Jan 11th-12th Super Bomb or Super Bummed?

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, cleetussnow said:

There can be no doubt now.  Lock this thread and move on

I'd wait until the frameable 0Z/10 NAM run comes out Thursday evening and then cancel.  I've already ordered a nice frame.  

[Nibor]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

The aim was to have some fun tracking a system with a high ceiling even if it wasn't extremely likely.  A lot of the subforum hasn't had a big storm in a few years.  I'm not really sure why there's an issue with that since this is a weather forum.  The title of the thread was basically talking about how we could have a bomb or we could be disappointed which was supported by the ensembles.  I will be taking a step back and not be starting any more threads for the good of science. 

I lit some candles and arranged a bunch of amethyst like Stonehenge before eating an eighth of mushrooms and yelling at the moon for this to work out. Sadly Earths chakras weren't in order. Crystal mommy energy will be placed on the backburner for now.

[RU848789]

Euro dead!  GFS dead!  CMC dead!  UK dead!  ICON dead!  JMA dead!  That unpronounceable Russian model dead!  Niedermeyer dead!  But the end of the NAM showed promise and the HRRR at 48 showed good trends aloft, so are we gonna give up?  Did we give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?  No!

 

[NorthShoreWx]

15 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Euro dead!  GFS dead!  CMC dead!  UK dead!  ICON dead!  JMA dead!  That unpronounceable Russian model dead!  Niedermeyer dead!  But the end of the NAM showed promise and the HRRR at 48 showed good trends aloft, so are we gonna give up?  Did we give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?  No!

 

I think this situation absolutely requires a really futile and stupid gesture be done on somebody's part.

[RU848789]

3 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I think this situation absolutely requires a really futile and stupid gesture be done on somebody's part.

And we're just the guys to do it.  

[winterwx21]

Model runs tonight were not good. If they're right we're looking at just a coating, but there's still plenty of time. The chance of getting a moderate event has gone way down, but we can still bump this back up to a 1 to 2 inch event Saturday morning with the trough moving through. That would be nice. Hopefully the models tomorrow will beef it back up a bit. I'm not giving up. 

[wdrag]

2 hours ago, Rjay said:

The aim was to have some fun tracking a system with a high ceiling even if it wasn't extremely likely.  A lot of the subforum hasn't had a big storm in a few years.  I'm not really sure why there's an issue with that since this is a weather forum.  The title of the thread was basically talking about how we could have a bomb or we could be disappointed which was supported by the ensembles.  I will be taking a step back and not be starting any more threads for the good of science. 

I kind of figured... the Mt Holly post tipped me, especially Mt Holly.  I probably wouldn't have said anything. Moving forward. 

[Albedoman]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

I kind of figured... the Mt Holly post tipped me, especially Mt Holly.  I probably wouldn't have said anything. Moving forward. 

too many posters have not experienced the late 60's weather patterns with the lack of a decent winter storm pattern, no internet and modelogy with  six hour runs.. Nothing surprises me the last 3-5 years with the extremes with these storm events as well. All I can say is be patient.  

The title of the thread should have been "southern sliders or southern comfort - your choice|"  Good food with a good drink can create an atmosphere which is needed in this confluence dominating pattern for the youngsters.

[wdrag]

38 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

too many posters have not experienced the late 60's weather patterns with the lack of a decent winter storm pattern, no internet and modelogy with  six hour runs.. Nothing surprises me the last 3-5 years with the extremes with these storm events as well. All I can say is be patient.  

The title of the thread should have been "southern sliders or southern comfort - your choice|"  Good food with a good drink can create an atmosphere which is needed in this confluence dominating pattern for the youngsters.

Heading to Atlanta soon. I like it.  Thread works... and I'm not down on the moderator - just everything these days is excesses.  I think when we get another 2-3 foot snowstorm,  folks will get sick of it, after the exhausting anticipation  I'll take 2-8" repeat storms in a 3 week period any day...  Let's move forward and enjoy whatever snow occurs Saturday morning. 

 

I saw CP on TV and the snow Monday looked quite nice. 

