SI Mailman Posted Monday at 05:39 AM Share Posted Monday at 05:39 AM 21 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Side note - Winds would be pretty significant here, but with no HP to the NW, the wind threat is not quite as high as it could/would be. Still something to watch nonetheless. I mentioned it in the January thread, but the full moon will be on Sunday, so extra high tides would lead to lots of coastal flooding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted Monday at 05:42 AM Share Posted Monday at 05:42 AM 56 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I only see it through 96 but it looks like it might be very amped in the end possibly. Hard to tell through that point It's amped, all right, across the deep south, until it fizzles, just nowhere near us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted Monday at 05:45 AM Share Posted Monday at 05:45 AM Looks like there might be some issues with the euro. Stuck on multiple sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted Monday at 05:58 AM Share Posted Monday at 05:58 AM One of the problems we have is that there is no real eastern trough. We are on the backside of a North Atlantic trough which is typically very dry with abundant confluence. It's very difficult to get a storm to make the left turn up the coast at the right time to get us in the sweet spot. The lack of any eastern trough in combination with our being on the backside of an Atlantic trough is why the storms do not make the turn and head straight out to sea. Having the North Atlantic trough makes it more difficult for us to get that eastern trough as well. WX/PT 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silver Meteor Posted Monday at 06:16 AM Share Posted Monday at 06:16 AM 58 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It happened in February 89, VA/DelMarva got like 20 inches in 7 days The years blur at my age (73) but I was living in Fenwick Island, DE (a stone's throw above the MD state line) around that time and boy did we have a storm, a full-on blizzard. The wind roared in from the ocean with heavy snow blowing sideways. At the height of the storm with visibility down to zero the governor ordered the snow plows to halt. The snow drifted to above the top of my front door yet there were bare patches of ground in my yard. It was like that everywhere in the neighborhood. I don't recall the year precisely but I'll absolutely never forget that storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted Monday at 06:38 AM Share Posted Monday at 06:38 AM Euro is a miss 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Monday at 11:14 AM Share Posted Monday at 11:14 AM 4 hours ago, SI Mailman said: Euro is a miss Gfs also but the ensembles look good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Monday at 12:31 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:31 PM 6 hours ago, Silver Meteor said: The years blur at my age (73) but I was living in Fenwick Island, DE (a stone's throw above the MD state line) around that time and boy did we have a storm, a full-on blizzard. The wind roared in from the ocean with heavy snow blowing sideways. At the height of the storm with visibility down to zero the governor ordered the snow plows to halt. The snow drifted to above the top of my front door yet there were bare patches of ground in my yard. It was like that everywhere in the neighborhood. I don't recall the year precisely but I'll absolutely never forget that storm. that was our virga year, just cloudy and cold here and no snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Monday at 01:00 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:00 PM 7 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: One of the problems we have is that there is no real eastern trough. We are on the backside of a North Atlantic trough which is typically very dry with abundant confluence. It's very difficult to get a storm to make the left turn up the coast at the right time to get us in the sweet spot. The lack of any eastern trough in combination with our being on the backside of an Atlantic trough is why the storms do not make the turn and head straight out to sea. Having the North Atlantic trough makes it more difficult for us to get that eastern trough as well. WX/PT More turds in the punchbowl for us having any kind of threat? Say it ain’t so! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted Monday at 02:01 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:01 PM The 06Z euro is pretty much what I anticipated this storm would do which is just slide out and maybe not even be a major threat for Richmond or Raleigh. But a high percentage of the ensembles at least still want to have this come up the coast 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted Monday at 03:22 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:22 PM 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: The 06Z euro is pretty much what I anticipated this storm would do which is just slide out and maybe not even be a major threat for Richmond or Raleigh. But a high percentage of the ensembles at least still want to have this come up the coast Tomorrow we will know despite what todays runs show, though we could whiff all the rest of the way since the runs last night. 18z yesterday - like I said, is probably the last run with a coastal we see. I’m not out yet, but within the next 28 hrs I’ll know one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Monday at 03:59 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:59 PM GFS is phasing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted Monday at 04:08 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:08 PM 12z GFS bring the phase back. Pretty binary y/n with this event. Weenie porn run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted Monday at 04:10 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:10 PM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted Monday at 04:13 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:13 PM Please make it happen. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted Monday at 04:13 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:13 PM what a joke from run to run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Monday at 04:14 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:14 PM Great start to 12z 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted Monday at 04:14 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:14 PM 4 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Please God let this happen 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted Monday at 04:15 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:15 PM Just now, winterwarlock said: what a joke from run to run It's been there for a few runs now 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted Monday at 04:15 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:15 PM 5 minutes ago, NittanyWx said: 12z GFS bring the phase back. Pretty binary y/n with this event. Weenie porn run. Model whiplash advisory in effect. Buckle up to prevent injury. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted Monday at 04:16 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:16 PM 1 minute ago, winterwarlock said: what a joke from run to run Even for the op GFS this is insane run to run jumps. I’ve honestly never seen anything like it. Let’s see if that has GEFS support 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Monday at 04:17 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:17 PM 3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Please make it happen. That would be….. nice. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Monday at 04:21 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:21 PM Cmc looks so much better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Monday at 04:23 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:23 PM Just now, MJO812 said: Cmc looks so much better Light snow but very close to much bigger. We're back to where we were yesterday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted Monday at 04:23 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:23 PM Congratulations you NYC weenies… if the deal is you get 30 and I get 20, I sign on the dotted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Monday at 04:29 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:29 PM 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc looks so much better Yup. I’ll sign for that as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Monday at 04:30 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:30 PM Wait til the ukie shows snow in Tallahassee 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted Monday at 04:32 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:32 PM We need the Euro to come on board. Don’t necessarily need to see what the GFS is showing, but marked improvements would make the snow weenies happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Monday at 04:35 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:35 PM GEFS looks better too 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted Monday at 04:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:39 PM 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yup. I’ll sign for that as well The key seems to be how fast the Northern Stream UL closes off. The GFS is the most aggressive so it allows a quicker phase. The CMC still has an open wave near the Upper Plains at the same time and isn’t quite as phased. It may come down to a tiny sampling issue as to which model is correct. Probably the closest to something decent we have seen in quite some time. Anything to slow that NS down and close it off quicker in this pattern would be greatly appreciated. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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