January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor

[Buddy1987]

Anyone have 6z Canadian? I heard it was good.

[strongwxnc]

2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Anyone have 6z Canadian? I heard it was good.

https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[Brick Tamland]

6 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Sure wish the GFS would fold soon

GFS was going back and forth yesterday with each run with the totals. Maybe it will start to have some consistency today. But I think seeing the Euro increase the totals is the best news.

[eyewall]

Nice to see things looking better this morning instead of weenies getting the toaster baths ready.

[Brick Tamland]

7 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Anyone have 6z Canadian? I heard it was good.

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

Acceptable. 

[StoneColdWeatherAustin]

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

This look at the end of the NAM looks ripe. Obviously it 84 hour but just gives another snapshot of this system. I'd say things will really come into focus tonight into tomorrow morning...

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

Can that HP placement cause any issues with bringing in warm air from the south?

[Brick Tamland]

9 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Acceptable. 

[RamblinRed]

I'm in Cherokee Co, GA (NW ATL). Just hoping for 3+ here. We got a new sled after the 2018 storm and haven't had a chance to use it yet. Now in a development that has large hills. Son would have a blast if we get legit snow.

My daughter is hoping for snow Friday so she doesn't have to drive downtown. May get her wish.

That NAM run would create a huge mess from about Buckhead south to Macon with ice.

 

[BornAgain13]

It's probably already been mentioned but the 0z AI was still a solid Winter Storm. If this works out, that model has been more consistent!

[suzook]

1 minute ago, RamblinRed said:

I'm in Cherokee Co, GA (NW ATL). Just hoping for 3+ here. We got a new sled after the 2018 storm and haven't had a chance to use it yet. Now in a development that has large hills. Son would have a blast if we get legit snow.

My daughter is hoping for snow Friday so she doesn't have to drive downtown. May get her wish.

That NAM run would create a huge mess from about Buckhead south to Macon with ice.

 

3+?? That's like hitting the million dollar lottery for you. I still think even up by you, freezing rain/sleet comes into play, keeping totals down a little.

[Met1985]

12 minutes ago, StoneColdWeatherAustin said:

Can that HP placement cause any issues with bringing in warm air from the south?

With living in the SE we are almost always going to be fighting warm air but with snow to our west and north that helps a lot. 

[neatlburbwthrguy]

1 minute ago, suzook said:

3+?? That's like hitting the million dollar lottery for you. I still think even up by you, freezing rain/sleet comes into play, keeping totals down a little.

3+ inches 30-40 miles north of ATL is very possible.  Almost every model is showing that as of right now.  I would say it is at least a 50% or more chance.  

[snowmaker13]

WPC

[StoneColdWeatherAustin]

4 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

With living in the SE we are almost always going to be fighting warm air but with snow to our west and north that helps a lot. 

Thanks.  I know normally the prime placement is in the NE area funneling the air down into CAD region.  I am not as familiar with seeing one sitting on the NC/GA border in a Miller A setup.

[suzook]

7 minutes ago, neatlburbwthrguy said:

3+ inches 30-40 miles north of ATL is very possible.  Almost every model is showing that as of right now.  I would say it is at least a 50% or more chance.  

The models are including sleet, which cuts totals. I am not saying it wont happen.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WXNewton]

32 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Looks very similar to the ICON

[NorthHillsWx]

I just want to remind the forum it’s currently Tuesday. Depending on where you are this system arrives at some point Friday. We’re getting into NAM and short range guidance range. There’s developing consensus with the globals. We’re seeing trends develop and other models are picking them up too, the windshield wiping is lessening. This is where we want to be at this range. Cold air source has been solidified more than we were thinking a few days ago. Suppression is off the table. The storm is there across guidance. Phase and exact track are critical but we haven’t been in THIS position since Jan 2022. Excellent discussion on this board. Our posters have been ALL OVER this threat. Now seeing news outlets and Mets sounding the horn. Very very encouraging signs all around. Let’s reel in the GFS. Let’s get some consistency with the strength of the system from the Euro. Ensemble support is there. We’re getting into short range guidance, so going into tomorrow we’ll have even more ways to view modeled storm evolution. Appreciate this board and all the posters. Hoping this one works out for a lot of the folks on here 

[snowmaker13]

6z Euro AI looks like a carbon copy of 0z. The consistency of this model is amazing. 

[Met1985]

4 minutes ago, StoneColdWeatherAustin said:

Thanks.  I know normally the prime placement is in the NE area funneling the air down into CAD region.  I am not as familiar with seeing one sitting on the NC/GA border in a Miller A setup.

A lot of the warm air advection comes from how the low travels.  Prime track for NC is up along the coast.  It keeps the warm air basically out to sea.

[BornAgain13]

2 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said:

6z Euro AI looks like a carbon copy of 0z. The consistency of this model is amazing. 

Got a snow map for it?

[BooneWX]

44 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Regardless of how it progresses, I’m encouraged that every model is showing an absolute thumping at the onset. Jan 2022 had the same feature and it put down 7 inches in Burke County before we switched to a wintry mix.

[snowmaker13]

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

Got a snow map for it?

[snowmaker13]

National Blend of Models

 

[snowmaker13]

Just now, snowmaker13 said:

National Blend of Models

 

[Derived42]

Everyone here in the CLT metro is very excited.  We haven't seen any kind of wintry stuff for close to 3 years! Thanks for all this awesome info everyone!

[olafminesaw]

RAH now has snow likely 70% chance of precip in my forecast Friday night!

[franklin NCwx]

21 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Got a snow map for it?

Qpf totals

[snowmaker13]

So far i'm thinking 2-4" for Asheville, NC. Which is winter storm warning criteria.