Stormlover74 Posted Friday at 02:56 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:56 PM 8 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said: Definitely disagree. I want YUGE snows. I enjoy using my snowblower and driving my quad in deep snows. Plus I got a plow this year and want to try it out. . Yes this dusting to an inch crap is getting old. I don't need 2 feet but a few plowable storms would be nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Friday at 02:56 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:56 PM 1 minute ago, North and West said: I have to think it’s because it’s showing you what you want to see, just like other solutions show other people what they want to see, so it reinforces their own biases. Just like a slanted news source or radio station for other topics, people love having preconceived notions reinforced. It’s marketing 101. . The problem is models are based on mathematics not marketing, so they should be objective.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Friday at 02:57 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:57 PM 9 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said: Definitely disagree. I want YUGE snows. I enjoy using my snowblower and driving my quad in deep snows. Plus I got a plow this year and want to try it out. . You'll probably get them even when the weather gets a little warmer, those plowable snows are far more common where you live than they are down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted Friday at 02:57 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:57 PM The problem is models are based on mathematics not marketing, so they should be objective....But they’re then read by humans with biases, searching for what they want to find.. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted Friday at 02:59 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:59 PM 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Yes this dusting to an inch crap is getting old. I don't need 2 feet but a few plowable storms would be nice Yeah we need a bigger storm soon or this will start to get annoying. It still is much better than getting nothing though. It appears that we still have a shot at getting an inch early tomorrow morning. Latest NAM went a little south, but 12z HRRR gives our area close to an inch. Hopefully we can pull off an inch rather than just a dusting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted Friday at 03:35 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:35 PM 38 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Yes this dusting to an inch crap is getting old. I don't need 2 feet but a few plowable storms would be nice we had plenty of those in the 80s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Friday at 03:37 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:37 PM 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: we had plenty of those in the 80s Yep 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EWR757 Posted Friday at 03:42 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:42 PM 49 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: The problem is models are based on mathematics not marketing, so they should be objective.... They are objective. The humans that read them are not. https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/confirmation-bias Expand your toolbox (diversify) and have multiple sources. Give less weight to those sources that tend to be statisitically unreliable (GFS, NAM) and more weight to those that are more reliable (ECMWF, Ensembles, New ML models). “If the only tool you have is a hammer, you tend to see every problem as a nail.” 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted Friday at 03:52 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:52 PM 44 minutes ago, North and West said: But they’re then read by humans with biases, searching for what they want to find. . Cherry picking data. Exactly. Plus the fact that was a huge outlier type event got all our attention. I wrote a post about how perhaps looking at things from the oppositional point of view and see what it looks like as a way to clear the mind. I.e. review the models with the idea you'd like to see cold and dry in this case. If you did that perhaps you would have strong conviction the storm was not likely at all and the models were on your side, cut and dry. It would be like 'oh ok. its cold and dry period move on.' The peeps on here who like cold and dry or warm - this does not vindicate them nor validate their biases. DT always used to ask "what could go wrong" in his weenie storm forecasts to help keep things somewhat in perspective. I don't follow him anymore at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Friday at 03:55 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:55 PM 54 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yeah we need a bigger storm soon or this will start to get annoying. It still is much better than getting nothing though. It appears that we still have a shot at getting an inch early tomorrow morning. Latest NAM went a little south, but 12z HRRR gives our area close to an inch. Hopefully we can pull off an inch rather than just a dusting. How do you have this giant slug of moisture that covers almost the entire nation north to south shrink so quickly? we shouldn't even need a coastal to get snow here, that northern storm should be enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Friday at 03:55 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:55 PM 13 minutes ago, EWR757 said: They are objective. The humans that read them are not. https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/confirmation-bias Expand your toolbox (diversify) and have multiple sources. Give less weight to those sources that tend to be statisitically unreliable (GFS, NAM) and more weight to those that are more reliable (ECMWF, Ensembles, New ML models). “If the only tool you have is a hammer, you tend to see every problem as a nail.” I wish they'd update our *American* models to make them more reliable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted Friday at 04:15 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:15 PM Cherry picking data. Exactly. Plus the fact that was a huge outlier type event got all our attention. I wrote a post about how perhaps looking at things from the oppositional point of view and see what it looks like as a way to clear the mind. I.e. review the models with the idea you'd like to see cold and dry in this case. If you did that perhaps you would have strong conviction the storm was not likely at all and the models were on your side, cut and dry. It would be like 'oh ok. its cold and dry period move on.' The peeps on here who like cold and dry or warm - this does not vindicate them nor validate their biases. DT always used to ask "what could go wrong" in his weenie storm forecasts to help keep things somewhat in perspective. I don't follow him anymore at all. Right. I’m not a meteorologist or scientist or engineer, but even in the most logic-driven occupations, people - who may not want to admit it - are driven by emotion and responses that they hope to find. Just take a look at Covid five years on… many, many aspects of it were ideas driven by emotion or solutions that were hoped to work, and reasonings made verboten because they did not conform.People don’t like to admit they’re wrong, or don’t like to concede a previous viewpoint could be wrong, or someone they disagree with or dislike had a valid point.It’s a good point you make about just saying, what could go wrong? You want Solution A to occur, but what could make it become B or C? It’s not a character issue, just a valid question.