Jan 11th-12th Super Bomb or Super Bummed?

[BoulderWX]

Just another run. Nothing to deduce aside from that it has a storm on the EC.
 

GFS has been relatively consistent *with the idea* for the past 2-3 days but consistency doesn’t equate to accuracy as we all know and even still, we’ve seen even the most aggressive model for snow blank on several runs. 
 

If we still have players on the field Wednesday then we can start dissecting run to run. Until then, enjoy the possibility. 

[mikeysed]

2 footer . Woo

[hooralph]

2 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Point taken.  I was just going by the official record.  Yes, those pictures don't jive with the official record.

On the other hand the drifting was historic.  One side of the street was swept essentially clean and the other side was buried.  Hard to tell in that picture what was from drifts with then removed snow piled on.  I have a nice book of 1888 somewhere by Judd Caplovich somewhere but have not picked it up in decades. 

I suspect 1888 and 1947 are the true GOATs and would stand alone probably in the 30s using today's measurement practices.

[MANDA]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Some. Then lost it until Christmas eve

From Christmas Eve into Christmas day it was locked and loaded.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, MANDA said:

From Christmas Eve into Christmas day it was locked and loaded.

Crazy to think 3 days out it was a fish storm on all the models

[brooklynwx99]

GEFS has way more phasing 

[Snowlover11]

Starting not to be fantasy its 5 days out.

[NEG NAO]

The 18Z is still using old data from earlier the real test will be when the new data is injected into the model at 0Z ........

[jdj5211]

I think at this point we can agree there will be a phased system coming out of the gulf....the question remains does it ride the coast and if so, how close?  or does it just slide out to sea...the next 24-48 hours of runs will begin to paint the picture one way or the other....fun times ahead in here!  

[NEG NAO]

Just now, jdj5211 said:

I think at this point we can agree there will be a phased system coming out of the gulf....the question remains does it ride the coast and if so, how close?  or does it just slide out to sea...the next 24-48 hours of runs will begin to paint the picture one way or the other....fun times ahead in here!  

unfortunately until the Euro shows that it doesn't agree yet and the GFS can easily lose the phase at 0Z

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

9 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Point taken.  I was just going by the official record.  Yes, those pictures don't jive with the official record.

On the other hand the drifting was historic.  One side of the street was swept essentially clean and the other side was buried.  Hard to tell in that picture what was from drifts with then removed snow piled on.  I have a nice book of 1888 somewhere by Judd Caplovich but have not picked it up in decades. 

Look at the pictures from 1888 and the measurements surrounding Manhattan. Remember there was no snow on the ground when the storm started. 
 

Brooklyn was 36 inches, New Haven 45 inches and the entire HV of SE NY 40-60 inches. That somehow Manhattan measured 21 inches from that storm is a total joke. It's a shame they haven't had that corrected over the years. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Look at the pictures from 1888 and the measurements surrounding Manhattan. Remember there was no snow on the ground when the storm started. 
 

Brooklyn was 36 inches, New Haven 45 inches and the entire HV of SE NY 40-60 inches. That somehow Manhattan measured 21 inches from that storm is a total joke. It's a shame they haven't had that corrected over the years. 

The same family lines measure CP since the 1800s. Bad genes 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, jdj5211 said:

I think at this point we can agree there will be a phased system coming out of the gulf....the question remains does it ride the coast and if so, how close?  or does it just slide out to sea...the next 24-48 hours of runs will begin to paint the picture one way or the other....fun times ahead in here!  

We're not at that point that we know it'll phase. 

[dseagull]

I think I'll wear my airpods toggled to noise cancelation mode as I sleep tonight.  If the 0z runs all mimic the GFS, the chorus of NY weenies will be absolutely deafening.  

[SnoSki14]

That's a nice look from the GEFS at day 4-5

[MJO812]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

That's a nice look from the GEFS at day 4-5

 

[Franklin0529]

17 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

unfortunately until the Euro shows that it doesn't agree yet and the GFS can easily lose the phase at 0Z

It's not just the GFS though. 

[Franklin0529]

Just now, MJO812 said:

 

Always gonna follow OP. But it's good to see the support 

[Stormlover74]

Where's doorman when you need him?

