January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor

[neatlburbwthrguy]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Euro for ATL about what I've been expecting.  SN briefly, then SNPL, then PL, then FZRA.  The wedge may indeed break and they get to 34 but by then I think the event has ended anyway

how far north of the city do you think it would stay primarily snow for at least half the event before switching over to ip/fzra? 

[BooneWX]

For my fellow NC folks, I’ve got a funny feeling that the Euro will catch on and deliver a more impactful event either at 18 or 0Z. Watch the QPF trend over the past few runs. It’s roughly the same for NC but much heavier amounts keep creeping closer from the southwest. 

[CentralNC]

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, neatlburbwthrguy said:

how far north of the city do you think it would stay primarily snow for at least half the event before switching over to ip/fzra? 

30-40 miles probably.  Assuming we see no north shift I'd say places 15-20 miles north of the north side of 285 would be mostly snow

[GaWx]

12Z Euro:

ZR:

 

IP:

 

qpf:

[cbmclean]

Model trends are positive on balance but this has some warning signs anyone hoping for significant impact in NC east of the mountains.  The stagnant cold, lack of a high, suspiciously high thicknesses etc.  I will forever be scarred by Jan 2017... 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Arctic dew points 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[mclean02]

1 hour ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Ya’ll know not to take the ukie’s thermal profile verbatim  

I believe we have now entered the weenie panic timeline before the radar hallucinations begin

That and seeing virga on the  radar saying the forecast is a bus lol! In the first 1 hour of the event.

[NorthHillsWx]

5 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

That is an incredible ensemble look at this range.

[olafminesaw]

Will be nice to have instant stickage with highs in the mid/upper 30s and lows in the teens leading up to the storm

[BooneWX]

EPS: juicer, improved. But, a tick north for those on the edge.

[strongwxnc]

Just now, olafminesaw said:

Will be nice to have instant stickage with highs in the mid/upper 30s and lows in the teens leading up to the storm

Yup. Where you waste nothing from the start  

[NorthHillsWx]

A good thing going for us is ensembles have largely been better than op runs from each of the model suites. To me that says there is better potential for this to trend positively for snow lovers than the opposite. Call it a gut feeling, whatever you want, but I think 18z and 0z might improve across the board for snowfall

[PackGrad05]

EPS: juicer, improved. But, a tick north for those on the edge.

Southern wake will be screwed by the cutoff for sure.


.

[lilj4425]

I miss @burrel2 and @oconeexman.  I feel so alone now in Upstate SC. 

[Brick Tamland]

EPS totals look about the same as the last run.

[Derived42]

4 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

I miss @burrel2 and @oconeexman.  I feel so alone now in Upstate SC. 

I'm in Fort Mill... kinda Upstate?

[UpStateCAD]

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

EPS totals look about the same as the last run.

looks a little sparser in the Upstate.   Seems to be an increasing minimum here.   Have not looked at the projected approach of the system into our area but I guess it could be our old friend Mr Downslope.

[GoAPPS]

GFS total snowfall trend from Saturday's 18z run to today's 12z run.

[oconeexman]

14 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

I miss @burrel2 and @oconeexman.  I feel so alone now in Upstate SC. 

I'm here Lil turd!

Trying to temper expectations..liking a solid 2-4 then sleet to pound it down!

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Updated, upgraded

[snowmaker13]

Euro members

[PackGrad05]

Looks like a classic I-85 storm to me.


.

[Brick Tamland]

9 minutes ago, GoAPPS said:

GFS total snowfall trend from Saturday's 18z run to today's 12z run.

Like a roller coaster ride.

[GaWx]

12Z models’ snow/other wintry/qpf for downtown Atlanta: huge range:

GFS: 5.5”; little IP/ZR; qpf 0.95”

UK 5”; little IP/ZR and some rain lol; qpf 0.85”

Icon 3.5”; qpf 0.95”

Euro 2”; moderate IP/ZR; qpf 0.58”

CMC 0.2”; mainly ZR and IP; qpf 0.70”

AVG: 3.2”; qpf 0.81”

 So, anywhere from heavy snow, generous qpf, and little IP and ZR of GFS/UK to CMC’s almost all ZR/IP and more moderate qpf.

 I wouldn't want to be an Atlanta forecaster right now!

 Anyone have a good feel for ATL yet?

 

[lilj4425]

11 minutes ago, oconeexman said:

I'm here Lil turd!

Trying to temper expectations..liking a solid 2-4 then sleet to pound it down!

Wow. It worked. I have the power.  

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z models’ snow/other wintry/qpf for downtown Atlanta: huge range:

GFS: 5.5”; little IP/ZR; qpf 0.95”

UK 5”; little IP/ZR and some rain lol; qpf 0.85”

Icon 3.5”; qpf 0.95”

Euro 2”; moderate IP/ZR; qpf 0.58”

CMC 0.2”; mainly ZR and IP; qpf 0.70”

AVG: 3.2”; qpf 0.81”

 So, anywhere from heavy snow, generous qpf, and little IP and ZR of GFS/UK to CMC’s almost all ZR/IP and more moderate qpf.

 I wouldn't want to be an Atlanta forecaster right now!

 Anyone have a good feel for ATL yet?

 

I'd go mostly pellets ending as light FZRA in ATL with some snow at the start.  I don't think due to the pattern over the Atlantic this is going to climb much more north.  The one thing I would watch for is less shearing out of the system as it comes east.  I do think the QPF values on the Euro for example are likely too low

[Brick Tamland]

6 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Wow. It worked. I have the power.  

[Brick Tamland]

CMC ensemble mean is looking great.