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Friday at 05:28 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:28 PM Sigh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted Friday at 05:36 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:36 PM 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Sigh That's a good bump up by the Euro. Hopefully Euro and HRRR are correct about our area getting an inch. It sucks that we aren't getting any bigger snowstorms, but at least we're getting several light events during the cold pattern. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Friday at 05:37 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:37 PM 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Sigh Not bad 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Friday at 05:39 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:39 PM 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Not bad Best euro run in a while 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted Friday at 05:40 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:40 PM 1 hour ago, EWR757 said: They are objective. The humans that read them are not. https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/confirmation-bias Expand your toolbox (diversify) and have multiple sources. Give less weight to those sources that tend to be statisitically unreliable (GFS, NAM) and more weight to those that are more reliable (ECMWF, Ensembles, New ML models). “If the only tool you have is a hammer, you tend to see every problem as a nail.” The 'new ML models' are worse in the d5+ range than the EC Ens. Many are even worse than the GFS Ens. We have yet to see a model consistently beat the EC Ens despite tricky marketing gimmicks and selective verification to the contrary. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted Friday at 05:48 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:48 PM 7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Best euro run in a while Yeah Euro had been the model showing almost nothing for many runs. Now that it's showing this, I'm more confident that we won't get just a dusting. Looks like a half inch to an inch. Hopefully we'll get an inch like we did on Monday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Friday at 05:49 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:49 PM 12 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: That's a good bump up by the Euro. Hopefully Euro and HRRR are correct about our area getting an inch. It sucks that we aren't getting any bigger snowstorms, but at least we're getting several light events during the cold pattern. If we got a 1-2 inch event every week, most would be happy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted Friday at 05:54 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:54 PM 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: If we got a 1-2 inch event every week, most would be happy. Remind me not to nominate you for Director of Happiness. 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Friday at 06:08 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:08 PM 30 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Not bad I believe the Euro picked up on the last light snow event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted Friday at 06:31 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:31 PM 22 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I believe the Euro picked up on the last light snow event. Some model picked up on the last storm because the forecast was exact. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted Friday at 06:32 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:32 PM 52 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Best euro run in a while While the main storm appears to remain way south of our area, there is a large snow shield all the way up to Ohio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Friday at 06:33 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:33 PM Just now, Dark Star said: While the main storm appears to remain way south of our area, there is a large snow shield all the way up to Ohio? Most of the models had this but weaken it considerably east of the mountains. Maybe it holds together better than expectes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted Friday at 06:34 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:34 PM Just now, Stormlover74 said: Most of the models had this but weaken it considerably east of the mountains. Maybe it holds together better than expectes It is being "eaten up" by the dry air as we speak. Hopefully some of it finds its way here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Friday at 06:34 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:34 PM HRRR 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Friday at 06:35 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:35 PM Just now, Dark Star said: It is being "eaten up" by the dry air as we speak. Hopefully some of it finds its way here... It does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Friday at 07:38 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:38 PM 1 hour ago, Dark Star said: While the main storm appears to remain way south of our area, there is a large snow shield all the way up to Ohio? there is a large snow shield right now all the way up to Detroit. Where is that large snow shield all going to disappear to I wonder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted Friday at 07:43 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:43 PM 3 hours ago, North and West said: Right. I’m not a meteorologist or scientist or engineer, but even in the most logic-driven occupations, people - who may not want to admit it - are driven by emotion and responses that they hope to find. Just take a look at Covid five years on… many, many aspects of it were ideas driven by emotion or solutions that were hoped to work, and reasonings made verboten because they did not conform. People don’t like to admit they’re wrong, or don’t like to concede a previous viewpoint could be wrong, or someone they disagree with or dislike had a valid point. It’s a good point you make about just saying, what could go wrong? You want Solution A to occur, but what could make it become B or C? It’s not a character issue, just a valid question. . Well said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted Friday at 09:50 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:50 PM Crazy thing is looking at the radar you would think we would be getting smoked! Oh well! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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