RU848789 Posted Monday at 04:40 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:40 PM Please sir, may I have some more? 2 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Monday at 04:45 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:45 PM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Monday at 04:51 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:51 PM 21 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yup. I’ll sign for that as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted Monday at 04:51 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:51 PM And at least the CMC isn't a whiff anymore... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Monday at 04:54 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:54 PM Ukie actually isn't that far off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Monday at 04:55 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:55 PM So far GFS is a bomb. CMC improved. UKMET is a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted Monday at 04:56 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:56 PM 22 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Wait til the ukie shows snow in Tallahassee Snow gets down to Atlanta. But you’re close. It does look a hell of a lot better than 0z at least. Still whiffs everyone north of the M-D line but it’s closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Monday at 04:57 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:57 PM 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: So far GFS is a bomb. CMC improved. UKMET is a miss. And gefs look good. But need the euro to show something 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted Monday at 05:03 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:03 PM Yeah, the GFS is most aggressive with the closing off of the UL so it slows the NS enough for more of a phase. The CMC has a NS open wave so it doesn’t completely capture the low offshore. But most on here would gladly take the CMC run. It seems like when we did get big phases in the past we had better wave spacing that what the models are showing for this. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted Monday at 05:03 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:03 PM 24 minutes ago, bluewave said: The key seems to be how fast the Northern Stream UL closes off. The GFS is the most aggressive so it allows a quicker phase. The CMC still has an open wave near the Upper Plains at the same time and isn’t quite as phased. It may come down to a tiny sampling issue as to which model is correct. Probably the closest to something decent we have seen in quite some time. Anything to slow that NS down and close it off quicker in this pattern would be greatly appreciated. And keep the feature in the southwest moving along. Don't want that to slow down. We'll see what the EURO does with that. It has had a bias of slowing and hanging that feature up. Not sure if that was fixed in the recent upgrade. We'll get a hint in the next few days. If these pieces can come together we could get the goods. GFS flip flops aside there is decent GFES Ensemble support. At 5 days out this is about all you can expect. Would be happier if EURO and EPS at least nudged more favorable in the next 24 hours or so. I'm interested! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Monday at 05:09 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:09 PM 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the GFS is most aggressive with the closing off of the UL so it slows the NS enough for more of a phase. The CMC has a NS open wave so it doesn’t completely capture the low offshore. But most on here would gladly take the CMC run. It seems like when we did get big phases in the past we had better wave spacing that what the models are showing for this. I’m wary of that kicker trough right on its heels, although if it really does full phase like the GFS, that kicker might save it being a quick changeover to rain hugger. It seems to get to a certain latitude then get booted east. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Monday at 05:11 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:11 PM Just now, jm1220 said: I’m wary of that kicker trough right on its heels, although if it really does full phase like the GFS, that kicker might save it being a quick changeover to rain hugger. It seems to get to a certain latitude then get booted east. Yeah everything has to come together perfectly to get the gfs solution. I'm intrigued that it has shown a similar solution several times in addition to several misses. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Monday at 05:13 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:13 PM 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Yeah everything has to come together perfectly to get the gfs solution. I'm intrigued that it has shown a similar solution several times in addition to several misses. Really hoping it happens obviously. GFS is often toned down with these if anything and it’s showing crushing 3-4”/hr rates as it bombs off the Delmarva. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted Monday at 05:35 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:35 PM Yeah everything has to come together perfectly to get the gfs solution. I'm intrigued that it has shown a similar solution several times in addition to several misses. I posted this Saturday night and it was taken down. But when does a massive east coast snow storm come together without ease? It’s all a bunch of moving parts that need to line up . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Monday at 05:36 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:36 PM 1 minute ago, wishcast_hater said: I posted this Saturday night and it was taken down. But when does a massive east coast snow storm come together without ease? . Never which is why they're rare 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Monday at 05:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:39 PM 29 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I’m wary of that kicker trough right on its heels, although if it really does full phase like the GFS, that kicker might save it being a quick changeover to rain hugger. It seems to get to a certain latitude then get booted east. our biggest snowstorms had a kicker like that, they would get to the latitude of Delaware and then get booted east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted Monday at 05:40 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:40 PM 4 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said: I posted this Saturday night and it was taken down. But when does a massive east coast snow storm come together without ease? . Normally during REM sleep, most often after 8 or 9 strong cocktails the prior evening. 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted Monday at 05:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:42 PM EC says NO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Monday at 05:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:42 PM 6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Never which is why they're rare sometimes they do February 1978 was forecast a week in advance on 70s technology that's like going to the moon on 60s technology lol. February 1983 was forecast in advance. March 1993 was also forecast well in advance January 1996 was forecast in advance. PD2 was also forecast well in advance. Obviously the tracks nudged north/west but the signals for all of the above were there well in advance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted Monday at 05:44 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:44 PM 1 minute ago, Edge Weather said: EC says NO you already have the euro? it's still running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Monday at 05:46 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:46 PM 1 minute ago, David-LI said: you already have the euro? it's still running it misses east but it also holds energy back SW which it often does.... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Monday at 05:49 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:49 PM 6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: sometimes they do February 1978 was forecast a week in advance on 70s technology that's like going to the moon on 60s technology lol. February 1983 was forecast in advance. March 1993 was also forecast well in advance January 1996 was forecast in advance. PD2 was also forecast well in advance. Obviously the tracks nudged north/west but the signals for all of the above were there well in advance. That doesn't mean they came together easily. Also the gfs didn't have January 1996 until 36 hours before 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Monday at 05:50 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:50 PM Just now, Stormlover74 said: That doesn't mean they came together easily. Also the gfs didn't have January 1996 until 36 hours before The famous days of E/E model perfection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Monday at 05:56 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:56 PM 11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: it misses east but it also holds energy back SW which it often does.... Euro and Canadian basically miss - GFS is wrong AGAIN as usual....NYC snow drought continues with no end in sight 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Monday at 06:03 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:03 PM 6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Euro and Canadian basically miss - GFS is wrong AGAIN as usual....NYC snow drought continues with no end in sight I take it you haven't looked at the emsembles? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Monday at 06:04 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:04 PM Just now, Stormlover74 said: I take it you haven't looked at the emsembles? no post them for us ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Monday at 06:05 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:05 PM 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: no post them for us ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Monday at 06:12 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:12 PM 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I meant the Euro Ensembles.........I am discounting the entire GFS Suite. Look how they mislead us on this event with all the amped up members 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EWR757 Posted Monday at 06:15 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:15 PM The GFS needs to be decommissioned. I think the LFM was a better model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Monday at 06:15 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:15 PM 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Not out yet. But we have the gefs and geps on board of course the GFS ensembles will side with the GFS OP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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