MANDA Posted Monday at 07:54 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:54 PM Link to Extended discussion from WPC. While their extended progs lean away from GFS solution they have left the door open for changes. I'm not favoring the GFS solution at the moment but IF the EURO is hanging too much energy back over the SW (as it sometimes does) then a better outcome is possible. I wouldn't be slamming the door on this just yet. It is 5 days away with a complex evolution. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted Monday at 07:56 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:56 PM 1 minute ago, Nibor said: A happy compromise of disappointment. I just try to be grateful these days for any amount of snow we get here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted Monday at 07:57 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:57 PM If you’re looking for A GFS like solution you’re setting yourself up for disappointment not only in outcome, but with every model run between now and the weekend. If you’re good with a 3-6 or 4-8 storm, you can root for a CMC like depiction which is way more realistic than the GFS and seems like a fair middle ground as of now in this synoptic setup. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted Monday at 08:04 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:04 PM Maybe better pictures. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Monday at 08:13 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:13 PM 9 minutes ago, MANDA said: Maybe better pictures. is that a hurricane making landfall? So many isobars! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Monday at 08:17 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:17 PM 25 minutes ago, MANDA said: At one point. Maybe the Thursday or Friday before event started one of the models (UKMET) I think had a 954 low over central New England. Managed to save the 36 and 48 hour panels off the NGM and they hang on my wall. Those 36 and 48 hour positions were about 50-75 miles further west than reality on the NGM. Hard to read as the glass of the frame didn't allow the best picture. What I distinctly remember about March 1993 was watching the mid day update on ABC 7 and listening to it on 1010 WINS both said the new model runs came in and said the storm would pass over Montauk and not west of NYC and we would all get over 20 inches. That turned out to be wrong. It's why I rate that storm a B+, January 1996 was the first HECS I witnessed as an adult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted Monday at 08:35 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:35 PM 27 minutes ago, MANDA said: Maybe better pictures. It would have been epic if that took a classic BM track instead. Had heavy snow during the day. Then the warm up and rain and big tidal surge which floated away the whole snowpack which was really compacted. The mini icebergs settled to the ground after floating around the streets and froze into cement blocks with the rapidly falling temps and flash freeze next morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Monday at 08:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:37 PM 1 minute ago, bluewave said: It would have been epic if that took a classic BM track instead. Had heavy snow during the day. Then the warm up and rain and big tidal surge which floated away the whole snowpack which was really compacted. The mini icebergs settled to the ground after floating around the streets and froze into cement blocks with the rapidly falling temps and flash freeze next morning. Is it even possible for a triple phaser to take a benchmark track? I don't think it's ever happened. Up by Nova Scotia it's no problem, they get triple phasers every few years up there. 2004 had a really big one up that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted Monday at 08:44 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 08:44 PM 46 minutes ago, BoulderWX said: If you’re looking for A GFS like solution you’re setting yourself up for disappointment not only in outcome, but with every model run between now and the weekend. If you’re good with a 3-6 or 4-8 storm, you can root for a CMC like depiction which is way more realistic than the GFS and seems like a fair middle ground as of now in this synoptic setup. Gfs or bust 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted Monday at 08:52 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:52 PM 15 minutes ago, bluewave said: It would have been epic if that took a classic BM track instead. Had heavy snow during the day. Then the warm up and rain and big tidal surge which floated away the whole snowpack which was really compacted. The mini icebergs settled to the ground after floating around the streets and froze into cement blocks with the rapidly falling temps and flash freeze next morning. Have often thought that. A track 75 miles or so to the east of where it went would have rivaled the Blizzard of 1888 in NYC. Those tremendous totals in update NY would have been much closer to the city if things were displaced a rather short distance to the east. Never lost the cold at the surface over in Morris County just the mid levels as it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted Monday at 08:56 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:56 PM The Euro and GFS are pretty similar earlier on. The major differences aloft occur late Thursday night into Friday morning. It all comes down to timing. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Monday at 09:24 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:24 PM It's the icon but it looked like it might have at least been a scraper (only goes to 120) Now comes the run where the gfs completely loses the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guinness77 Posted Monday at 09:26 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:26 PM Don’t worry, people. We have to drive from Hartford back to Long Island on Sunday, mid-morning/afternoon. This is gonna be the one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted Monday at 09:26 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:26 PM 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: It's the icon but it looked like it might have at least been a scraper (only goes to 120) upper levels look much better with less energy hanging back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Monday at 09:28 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:28 PM 37 minutes ago, MANDA said: Have often thought that. A track 75 miles or so to the east of where it went would have rivaled the Blizzard of 1888 in NYC. Those tremendous totals in update NY would have been much closer to the city if things were displaced a rather short distance to the east. Never lost the cold at the surface over in Morris County just the mid levels as it was. But 1888 totals were far exceeded by the January 2016 mega blizzard, I have a hard time believing ANY storm would have exceeded the 30+ inches we got here