January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor

[Bevo]

6 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

I asked for an educated view of why I am wrong. I didn't attack or get disruptive. I asked a legit question. Answer it and show me where I am wrong so I can learn. 

I mean, the burden of proof is on you. You made the assertion. Full stop. You did it confidently. So then show me why YOU think what you do.

[BooneWX]

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I see small positive steps from the 18Z euro. Yes it's paltry over NC but it is slowly increasing moisture and has a better orientation of the precip. I think (and hope) by tomorrow at 12Z it will be beefed up. 

Ratios in our area would also be better than 10:1

[buckeyefan1]

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I see small positive steps from the 18Z euro. Yes it's paltry over NC but it is slowly increasing moisture and has a better orientation of the precip. I think (and hope) by tomorrow at 12Z it will be beefed up. 

It's trying so hard to be the storm we all want  

[Bevo]

@TARHEELPROGRAMMER88The "X" tells me all I need to know. Have you ever considered it might be an iss"you"? 

[btownheel]

P15 or P24 and ill cash my chips.


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Yeh, I’ll take P24 and call it winter happily.


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[buckeyefan1]

 it tried

[StantonParkHoya]

10 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said:

RIP power gird. @eyewalllooks like you gonna get a massive ice storm. 

Just wish it didn’t look like it was rendered on a Game Boy from 1992

[btownheel]

Seriously? WTF are you looking at?

He’s become really tedious. Has to come doom every model run.


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[WXNewton]

Overall 18z GEFS brings more precip to the entire area when compared to 12z GEFS the trend is pretty clear.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER88]

Just now, WXNewton said:

Overall 18z GEFS brings more precip to the entire area when compared to 12z GEFS the trend is pretty clear.

Can you share the temp trends during that time?

[eyewall]

 

 

There is ensemble support with the Euro for a less amped solution and a decent amount of members that take RDU out of the grey and into at least the blue colors for amounts (better than an inch).

[wncsnow]

Just now, eyewall said:

 

 

There is ensemble support with the Euro for a less amped solution and a decent amount of members that take RDU out of the grey and into at least the blue colors for amounts (better than an inch).

Solid again from the Euro. Few misses and a couple big hits 

[BornAgain13]

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

 

 

There is ensemble support with the Euro for a less amped solution and a decent amount of members that take RDU out of the grey and into at least the blue colors for amounts (better than an inch).

Best I can tell, that is a step in the right direction!

[StantonParkHoya]

Hmm… interested to see the mean. Couple big dogs for RDU in there.

they may be pulling me back in!

[suzook]

If the models are still looking good by tomorrow afternoon, I'm gonna start believing. Although, my area literally is, and has been the cutoff. I'll take the inch I keep seeing.

[NorthHillsWx]

Even though the GFS track was obviously not good, I’m encouraged by everything from 18z. GFS was the system we want. Just need a better track. Cold was there across the board. Baby steps on Euro. I’ll go ahead and say it here: I think the RDU streak ends with this one. Just gotta figure out if it’s a snowstorm or the typical piedmont mixed bag. Good trends through the day IMO. 

[CaryWx]

12 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Hmm… interested to see the mean. Couple big dogs for RDU in there.

they may be pulling me back in!

Need to see the 0z gfs Operational run back off that inland somewhat odd tracked SLP just a bit.  The CAD is not not of premium quality so there is enough merit to not just simply write off that track

[sarcean]

25 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Wake County has more population. Not everyone is in Raleigh proper

 

Not disputing RDU.

Whether by city population, 482k (Raleigh) vs 911k (Charlotte) or metro (2.3 metro Raleigh vs 3.4 million), Charlotte is clearly bigger. Raleigh has many competiting cities with Cary, Durham, Chapel Hill, etc but Charlotte is much bigger.

Hope for all us to score on snow.

[CaryWx]

10 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Even though the GFS track was obviously not good, I’m encouraged by everything from 18z. GFS was the system we want. Just need a better track. Cold was there across the board. Baby steps on Euro. I’ll go ahead and say it here: I think the RDU streak ends with this one. Just gotta figure out if it’s a snowstorm or the typical piedmont mixed bag. Good trends through the day IMO. 

If we take a blend of the euro and gfs runs not a bad place to be.  

[olafminesaw]

11 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Even though the GFS track was obviously not good, I’m encouraged by everything from 18z. GFS was the system we want. Just need a better track. Cold was there across the board. Baby steps on Euro. I’ll go ahead and say it here: I think the RDU streak ends with this one. Just gotta figure out if it’s a snowstorm or the typical piedmont mixed bag. Good trends through the day IMO. 

Good summary! Our resident Debbie Downers wouldn't know a good storm chance if it kicked them in the face!

[Rsheely88]

More of a lurker and not a poster. In SE Va hoping this is our storm as well. Saw this on X and is

GFS Op is far west end of the ensemble


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[BornAgain13]

This thread is hotter than a billy goat in a pepper patch...

Love seeing all the positivity. Hopefully the trends continue!

[NorthHillsWx]

4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

This thread is hotter than a billy goat in a pepper patch...

Love seeing all the positivity. Hopefully the trends continue!

And it’s not positivity based on one run of the GFS while everything else says no… This feels like the good old days and is looking more and more like a classic SE storm. Little bit of everything and being north of 85 helps. God it’s been awhile

[StantonParkHoya]

Let’s get weird with some long range NAM

[SunAndRainbowsNC]

It is no doubt going to snow 30 inches across places in the south if the trends keep up. This amount of positive vibes will bring in the good weather. I cannot believe it has been so long. Any negativity is not needed, only good feelings on the models now. 

[BooneWX]

6 minutes ago, SunAndRainbowsNC said:

It is no doubt going to snow 30 inches across places in the south if the trends keep up. This amount of positive vibes will bring in the good weather. I cannot believe it has been so long. Any negativity is not needed, only good feelings on the models now. 

We know this is you @uncCheatProgrammer

[SunAndRainbowsNC]

Just now, BooneWX said:

We know this is you @uncCheatProgrammer

Huh? I am a state grad. I am just trying to get rid of the bad vibes he caused. 

[BornAgain13]

Just now, SunAndRainbowsNC said:

Huh? I am a state grad. I am just trying to get rid of the bad vibes he caused. 

Is it SunsAndRainbows or is it ExaggerationsAndFabrications? 

[wncsnow]

Y'all remember Wilkesdude? There have been some funny times and people on here in the past. 

I think my favorite was the one met who went rogue and cursed everyone out. 

[snowmaker13]

The Weather Channel outlook