January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor

[Met1985]

12z gfs snowfall.

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[NorthHillsWx]

HMMM… GFS trending to all other models. Let’s freaking go

[StantonParkHoya]

Still not good for RDU but trending better I suppose

[BooneWX]

Folded like a dirty dishrag 

[Brick Tamland]

Looks like the GFS still has more ice than the ICON and NAM.

[eyewall]

Still room for improvement with the GFS:

[Brick Tamland]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

HMMM… GFS trending to all other models. Let’s freaking go

Yeah, I guess that's the positive thing with that run.

[BooneWX]

What’s most encouraging about 12z so far is that both pieces of energy are on land + we’re in the range where OPs should start to be more useful than ensembles and they’re all trending wintry.

[NorthHillsWx]

EDIT: it’s still inland. Just colder. Baby steps

[Buddy1987]

@BornAgain13 12Z GFS NUKE! @Met1985 @wncsnow also great for you all!

[snowmaker13]

[HKY_WX]

7 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

12z gfs

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If you look where that SLP track is sitting (that's honestly all you need to pay attention to at this point). If it's in interior SC then sleet/freezing rain is a given. That's pretty far northwest and likely over done a bit if you look at the ensembles and euro. It's a tick east towards the other models which is good news if you like snow. 

[strongwxnc]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

EDIT: it’s still inland. Just colder. Baby steps

Yes. Taking like a shift of 25-75 miles east for cash. 

But getting closer with the alignment across the runs today.

 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

@BornAgain13 12Z GFS NUKE! @Met1985 @wncsnow also great for you all!

Yes that’s what yall wanted to see I’m sure! Honestly keeping me below 32 with some sort of wintry precip is a win after it showed rain for so long here

[Met1985]

1 minute ago, HKY_WX said:

Look where that SLP track is sitting. If it's in interior SC then sleet/freezing rain is a given. That's pretty far west and likely over done if you look at the ensembles and euro. It's a tick east towards the other models which is good news if you like snow. 

Yeah still some tweaks and improvements coming and I do think you are right with how the low tracks up the coast. 

[Thrasher Fan]

N Ga.... that's a Big Dawg run from the GFS

[Met1985]

All in all good trends so far today. Got to feel good about this at this point.

[olafminesaw]

The 12z GFS aligns pretty closely with the 6z GEFS. Let's see if the OP is adjusting to match it's ensembles, or if the trend is south on the ensembles as well

[Buddy1987]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

Yes that’s what yall wanted to see I’m sure! Honestly keeping me below 32 with some sort of wintry precip is a win after it showed rain for so long here

We just went thru one hell of a sleet and ice storm here the other night. While it’s nice to look at it was a pain in the rear end to clean up before Siberia temperatures came in last night  I love winter weather so I can totally understand where you’re coming from.

[Buddy1987]

Canadian earlier on looks more phase happy than the GFS same time. Let’s see where it goes. 

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

We just went thru one hell of a sleet and ice storm here the other night. While it’s nice to look at it was a pain in the rear end to clean up before Siberia temperatures came in last night  I love winter weather so I can totally understand where you’re coming from.

When you haven’t seen winter weather in 3 years, you settle for ice storms 

[HKY_WX]

The euro and gfs, if you just take the general blend, would be a pretty solid hit from southern TN northern MS/AL/GA into NC Mountains/Foothills. Probably 6+ for those avoiding Sleet/ZR.

[Tony Sisk]

1 minute ago, HKY_WX said:

The euro and gfs, if you just take the general blend, would be a pretty solid hit from southern TN northern MS/AL/GA into NC Mountains/Foothills. Probably 6+.

wonder why northern SC is generally not treated the same as northern MS/AL/GA?

[Buddy1987]

Pretty significant differences between Canadian and GFS. Canadian way more neutral tilted to almost negative at 66. 

[WXNewton]

GFS increases totals pretty significantly from 6z 

[GaWx]

Is anyone else bothered by this thickness/precip type 12Z GFS map? Typically in the SE the snow line is near 546-7. But this shows snow with thicknesses well over 552! How can this be? This is so odd! Can anyone explain this? I’d be highly suspicious of precip types on this.

[Buddy1987]

The one thing I’ll say I like A LOT about 12Z thus far is precipitation expansion on the northwest side of the storm minus the NAM’s depiction. Feel like that bodes well as we get closer to the event. 

[franklin NCwx]

Just now, GaWx said:

Is anyone else bothered by this thickness/precip type 12Z GFS map? Typically in the SE the snow line is near 546-7. But this shows snow with thicknesses well over 552! How can this be? This is so odd! Can anyone explain this?

Could be how cold/dry the arctic airmass is that is in place ahead of the system.  Dew points are very cold at onset

[Brick Tamland]

Canadian at 90.

[BooneWX]

Canadian drives the low further north and lays down a big ice storm.