in that storm, regardless of track. The 1993 storm was in and out in one day..... if any storm could have done it, it would have been the February 1921 storm that was like 17 inches of sleet over 3 days. Almost 5 inches of liquid which would have been like 50 inches of snow if all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Monday at 09:28 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:28 PM Resembles the CMC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Monday at 09:29 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:29 PM 54 minutes ago, bluewave said: It would have been epic if that took a classic BM track instead. Had heavy snow during the day. Then the warm up and rain and big tidal surge which floated away the whole snowpack which was really compacted. The mini icebergs settled to the ground after floating around the streets and froze into cement blocks with the rapidly falling temps and flash freeze next morning. February 1921 if all snow would have been the most snow this area could possibly ever see in one storm. 17 inches of sleet as it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Monday at 09:31 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:31 PM 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Resembles the CMC Yeah at very least a few inches. Could've come up the coast hard to say 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted Monday at 09:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:37 PM Hi... I'm reluctant to buy into a big storm right now... IF NO PHASE between the northern and southern streams, then no big storm. Many members of the 12z/6 GEFS are running the northern stream short wave out ahead of the southern stream. That to me is out to sea and snow ice favored NC-Delmarva- s NJ. The mean trough on the GEFS would allow snow up here but concerned this 5H flow is going to look different come Friday (less high amplitude N/S- troughing). For now the EPS is meager, and WPC D6 qpf and winter wx are also meager. That can change but am thinking conservatively and not planning big up here. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted Monday at 09:38 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:38 PM 5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Yeah at very least a few inches. Could've come up the coast hard to say It was getting ready to head east in the next few frames. Our problem even if we get a strong storm is that s/w coming into the plains that acts as a kicker. So we couldn’t get a storm that stalls and loops near the benchmark like a lot of the classic ones do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Monday at 09:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:39 PM 8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Yeah at very least a few inches. Could've come up the coast hard to say I feel like if the euro was not leaving energy in the Southwest it would look like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Monday at 09:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:41 PM 10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Yeah at very least a few inches. Could've come up the coast hard to say Nice trend with the icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted Monday at 09:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:42 PM 13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Resembles the CMC Sure does. Very much in line with my thoughts on a more moderate system. Thinking ceiling is a 3-6” event but hopefully most would be happy with that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted Monday at 09:53 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:53 PM 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: my first 20 incher too near JFK. Our best storm until January 1996! '83 began in Garden City around 1pm. Ended around midnight. 23". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted Monday at 09:55 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:55 PM 25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: But 1888 totals were far exceeded by the January 2016 mega blizzard, I have a hard time believing ANY storm would have exceeded the 30+ inches we got here in that storm, regardless of track. The 1993 storm was in and out in one day..... if any storm could have done it, it would have been the February 1921 storm that was like 17 inches of sleet over 3 days. Almost 5 inches of liquid which would have been like 50 inches of snow if all snow. 1888 in the city had totals MUCH lower than Jan 1996. I was only referencing 1993 vs. 1888 to compare March storms. A track to the east would have easily doubled what NYC got in 1March 1993 with winds gusting to hurricane force. Would have been an epic blizzard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted Monday at 09:56 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:56 PM Just now, STORMANLI said: '83 began in Garden City around 1pm. Ended around midnight. 23". Started 1:30 pm in Syosset and ended at 7am on Saturday the 12th. Listened to description of the snow getting into NYC for several hours before it finally started in NE Nassau. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted Monday at 09:58 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:58 PM 12z Euro and 18z GFS are nearly identical at H5 at hour and then differences begin. GFS is already digging the Northern stream into the Dakotas while the Euro is well North of the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted Monday at 09:59 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:59 PM 18Z GFS bomb incoming.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted Monday at 10:00 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:00 PM 10 minutes ago, MANDA said: 1888 in the city had totals MUCH lower than Jan 1996. I was only referencing 1993 vs. 1888 to compare March storms. A track to the east would have easily doubled what NYC got in 1March 1993 with winds gusting to hurricane force. Would have been an epic blizzard. This is a myth. 21" was the maximum snowdepth in NYC during a 3 day storm in 1888; the record shows an entire day of snowfall that added 0. Also look at snowdepths from elsewhere around the region (not BOS, which got skunked). Plenty of cool old photos remain if you search for them. You don't have to take my word for it. Ask RC, he was there at the postage stamp 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted Monday at 10:01 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:01 PM 3 minutes ago, MANDA said: 1888 in the city had totals MUCH lower than Jan 1996. I was only referencing 1993 vs. 1888 to compare March storms. A track to the east would have easily doubled what NYC got in 1March 1993 with winds gusting to hurricane force. Would have been an epic blizzard. Yeah I don't think they were brushing off the snowboard to get measurements every 6 hours in 1888. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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