[Roger Smith]

Any actual storm in time frame Jan 11-14 will be tapping on tidal energy peak as moon passes its northern declination max on Jan 12, and full moon is Jan 14.

In my research, storm index values in eastern N America generally peak at 2-3x random expectation in this time window; another peak will occur Jan 26-29 with the opposite pair of events, southern max and new moon. The separation is longer each "syzygy" as declination cycle is 27.32 days (sidereal) and full moon period is 29.53 days (synodic). By June, new moon and northern max coincide. 

Research establishes that moon is not setting up steering patterns so it's a second-order energy peak entirely dependent on other factors setting up the scenario it works within, but if there's any sort of reasonable pattern, Jan  11-12  is likely to be a "big event." If this were a torch pattern, a northern max low would be expected to be a strong cutter bringing warmth and rainfall to n.e. states, if it were a near-average zonal flow it would likely be a mild day followed by strong W-NW winds. 

The models are clearly picking p the energy peak, depends on the degree of suppression as to where the deep low goes once passing 85W. 

In previous years, snowfall events around Jan 11-12:

 7.8" Jan 10-11, 1954

 5.7" Jan 11 1991

 9.1" Jan 11-12, 2011

12.5" Jan 12-13, 1964 

 8.7" Jan 13 1939

 

 

 

 

 

 

[coastalplainsnowman]

17 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Look at the pictures from 1888 and the measurements surrounding Manhattan. Remember there was no snow on the ground when the storm started. 
 

Brooklyn was 36 inches, New Haven 45 inches and the entire HV of SE NY 40-60 inches. That somehow Manhattan measured 21 inches from that storm is a total joke. It's a shame they haven't had that corrected over the years. 

I guess the undermeasurement of snow in Manhattan is not a new phenomenon.  Apparently it's been a problem for at least 137 years.

[romba]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Where's doorman when you need him?

I got you

 

 

When the wind blows, we all know who goes 

[Nibor]

1 minute ago, romba said:

I got you

 

 

When the wind blows, we all know who goes 

Way too coherent. Needs more nonsensical gibberish. 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Nibor said:

Way too coherent. Needs more nonsensical gibberish. 

Is it for real or just a phase I'm going through?

[North and West]

Please make it happen. 
 
 

STOP THE COUNT!


.

[EastonSN+]

Where's Forky.

[cleetussnow]

1 minute ago, North and West said:

STOP THE COUNT!


.

Kuchie?

[weatherpruf]

11 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Any actual storm in time frame Jan 11-14 will be tapping on tidal energy peak as moon passes its northern declination max on Jan 12, and full moon is Jan 14.

In my research, storm index values in eastern N America generally peak at 2-3x random expectation in this time window; another peak will occur Jan 26-29 with the opposite pair of events, southern max and new moon. The separation is longer each "syzygy" as declination cycle is 27.32 days (sidereal) and full moon period is 29.53 days (synodic). By June, new moon and northern max coincide. 

Research establishes that moon is not setting up steering patterns so it's a second-order energy peak entirely dependent on other factors setting up the scenario it works within, but if there's any sort of reasonable pattern, Jan  11-12  is likely to be a "big event." If this were a torch pattern, a northern max low would be expected to be a strong cutter bringing warmth and rainfall to n.e. states, if it were a near-average zonal flow it would likely be a mild day followed by strong W-NW winds. 

The models are clearly picking p the energy peak, depends on the degree of suppression as to where the deep low goes once passing 85W. 

In previous years, snowfall events around Jan 11-12:

 7.8" Jan 10-11, 1954

 5.7" Jan 11 1991

 9.1" Jan 11-12, 2011

12.5" Jan 12-13, 1964 

 8.7" Jan 13 1939

 

 

 

 

 

 

Anecdotally over the years, as an angler and seafarer we have noted that moons often accompany bad weather events.

[North and West]

This storm is going to occur based upon incredible scientific reasoning that I have fostered throughout my schooling and subsequent career:

My retired parents have a flight scheduled to escape to their oceanfront condo where it’s currently 70° for a month first thing Monday Morning out of EWR.

Lock it in. Signed, sealed, delivered.


.

[jdj5211]

someone keep an eye on 18z Euro....let's see what we got!