Jan 11th-12th Super Bomb or Super Bummed?

[David-LI]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I meant the Euro Ensembles.........I am discounting the entire GFS Suite. Look how they mislead us on this event with all the amped up members

 

EPS is a miss too.

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, David-LI said:

EPS is a miss too.

if the Euro OP and ensemblles were even close to the GFS I wouldn't be discounting the GFS but its hard to get a phase with that setup. And we are only 5-6 days away

[brooklynwx99]

here are the three major ensembles. none of them are really THAT different, they just have different degrees of phasing... and I couldn't tell you which is correct. just going to have to get things sorted over the next few days

[brooklynwx99]

also, the GEPS is much closer to the GEFS than the EPS. it's not like the GEFS has zero support

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

here are the three major ensembles. none of them are really THAT different, they just have different degrees of phasing... and I couldn't tell you which is correct. just going to have to get things sorted over the next few days

now honestly which one would you put your money on ? 

[White Gorilla]

In this overall pattern, would shorter wavelengths deeper into the season help with phasing opportunities?

[EastonSN+]

All three ensemble suites were a little better.

Currently the CMC is right in the middle. 

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

now honestly which one would you put your money on ? 

the EPS is probably right? but this is a volatile setup and it could easily be messing one of the streams up. no point in mailing any outcome in

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the EPS is probably right? but this is a volatile setup and it could easily be messing one of the streams up. no point in mailing any outcome in

I do like seeing the CMC and the ensembles closer to the GFS than the euro.

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

That doesn't mean they came together easily. Also the gfs didn't have January 1996 until 36 hours before

Feb 83 wasn't decided until the morning of for most of this forum.  Guidance as of 11pm night before said no.  Had surface low going east of Hatteras.  My first clue was plotting up a surface map the morning of by hand (we did that back in the day) and there were good pressure falls into eastern NC and Hatteras had an E to ESE wind.  Low was not going to pass east of them and up it came to off the coast of NJ about as far as ACY then scooted ENE from there. Took forever for snow to move from Staten Island into mid-town Manhattan. 

Big surge of moisture with DP's into the 60's off the coast of SC.  Low was of modest depth in the mid to high 990's if I remember correctly.  Very dynamic though as there was thunder and lightning for several hours at the peak of the event during the evening hours.  One of my favorite storms in terms of snowfall intensity.  Ended before sunrise and sun was out and melting underway by the afternoon. 

Drove home from the city just as the heavy stuff was getting underway.  Lucky to have made it to Bayonne and stayed with a relative.  Intensity was insane once I came out of the Lincoln Tunnel and the trip down the NJ Turnpike was hellish.  The trip across the Newark Bay Extension took the better part of an hour.  I was worried I was going to be stuck on that bridge but thankfully it crept along.  By time I arrived in Bayonne better than 6" on the ground, about 3 hours after I left the city.

1978 was well forecast the LFM had it and kept it for 48 hours.  Longer range Spectral / Baroclinic gave solid signal 5 days out and 5 day extended discussion from NMC (at the time) was all over it.

1993 forecast well in advance and hardly any wavering.  Euro was all over it.  GFS was flailing and was the last to lock it in but 5 days in advance the forecast signal was great.

1996 did not solidify until the 12Z runs the day before the event.  Looked to pass south prior to those Saturday morning runs.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

‘83 was a big El Niño year and I was only 5 years old living in northern Virginia. Probably got around 20 inches in that storm and remember playing out in snow for first time. I trace my love of snowstorms to February 1983 and that was our biggest until January 1996.

my first 20 incher too near JFK.  Our best storm until January 1996!

[SnowGoose69]

19 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

In this overall pattern, would shorter wavelengths deeper into the season help with phasing opportunities?

Yeah probably.  I said yesterday I'd be more likely to believe this climbs the coast in  March than early January.

[Tatamy]

18 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Feb 83 wasn't decided until the morning of for most of this forum.  Guidance as of 11pm night before said no.  Had surface low going east of Hatteras.  My first clue was plotting up a surface map the morning of by hand (we did that back in the day) and there were good pressure falls into eastern NC and Hatteras had an E to ESE wind.  Low was not going to pass east of them and up it came to off the coast of NJ about as far as ACY then scooted ENE from there. Took forever for snow to move from Staten Island into mid-town Manhattan. 

Big surge of moisture with DP's into the 60's off the coast of SC.  Low was of modest depth in the mid to high 990's if I remember correctly.  Very dynamic though as there was thunder and lightning for several hours at the peak of the event during the evening hours.  One of my favorite storms in terms of snowfall intensity.  Ended before sunrise and sun was out and melting underway by the afternoon. 

Drove home from the city just as the heavy stuff was getting underway.  Lucky to have made it to Bayonne and stayed with a relative.  Intensity was insane once I came out of the Lincoln Tunnel and the trip down the NJ Turnpike was hellish.  The trip across the Newark Bay Extension took the better part of an hour.  I was worried I was going to be stuck on that bridge but thankfully it crept along.  By time I arrived in Bayonne better than 6" on the ground, about 3 hours after I left the city.

1978 was well forecast the LFM. It had it and kept it for 48 hours.  Longer range Spectral / Baroclinic gave solid signal 5 days out and 5 day extended discussion from NMC (at the time) was all over it.

1993 forecast well in advance and hardly any wavering.  Euro was all over it.  GFS was flailing and was the last to lock it in but 5 days in advance the forecast signal was great.

1996 did not solidify until the 12Z runs the day before the event.  Looked to pass south prior to those Saturday morning runs.

