GaWx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 4:41 PM, wncsnow said: Well the good mojo may have stopped. The UK is weaker and warmer. Expand This UKMET map, like CMC, makes much more sense in relation to 1000/500 mb thickness guidelines with it having all the snow with thicknesses lower than 548 dm. But then it has rain in NC up to 540 line, which doesn’t jibe. Aside: Note that UK has 547 line much further south than GFS/CMC. Thus it makes sense that ATL has heavy snow on the UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SunAndRainbowsNC Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Models are looking much better for most of NC. Few more runs and we may start to see a foot plus in the Piedmont and Coastal Plains. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottk Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 As someone who lives in NE SC, it’s great to see that I-95 is being forecasted to retain its magical snow-melting abilities smh 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 I think overall the better models are probably picking up more on the snowpack to the north in the Mid-Atlantic and yeah the Ukie is not great on thermals. Any of these tracks from this morning should break the RDU snowless streak. Honestly for photography purposes snow then ZR can be good if the trees get nice and glassy. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 5:03 PM, eyewall said: I think overall the better models are probably picking up more on the snowpack to the north in the Mid-Atlantic and yeah the Ukie is not great on thermals. Any of these tracks from this morning should break the RDU snowless streak. Honestly for photography purposes snow then ZR can be good if the trees get nice and glassy. Expand Every 12z model so far has been a warning level event for RDU… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 5:05 PM, NorthHillsWx said: Every 12z model so far has been a warning level event for RDU… Expand That is true so no complaints here. It is getting ever closer to call map time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 As we look at precip type over the next few days, just need to keep in mind the sleet line will come much further north than modeled and the flip from sleet to ZR will be slower than expected. At least that's how these dynamic storms normally play out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Historically I’ve used the Ukie for predominantly fodder or entertainment. But I could say the same for the Icon, and I’m willing to hang my hat on that at the moment 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 5:01 PM, scottk said: As someone who lives in NE SC, it’s great to see that I-95 is being forecasted to retain its magical snow-melting abilities smh Expand Tough spot to be for winter weather, even in this forum. So that’s saying something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 4:20 PM, GaWx said: Is anyone else bothered by this thickness/precip type 12Z GFS map? Typically in the SE the snow line is near 546-7. But this shows snow with thicknesses well over 552! How can this be? This is so odd! Can anyone explain this? I’d be highly suspicious of precip types on this. Expand You must immediately desist with your questioning of the sleet due to Tony and me ! This is science, after all. (sarc) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 5:07 PM, NorthHillsWx said: Historically I’ve used the Ukie for predominantly fodder or entertainment. But I could say the same for the Icon, and I’m willing to hang my hat on that at the moment Expand It verifies usually just behind the Euro but thats 500 heights. It can show funny things for precip type/QPF so usually you want to use it just for track 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 5:15 PM, olafminesaw said: Expand I've been thinking the models are overdoing the snow with that 540 so far north. Yes, it will be cold before the storm, but for how long before it warms up with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Nowadays everyone wants to know whet GRAF is showing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 5:28 PM, WinstonSalemArlington said: Nowadays everyone wants to know whet GRAF is showing Expand For what it’s worth, it’s the only model than nailed Sunday in northern NC! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flotownsc Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 5:01 PM, scottk said: As someone who lives in NE SC, it’s great to see that I-95 is being forecasted to retain its magical snow-melting abilities smhBro it’s so frustrating, being that I’m from Florence, I know all to well the pit in your stomach when everyone else is getting winter weather. However if the low tracks far enough offshore sometimes the Pee Dee can be the sweet spot. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Euro sort of sticking to its guns on a weaker more strung out wave. Slightly warmer this run too. Widespread 2-4” in NC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Euro sticking with it 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 5:37 PM, BooneWX said: Euro sort of sticking to its guns on a weaker more strung out wave. Slightly warmer this run too. Widespread 2-4” in NC. Expand Ugh.. was really hoping euro was going to come around. Not good to see that. For what it’s worth, euro actually came around to the gfs last storm and compromised. Hopefully we can get that to happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 5:10 PM, Shack said: You must immediately desist with your questioning of the sleet due to Tony and me ! This is science, after all. (sarc) Expand I’m questioning more the snow line on the 12Z GFS. Snow in some places with thicknesses as high as 555 mb, a low tracking near Cordele, GA, and 5-6” of snow in Atlanta don’t usually all go together. I’d say that on the GFS either the thicknesses are too high (and will end up being lower like that of UK/Icon), the low track is too far north, and/or the heavy snow line is too far south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Euro for ATL about what I've been expecting. SN briefly, then SNPL, then PL, then FZRA. The wedge may indeed break and they get to 34 but by then I think the event has ended anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 The rates are pretty low across most of NC. We need heavier banding to setup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Euro at 90 is mostly snow for NC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 So far at 12Z: Icon: Improved GFS: Improved GEFS: Improved Canadian: Same Ukie: Worse Euro: Roughly the Same EPS: TBD Euro AI: TBD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 The Euro did shift the low track west near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Euro changes to ice at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottk Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 5:10 PM, NorthHillsWx said: Tough spot to be for winter weather, even in this forum. So that’s saying something Expand Haha so true, especially when you’re literally like 5 minutes from 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Guess it's better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 5:43 PM, BooneWX said: So far at 12Z: Icon: Improved GFS: Improved GEFS: Improved Canadian: Same Ukie: Worse Euro: Roughly the Same EPS: TBD Euro AI: TBD Expand I wonder if what we are seeing is more consolidation in the expected low track. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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