January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor

[snowmaker13]

[wncsnow]

8 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said:

Baby steps. Still trending positively for WNC. 

[SnowGoose69]

Euro is just less amped up overall so snow falls further south than some of the other models.  ATL would see a couple of inches before PL and FZRAPL on the Euro.  They don't see much snow at all on the other models as it begins as FZRAPL

[GaWx]

0Z Euro

ZR:

 

IP: @dsaur

 

Qpf:

[SnowDawg]

Seems like both GFS and Euro are making small adjustments toward one another each run. Middle ground scenario seeming likely for now. 

[GaWx]

0Z GEFS snow:

[GaWx]

0Z EPS woke up with a significant increase in snow!

 

[GaWx]

0Z EPS snow by member:

[dsaur]

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

0Z EPS woke up with a significant increase in snow!

 

Elevation seems to have little to do with it. I'm 35 to 50 feet lower that the heart of Atl , much higher than 6 flags, maybe 35 lower than Jonesboro, about 100 lower than Fulton Co stadium, yet so many of the  models seem to have  I20 programmed in, lol. Waa gets to I 20 too.  Cad gets past I20 also. Don't they know that??? At least this time Macon is invited to the party.

[NorthHillsWx]

NWS going with likely pops of a wintry mix for my point forecast Friday night. Pretty bullish for them 

[WXNewton]

06z ICON almost identical run to 0z. Slight increase in totals on the southern edge.

[lilj4425]

I’d like to cash in all my chips again sir. What do I have to sacrifice to get the ICON to verify? 

[strongwxnc]

31 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

06z ICON almost identical run to 0z. Slight increase in totals on the southern edge.

 

 

No doubt. The 06 CMC look great also.

Some great trends over night. 

[franklin NCwx]

1 minute ago, strongwxnc said:

No doubt. The 06 CMC look great also.

Some great trends over night. 

So does the 0z euro AI with QPF totals

[olafminesaw]

The GFS is still the Northern outlier, maybe a tiny step towards the rest of guidance at 6z.  Nice to see the model on an an island with everything else being favorable for once and not the other way around! 

[mclean02]

7 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

ICON found the I-85 line. My god, it’s happening 

Classic storms I remember from the 2000s and 90s, when my friends who moved to NC from up north would say, "Why is the forecast a wintry mix here and not snow all the time?" To Ed Mathews when he came to our school. 

[BornAgain13]

FWIW, someone was about to get NAM'D

[suzook]

GA looking really bad for ice. Gonna be lots of power out if that happens

[buckeyefan1]

12 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

FWIW, someone was about to get NAM'D

Agreed

[wake4est]

06z EURO & EPS were better for Central NC for sure.

 

[NorthHillsWx]

Pretty much every model trended better for most on this forum overnight. EURO CMC and ICON all pretty much agree on storm track, leaving GFS on an island there. As was said above, that’s not usually the island you’d want to die on when making a forecast.  

[Brick Tamland]

10 minutes ago, wake4est said:

06z EURO & EPS were better for Central NC for sure.

 

Liking the trends and seeing the Euro joining the party late. 

[Met1985]

This look at the end of the NAM looks ripe. Obviously it 84 hour but just gives another snapshot of this system. I'd say things will really come into focus tonight into tomorrow morning...

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[suzook]

7 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

This look at the end of the NAM looks ripe. Obviously it 84 hour but just gives another snapshot of this system. I'd say things will really come into focus tonight into tomorrow morning...

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

UGH, Full ICE storm south of ATL.

[Met1985]

3 minutes ago, suzook said:

UGH, Full ICE storm south of ATL.

Looking like a possibility. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[NorthHillsWx]

13 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Having the Euro onboard for a decent storm with run to run consistency is so nice 

[NorthHillsWx]

I’m not saying it’s correct and it’s the NAM but DPs in single digits to around 10 across most of the Carolina’s as the storm rolls in… That’s a pretty classic wedge setting up 

[StantonParkHoya]

Sure wish the GFS would fold soon

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

Sure wish the GFS would fold soon

It’s still well west of its ensemble mean. GFS ensemble has a LP position 50 miles off of hatteras. Workable.