Jan 11th-12th Super Bomb or Super Bummed?

[jm1220]

I’m deleting the bickering crap. Grow up. 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Could be another nice hit for those who got hit from the last one. Maybe not DC so much but east of there in DE. 

at this rate Delaware will have more snow than either NYC or BOS this season.

[MJO812]

Nam south

Not shocking 

[winterwx21]

19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nam south

Not shocking 

Both Nam models didn't look bad to me. They actually have some higher totals in northern NJ with some spots 1 to 2 inches. HRRR not as impressed with closer to a half inch for a lot of the area, but it's still very early for that model.

I think overall the model trends are pretty good. Timing is good too with late night into early morning, and snow ratios look pretty good. We have a decent chance to get an inch. It looks pretty similar to Monday's event. 

Hopefully we'll get a bigger storm later in the month, but I'm glad we continue to nickel and dime our way to near normal snowfall with these light events during this cold pattern. 

[MJO812]

19 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Both Nam models didn't look bad to me. They actually have some higher totals in northern NJ with some spots 1 to 2 inches. HRRR not as impressed with closer to a half inch for a lot of the area, but it's still very early for that model.

I think overall the model trends are pretty good. Timing is good too with late night into early morning, and snow ratios look pretty good. We have a decent chance to get an inch. It looks pretty similar to Monday's event. 

Hopefully we'll get a bigger storm later in the month, but I'm glad we continue to nickel and dime our way to near normal snowfall with these light events during this cold pattern. 

I would be fine with 1 inch

[MJO812]

[wdrag]

12z-18 EC, HRRR, RGEM are all down on much snow LI and surroundings, generally near 1/2" or less. 21z RAP and 18 NAM beefier. We know what to root for and check again tomorrow morning.  In the meantime, enjoy your family.  As many have said... its gonna do what it wants and we just cant let the good life with family and friends pass us by. 

 

Yes my dog was walked and he was at brisk pace. 

 

[NorthShoreWx]

3 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Both Nam models didn't look bad to me. They actually have some higher totals in northern NJ with some spots 1 to 2 inches. HRRR not as impressed with closer to a half inch for a lot of the area, but it's still very early for that model.

I think overall the model trends are pretty good. Timing is good too with late night into early morning, and snow ratios look pretty good. We have a decent chance to get an inch. It looks pretty similar to Monday's event. 

Hopefully we'll get a bigger storm later in the month, but I'm glad we continue to nickel and dime our way to near normal snowfall with these light events during this cold pattern. 

Nickels and dimes would be good, but these have been pennies.

[WestBabylonWeather]

It is frustrating to have the first below normal/average winter in many many years only for it to snow in Arkansas. But it is what it is can’t do anything about it. But a 1-3” would be nice lol

[jm1220]

52 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

It is frustrating to have the first below normal/average winter in many many years only for it to snow in Arkansas. But it is what it is can’t do anything about it. But a 1-3” would be nice lol

Would be. Unfortunately that hope’s running on fumes too. 

[North and West]

It is frustrating to have the first below normal/average winter in many many years only for it to snow in Arkansas. But it is what it is can’t do anything about it. But a 1-3” would be nice lol

So it goes


.

[wishcast_hater]

SUPER BUST

[MJO812]

Whatever

I'm fine with this

[IrishRob17]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Whatever

I'm fine with this

Good because you don't have a choice. 

[MJO812]

Just now, IrishRob17 said:

Good because you don't have a choice. 

Nam is dustings to an inch

[Snowlover11]

28 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nam is dustings to an inch

wash rinse repeat.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, wishcast_hater said:

SUPER BUST

Been dead for days, arguably was never alive. GFS valiantly attempted CPR but patient long ago coded. 

[cleetussnow]

11 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Been dead for days, arguably was never alive. GFS valiantly attempted CPR but patient long ago coded. 

Looking back - why were we so taken in by one model’s solution?  Should have been easily discounted in hindsight.  I guess the pattern was good enough but no other model timed the phase.  Kind of feel like a sucker now.

[qg_omega]

13 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Looking back - why were we so taken in by one model’s solution?  Should have been easily discounted in hindsight.  I guess the pattern was good enough but no other model timed the phase.  Kind of feel like a sucker now.

No real people here bought the gfs besides the usual same people who are always wrong

[cleetussnow]

3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

No real people here bought the gfs besides the usual same people who are always wrong

You and snowman being the only real people.  Got it.  

[Stormlover74]

24 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Looking back - why were we so taken in by one model’s solution?  Should have been easily discounted in hindsight.  I guess the pattern was good enough but no other model timed the phase.  Kind of feel like a sucker now.

Only because it showed it 5 or 6 times it seemed like it might be on to something but yeah no other model ever showed anything close so the hope was for a minor to maybe moderate event. Now it's going to be a dusting to maybe an inch 

[jm1220]

26 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Looking back - why were we so taken in by one model’s solution?  Should have been easily discounted in hindsight.  I guess the pattern was good enough but no other model timed the phase.  Kind of feel like a sucker now.

There were signs in the ensembles that other models might catch on but none really jumped in, then the streams were clearly progged not to cooperate with the oncoming kicker and fast flow. Hopefully the northern stream trough is potent enough to give some of us up to an inch. Another fail. 

[winterwx21]

Tonight's GFS says we get close to an inch. I really wish we could get something even just slightly better like a 2 to 4 inch event, but to me an inch is a lot better than nothing so I continue to root for it. I'll take a snowy early Saturday morning with an inch on the ground. Hopefully it'll happen. Right now a half inch to 1 inch looks like a good call. Euro has been showing almost nothing, so hopefully it'll improve tonight.