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Jan 11th-12th Super Bomb or Super Bummed?

Rjay

By Rjay,
in New York City Metro

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Wxoutlooksblog

Wxoutlooksblog

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Looking good with your call

I think the floor is a lot lower than the ceiling is high at this point. We'll see if it amounts to more than yesterday. It could be 1-3"/2-4", remote chance of up to 5", better chance of a coating to an inch, or almost nothing at all. It's going to move quickly probably in Friday night late and out by Saturday afternoon. We have to slow this jet stream down significantly to allow a trough to dig and to get a major storm up here. 

WX/PT

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brooklynwx99
brooklynwx99

if you guys go from worrying from it being OTS to worrying about rain i swear to god

rygar
rygar

Nothing like coming back to the thread, getting excited about the # of new comments, only to find out its real estate related...

Rjay
Rjay

Need to change things up around here for some good luck.  Here's an early thread to discuss this threat.  Is it coming?  I'm sure you'll all be surprised that Metsfan says yes and Snowman says no.  Wh

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I think the floor is a lot lower than the ceiling is high at this point. We'll see if it amounts to more than yesterday. It could be 1-3"/2-4", remote chance of up to 5", better chance of a coating to an inch, or almost nothing at all. It's going to move quickly probably in Friday night late and out by Saturday afternoon. We have to slow this jet stream down significantly to allow a trough to dig and to get a major storm up here. 

WX/PT

The big runs that the gfs showed at the storm all day Saturday into Sunday. 

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allgame830

allgame830

Posted
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4 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I think the floor is a lot lower than the ceiling is high at this point. We'll see if it amounts to more than yesterday. It could be 1-3"/2-4", remote chance of up to 5", better chance of a coating to an inch, or almost nothing at all. It's going to move quickly probably in Friday night late and out by Saturday afternoon. We have to slow this jet stream down significantly to allow a trough to dig and to get a major storm up here. 

WX/PT

Ok now what would slow this jet down enough hypothetical to allow this storm to come up here?

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, allgame830 said:

Ok now what would slow this jet down enough hypothetical to allow this storm to come up here?

The waters off Japan cooling down significantly. That’s a bit simplistic but that issue arose in 2018 and hasn’t really relented since, and ever since that marine heatwave started, the Pacific jet has been supercharged. Bluewave has posted many times about it. 

As for this threat, there’s still some hope for a light 1-3” event but hope for a heavier event if no major change tonight gets the plug pulled. The N and S streams won’t cooperate and the pattern is too fast with a kicker right behind it to allow any real amplification before it’s booted out sea. The vigorous trough coming through is where our hope really lies for the snow event, not the coastal storm. 

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allgame830

allgame830

Posted
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3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The waters off Japan cooling down significantly. That’s a bit simplistic but that issue arose in 2018 and hasn’t really relented since, and ever since that marine heatwave started, the Pacific jet has been supercharged. Bluewave has posted many times about it. 

As for this threat, there’s still some hope for a light 1-3” event but hope for a heavier event if no major change tonight gets the plug pulled. The N and S streams won’t cooperate and the pattern is too fast with a kicker right behind it to allow any real amplification before it’s booted out sea. The vigorous trough coming through is where our hope really lies for the snow event, not the coastal storm. 

Thanks for the answer!

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Rjay

Rjay

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3 hours ago, wdrag said:

Hey guys and gals, young and old.  I was disappointed in our thread headline and the NWS post you just shared (was it real?). If that PHI post was real, that prompted me to make this comment.

Sure I wanted to start the thread but not with a galvanizing headline and if that PHI post is/was real... they're joining the fray of juicing interest.  Nothing has changed since 20 years ago when I was juicing interest.  Ensembles have tempered my enthusiasm in recent years. 

Free speech also comes with controlled responsibility to not trigger excessive responses-the op models already do that.  

So maybe I am misunderstanding the purpose of our posts---toward a reasonable outcome of the reality with some effort to add a couple of supporting graphics-text outcomes.

There is always a range of possibilities but our community needs to keep it within reason. 

I know I'm in trouble with some of our posters-moderators but I had speak up for what I think is best for our science. 

Fingers crossed that you all get the snow you want to see these next few winters. 

 

The aim was to have some fun tracking a system with a high ceiling even if it wasn't extremely likely.  A lot of the subforum hasn't had a big storm in a few years.  I'm not really sure why there's an issue with that since this is a weather forum.  The title of the thread was basically talking about how we could have a bomb or we could be disappointed which was supported by the ensembles.  I will be taking a step back and not be starting any more threads for the good of science. 

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Rjay said:

The aim was to have some fun tracking a system with a high ceiling even if it wasn't extremely likely.  A lot of the subforum hasn't had a big storm in a few years.  I'm not really sure why there's an issue with that since this is a weather forum.  The title of the thread was basically talking about how we could have a bomb or we could be disappointed which was supported by the ensembles.  I will be taking a step back and not be starting any more threads for the good of science. 

I’ll name the threads going forward. What could go wrong?

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coastalplainsnowman

coastalplainsnowman

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, milleand said:

How about if everyone on here somehow gets 6+ inches this weekend, the name goes back. #miracleMets

Question for @MJO812:  You are visited by a genie who offers you back to back 2025 and 2026 Mets World Series championships, but only mild winter rainstorms for 8 consecutive years, OR a 50" blizzard with a two month snowpack, but Mets losing seasons for 8 straight years.  Which do you choose?

 

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Franklin0529

Franklin0529

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Question for @MJO812:  You are visited by a genie who offers you back to back 2025 and 2026 Mets World Series championships, but only mild winter rainstorms for 8 consecutive years, OR a 50" blizzard with a two month snowpack, but Mets losing seasons for 8 straight years.  Which do you choose?

 

World series 

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allgame830

allgame830

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Question for @MJO812:  You are visited by a genie who offers you back to back 2025 and 2026 Mets World Series championships, but only mild winter rainstorms for 8 consecutive years, OR a 50" blizzard with a two month snowpack, but Mets losing seasons for 8 straight years.  Which do you choose?

 

I’d go with 50” blizzard since I’m a Yanks fan :)

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Irish

Irish

Posted
Posted
Just now, RU848789 said:

NAM actually has heavier precip in our area and just west of here near the end of its run than the 18Z Euro or 0Z GFS do.  I know it's the NAM at 78-84 hours, but it's something.  Maybe.  

I love the hope you hold onto and I'm with ya. I'll hold out as late as possible. 

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Irish said:

I love the hope you hold onto and I'm with ya. I'll hold out as late as possible. 

If we were 36-48 hours out, I'd be watching TV, lol, but we're still 84 hours out when modest to even significant changes are possible.  Not that I'm counting on them, but that's the state of NWP at this time, even with improved models.  

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