January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor

[BooneWX]

GSP: Confirmed weenies 

 

The most likely locations to see significant wintry
weather will be along/north of the I-85 corridor, but to repeat:
some wintry weather is likely in all areas, and significant accums
can`t be ruled out anywhere.

 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

GSP: Confirmed weenies 

 

The most likely locations to see significant wintry
weather will be along/north of the I-85 corridor, but to repeat:
some wintry weather is likely in all areas, and significant accums
can`t be ruled out anywhere.

 

I love when GSP gets excited. Easy to tell in their wording 

[Tony Sisk]

2 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said:

So far i'm thinking 2-4" for Asheville, NC. Which is winter storm warning criteria. 

I'd say more like 4-6" Asheville.  We should start seeing "first call" snow maps this afternoon for the evening newscasts. 2-4" will be along and north of 85 in the upstate. (My guess) For sure Warning criteria for our neck of the woods.

[HKY_WX]

Took a look last night at the model verification scores (Projected SLP vs actual). The best ones in the 3 to 5 day range have consistently been the GFS ENS and EC ENS. Both of those are lined up pretty good. GFS being a little more westward. I like a track from GOM to south of Destin then tracking over southern GA into the Atlantic. From there a track just offshore. Snow wise this favors the northern deep south and western/northern NC area. Central NC would likely be an initial push of snow then over to ice (or rain depending on how far east you are due to the coastal front). With regard to NC only, that would be probably mostly snow in NC Foothills/Mountains over to Winston Salem and then tailing off as you go ENE in NC. The transition line will be somewhere in between. AKA the usual Bullchit.

[snowmaker13]

1 minute ago, Tony Sisk said:

I'd say more like 4-6" Asheville.  We should start seeing "first call" snow maps this afternoon for the evening newscasts. 2-4" will be along and north of 85 in the upstate. (My guess) For sure Warning criteria for our neck of the woods.

It's been awhile since I seen a snow call map, super excited! 

[StantonParkHoya]

2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Took a look last night at the model verification scores (Projected SLP vs actual). The best ones in the 3 to 5 day range have consistently been the GFS ENS and EC ENS. Both of those are lined up pretty good. GFS being a little more westward. I like a track from GOM to south of Destin then tracking over southern GA into the Atlantic. From there a track just offshore. Snow wise this favors the northern deep south and western/northern NC area. Central NC would likely be an initial push of snow then over to ice (or rain depending on how far east you are due to the coastal front). With regard to NC only, that would be probably mostly snow in NC Foothills/Mountains over to Winston Salem and then tailing off as you go ENE in NC. The transition line will be somewhere in between. AKA the usual Bullchit.

Isn’t the RDU target zone 40 miles off Lookout?

[Met1985]

6 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said:

So far i'm thinking 2-4" for Asheville, NC. Which is winter storm warning criteria. 

That would be pretty conservative in my opinion.  If it starts as snow here then it's more than likely going to stay snow. As Tony mentioned 3-6 with more in around the SW mountains. 

[mclean02]

3 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Took a look last night at the model verification scores (Projected SLP vs actual). The best ones in the 3 to 5 day range have consistently been the GFS ENS and EC ENS. Both of those are lined up pretty good. GFS being a little more westward. I like a track from GOM to south of Destin then tracking over southern GA into the Atlantic. From there a track just offshore. Snow wise this favors the northern deep south and western/northern NC area. Central NC would likely be an initial push of snow then over to ice/rain due to the coastal front. With regard to NC only, that would be probably mostly snow in NC Foothills/Mountains over to Winston Salem and then tailing off as you go E and N. The transition line will be somewhere in between. 

I think that would put north Charlotte on the line 

[snowmaker13]

1 minute ago, Met1985 said:

That would be pretty conservative in my opinion.  If it starts as snow here then it's more than likely going to stay snow. As Tony mentioned 3-6 with more in around the SW mountains. 

Anything over a inch is a win for me  I wanna bust this snow drought. 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Isn’t the RDU target zone 40 miles off Lookout?

Yes. If this tracks 40 miles off CL I’ll think RDU stays some type of frozen/freezing. We get into trouble when LP tracks along the coast

[snowmaker13]

Everyone charge your phones for those postcard photos! 

[HKY_WX]

4 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Isn’t the RDU target zone 40 miles off Lookout?

Yeah. It could be a situation where it does transition back to snow at the tail end. But anything within 20 or 30 miles of the sc coastline usually means mixing in the triangle. That said specifics this far out is prob pointless

[Buddy1987]

12z Nam at 36 thus far has some changes with s/w energy coming out of the western Rockies. Not wanting to dig as hard and phase with our stj. May have implications downstream as we go forward with qpf distribution. Still early but just something I’m noticing. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[Buddy1987]

Out to 51 the surface is corresponding with my fears on less phasing and stream interaction. Much less wintry weather on the northern end of things. See where it goes but I don’t like it so far. 

[Cheeznado]

Big changes in the 12Z NAM, Texas and AR folks will not be happy at all, northern stream much stronger, a lot less precip on the northern edge.

[Brick Tamland]

Looks good at 81 for NC.

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, Cheeznado said:

Big changes in the 12Z NAM, Texas and AR folks will not be happy at all, northern stream much stronger, a lot less precip on the northern edge.

Nam is trying at hour 69 to go more neutral/negative, as energy on the backside has now caught up but still think it’s a step back for sure. Seems like the models are indicating less phasing and less moisture. Hope it corrects. 

[Brick Tamland]

Looks like rain changing to snow for NC.

[Cheeznado]

Actually this run is better here in GA, the less phased/amped trough keeps the ZR lower, snow line further south.

[snowmaker13]

2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Looks good at 81 for NC.

Late phase? 

[Brick Tamland]

[Brick Tamland]

Just now, Cheeznado said:

Actually this run is better here in GA, the less phased/amped trough keeps the ZR lower, snow line further south.

Same for NC. 

[StantonParkHoya]

Would actually be really good for NC if it kept going. Where’s the DGEX???

[Buddy1987]

In any event the Nam is COLD. Has snow in northern Georgia and northern South Carolina. All of NC. Some may view this as a decent run but I’m looking for a bigger dog with more phasing in hopes someone gets blasted, even if it’s not me. The way the last couple winters have been beggers can’t be choosers so a 2-4/3-6 event would make many happy on here.

[buckeyefan1]

1 minute ago, snowmaker13 said:

ICON is rolling 

We know. It doesn’t need to be announced 

[GaWx]

12Z NAM:

ZR

IP

 

Qpf

[Cheeznado]

3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

In any event the Nam is COLD. Has snow in northern Georgia and northern South Carolina. All of NC. Some may view this as a decent run but I’m looking for a bigger dog with more phasing in hopes someone gets blasted, even if it’s not me. The way the last couple winters have been beggers can’t be choosers so a 2-4/3-6 event would make many happy on here.

Sorry, but this would not be just "decent" for us, it is a dream run which would be the most snow here in quite a few years. 

[Buddy1987]

For what it’s worth FV3 looks nothing like the 12z NAM. Much better phasing happening. 

[snowmaker13]

Might be a better phase on the ICON.