[wdrag]

A small snow event seems likely Saturday morning-midday the 11th with dustings to possibly at worst 3 inches but am not playing up a major event. Still travel will be slowed in some areas. Maybe the most favored area for uncertain snowfall of 1-3" is the immediate coast of NJ/LI/CT. Treated roads melt but timing of occurrence will have a bearing on the hazard potential, especially with ice cold surfaces preceding this event. Attached WSSI-P graphic for MINOR impact Friday afternoon-Saturday morning.  Legend for probs.  Red is 60% chance.

[North and West]

Question for @MJO812:  You are visited by a genie who offers you back to back 2025 and 2026 Mets World Series championships, but only mild winter rainstorms for 8 consecutive years, OR a 50" blizzard with a two month snowpack, but Mets losing seasons for 8 straight years.  Which do you choose?
 

Mets all day.


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[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, Rjay said:

The aim was to have some fun tracking a system with a high ceiling even if it wasn't extremely likely.  A lot of the subforum hasn't had a big storm in a few years.  I'm not really sure why there's an issue with that since this is a weather forum.  The title of the thread was basically talking about how we could have a bomb or we could be disappointed which was supported by the ensembles.  I will be taking a step back and not be starting any more threads for the good of science. 

Don't do that, simulated snow is fun too.  It's actually more fun to track something even if it never happens than the feeling you get after an actual snowfall ends.

I think thats what the Debbie Downers dont understand, sometimes and in some winters we dont even care if it actually snows as long as we can track a possibility on the models.  It's like reading a good suspense novel or watching a suspenseful movie, you know it's not true, but who cares? The reading or watching is what makes it fun!

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Yup, and Philly

we have people in southern CT who have much less snowfall than Central Park does

[MJO812]

Rip

[MJO812]

10 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Exactly 

Way too many people throwing in the towel early 

It's over 

10 hours ago, wishcast_hater said:

You CAN’T or WON’T?


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I can't 

7 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Question for @MJO812:  You are visited by a genie who offers you back to back 2025 and 2026 Mets World Series championships, but only mild winter rainstorms for 8 consecutive years, OR a 50" blizzard with a two month snowpack, but Mets losing seasons for 8 straight years.  Which do you choose?

 

Mets all day

[Irish]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Rip

That the run from 12z on January 6th. I was happy with that one. 

[North and West]

That the run from 12z on January 6th. I was happy with that one. 

It’s like that one girl you saw once and then never again.




.

[WestBabylonWeather]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Rip

Printing this run and shooting it when I go upstate this spring 

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's over 

I can't 

Mets all day

Earthlight buckle up pattern? Cool? 

[guinness77]

51 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Rip

Isn’t the one bit of rain there right over @Rjay’s area? Must be the penance for starting this thread 

[WestBabylonWeather]

There was a potential storm on the models just 5 days out. Nothing wrong with starting a thread for that at the peak of winter on a forum of enthusiasts. 

[allgame830]

3 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

There was a potential storm on the models just 5 days out. Nothing wrong with starting a thread for that at the peak of winter on a forum of enthusiasts. 

100% agreed! Kinda sad some are getting on @Rjay case about starting the thread even in the NE forum for @Typhoon Tip starting the thread there. Doesn’t make sense to me but whatever. 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

100% agreed! Kinda sad some are getting on @Rjay case about starting the thread even in the NE forum for @Typhoon Tip starting the thread there. Doesn’t make sense to me but whatever. 

They need to understand that 90% of the fun is the anticipation and tracking on the models.

Meteorology is a --VERY INEXACT SCIENCE--   We know it probably won't work out but who cares? We also know Santa Claus doesn't exist but we still enjoy Christmas!

Let people have their fun without being a wet sock guys.

 

[guinness77]

lol, can’t make a joke anymore? 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, guinness77 said:

lol, can’t make a joke anymore? 

I wasn't talking about you I was talking about the debbie downers who like to rain on everyone's parade or give out sausages for optimistic posts.

 

[Dark Star]

3 hours ago, North and West said:

Mets all day.


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I'll take the blizzard and snow pack.  I'm used to the Mets losing.  

[Mikeymac5306]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Rip

 

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

we have people in southern CT who have much less snowfall than Central Park does

Yep I'm at 2 inches now.

[EastonSN+]

It needed a perfect phase. Never good sign when the trough axis is over your head.

[North and West]

I'll take the blizzard and snow pack.  I'm used to the Mets losing.  

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