very few ensemble members, both EPS and GEFS have accumulating snow here in Atlanta, consensus is 2-4".

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, KChuck said:

I thought that we all are on the edge.

Not me. I’m over 100 miles away from the good stuff! I can relax because there’s nothing to worry about since there’s virtually no chance of anything significant nearby. 

[BornAgain13]

Finally catching up on the posts and the model runs.... Been real busy today..... Everything is looking great so far. Love the trends! Still going in the right direction!

[KChuck]

55 minutes ago, oconeexman said:

I'm here Lil turd!

Trying to temper expectations..liking a solid 2-4 then sleet to pound it down!

I was thinking that with the low dew points and cold temperatures that we'd be starting off with fluffy snow at better than 10:1 ratios then watch them collapse as the mixed precip and rain comes in, no? 

[GaWx]

1 minute ago, KChuck said:

I was thinking that with the low dew points and cold temperatures that we'd be starting off with fluffy snow at better than 10:1 ratios then watch them collapse as the mixed precip and rain comes in, no? 

That depends much more on colder 850s than it does on surface dewpoints.

[KChuck]

14 minutes ago, QC_Halo said:

I’m talking about a highly anticipated system, that becomes a bust.

And this is different from what lately??? 

[Subliminal87]

Just curious if someone could help out my anxiety.  
 

I have a flight from Harrisburg pa to Charlotte then to Phoenix. 
 

I feel like I might be ok out of Harrisburg but what about Charlotte on Saturday? I think I’m going to be screwed but trying to stay positive lol. 
 

oooor spend more and fly out Saturday morning out of Philly for a direct flight. 

[NorthHillsWx]

4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Finally catching up on the posts and the model runs.... Been real busy today..... Everything is looking great so far. Love the trends! Still going in the right direction!

You’re in a great spot 

[DeltaPilot]

Im wishcasting about an .5-1 inch of pretty white stuff with some sleet and then little or no Ice. Anything at this point. Looks like down here in Peachtree City we are going to be right on the edge. Been a while here.

[strongwxnc]

I’m talking about a highly anticipated system, that becomes a bust.

I’m so jaded I feel like every system is gonna be a bust. Until somethings fallen and I’ve got radar to prove it it’s all digital eye candy!


.

[Buddy1987]

27 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

12z Euro AI: pretty much the exact same thing it’s been showing for a million runs now

Guys in the MA forum saying it has performed very well. Would be a nice hit if that’s the case for many here. 

[olafminesaw]

[BooneWX]

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

Guys in the MA forum saying it has performed very well. Would be a nice hit if that’s the case for many here. 

It’s outperformed the GFS and standard Euro in testing

[frazdaddy]

32 minutes ago, QC_Halo said:

I’m talking about a highly anticipated system, that becomes a bust.

2017?

[burgertime]

I'm rooting for you guys. I'm a little worried about the lack of really cold air... But it's a good setup especially for WNC and along I-85. Like usual it's gonna be feast or famine probably. if you're in CLT I fear it'll be nailbiter as it looks now. 

[Buddy1987]

15 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

It’s outperformed the GFS and standard Euro in testing

That’s pretty wild! I honestly didnt even know they were releasing it as soon as they have. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Euro was great with the DC-Baltimore Sunday/Monday storm 

[buckeyefan1]

2 minutes ago, burgertime said:

I'm rooting for you guys. I'm a little worried about the lack of really cold air... But it's a good setup especially for WNC and along I-85. Like usual it's gonna be feast or famine probably. if you're in CLT I fear it'll be nailbiter as it looks now. 

Isn’t it always like that? It’s how we roll in the south

[oconeexman]

32 minutes ago, KChuck said:

I was thinking that with the low dew points and cold temperatures that we'd be starting off with fluffy snow at better than 10:1 ratios then watch them collapse as the mixed precip and rain comes in, no? 

Id like to think imby there won't be a lot of mixing issues during the last half but todays trends have me thinking it def will. Still time to reverse the trend and we got happy hour Nam this afternoon 

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Euro was great with the DC-Baltimore Sunday/Monday storm 

Euro or Euro AI? I thought the regular Euro was a tad too far south originally 

[StantonParkHoya]

Don’t have snow maps for Euro Ai but SLP track about 20 miles off Morehead City, 546 line in Johnston Co. Probably a snow to sleet to snow set up for RDU.

[GunBlade]

2 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Isn’t it always like that? It’s how we roll in the south

A friend of mine used to live on the 50th floor of the Vue in downtown Charlotte. He went out on his balcony one morning and it was snowing. When he went downstairs to walk to work it was raining....That is what we are working with nearly every storm in this area

[BooneWX]

And I know this won’t make many feel better but Sunday’s storm in the MA jumped north at this lead time, only to settle further south.