83 was a wild storm where I was out on the island on the north shore.  We had several hours overnight of winds gusting to 40 - 65 mph on my weather station along with occasional mixing with graupel.  I believe that there were gravity waves associated with that storm as well.  As you noted it took forever for the snow shield to move in.  When it did so it came in like a wall of white at 3:00 PM and we transitioned to heavy snow quickly.

[Edge Weather]

Well, EC EPS isn't even close to anything interesting.  Not over yet for sure, but right now definitely looks like a no go.

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

83 was a wild storm where I was out on the island on the north shore.  We had several hours overnight of winds gusting to 40 - 65 mph on my weather station along with occasional mixing with graupel.  I believe that there were gravity waves associated with that storm as well.  As you noted it took forever for the snow shield to move in.  When it did so it came in like a wall of white at 3:00 PM and we transitioned to heavy snow quickly.

That was a case where the south shore might have done better than the north shore, we had over 20" here.  I remember reading though that some parts of Long Island had up to 2 feet?

 

[mattinpa]

Just now, Edge Weather said:

Well, EC EPS isn't even close to anything interesting.  Not over yet for sure, but right now definitely looks like a no go.

Hope the CMC coming closer starts a trend. GFS has had multiple runs with a big storm. Too early to call yet. It could still get caught up in fast flow but we’ll see.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

I am solidly sold on an EPS/ECMWF solution. 

WX/PT

[SACRUS]

44 minutes ago, MANDA said:

 

1993 forecast well in advance and hardly any wavering.  Euro was all over it.  GFS was flailing and was the last to lock it in but 5 days in advance the forecast signal was great.

1996 did not solidify until the 12Z runs the day before the event.  Looked to pass south prior to those Saturday morning runs.

Those were the days of the MRF and AVN from the american suite.  Think the GFS started 2003 or 04.

[NEG NAO]

Bernie is confused too:

 

[MJO812]

19 minutes ago, Edge Weather said:

Well, EC EPS isn't even close to anything interesting.  Not over yet for sure, but right now definitely looks like a no go.

Definitely not over

Pattern is prime for a big storm. Hopefully we can get the timing to work out.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I’m wary of that kicker trough right on its heels, although if it really does full phase like the GFS, that kicker might save it being a quick changeover to rain hugger. It seems to get to a certain latitude then get booted east. 

Yeah, that OP run is a big outlier in today’s 12z model suite. 

[SnowGoose69]

7 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Those were the days of the MRF and AVN from the american suite.  Think the GFS started 2003 or 04.

October 2002.  The 93 blizzard the Euro/UKMET nailed it from like 144 hours out, the MSLP was too weak but they had like a 988mb low off the Delmarva.  96 everything was a near miss til Thursday then the Euro was the most west but nothing else was close til early Saturday

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, that OP run is a big outlier in today’s 12z model suite. 

I feel that what is being lost in the discussion is the fact that the CMC has a decent solution, which could lead to a moderate snowfall especially if it's a few miles north. 

The CMC and it's ensembles sit between the GFS and Euro. 

I think the CMC and the Euro are both plausible solutions. Hopefully the CMC is correct (really hoping for the GFS).

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I feel that what is being lost in the discussion is the fact that the CMC has a decent solution, which could lead to a moderate snowfall especially if it's a few miles north. 

The CMC and it's ensembles sit between the GFS and Euro. 

I think the CMC and the Euro are both plausible solutions. Hopefully the CMC is correct (really hoping for the GFS).

meanwhile, TWC showed the GFS solution on air and the snowfall map and said it shows over one foot of snow from Dallas to Boston lol

 

[vegan_edible]

euro has been trash since the update. not saying the gfs is correct either but lets all collectively stop praising the euro like a golden child when its consistently crapped the bed for the past 2 seasons

[MANDA]

26 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Those were the days of the MRF and AVN from the american suite.  Think the GFS started 2003 or 04.

Yes, sorry.  you are correct.  It was the AVN / MRF for 93 and 96 for sure.  Got carried away.

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I feel that what is being lost in the discussion is the fact that the CMC has a decent solution, which could lead to a moderate snowfall especially if it's a few miles north. 

The CMC and it's ensembles sit between the GFS and Euro. 

I think the CMC and the Euro are both plausible solutions. Hopefully the CMC is correct (really hoping for the GFS).

Yeah, the CMC would be a happy compromise between the GFS and Euro.

[MANDA]

32 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

October 2002.  The 93 blizzard the Euro/UKMET nailed it from like 144 hours out, the MSLP was too weak but they had like a 988mb low off the Delmarva.  96 everything was a near miss til Thursday then the Euro was the most west but nothing else was close til early Saturday

At one point.  Maybe the Thursday or Friday before event started one of the models (UKMET) I think had a 954 low over central New England. 

Managed to save the 36 and 48 hour panels off the NGM and they hang on my wall.

Those 36 and 48 hour positions were about 50-75 miles further west than reality on the NGM.

Hard to read as the glass of the frame didn't allow the best picture.

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Yes, sorry.  you are correct.  It was the AVN / MRF for 93 and 96 for sure.  Got carried away.

The AVN would make everything a rain storm all the time, it was crazy.  Back in 94 it had both the 2/11 and 1/26 events as rain 3 days out.  It kept driving everything too far north when there was confluence of strong highs in place.  It got better in the later years before it merged to the GFS

[Nibor]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the CMC would be a happy compromise between the GFS and Euro.

A happy compromise of disappointment.