Jan 11th-12th Super Bomb or Super Bummed?

[RU848789]

Liked this...

https://x.com/MikeMasco/status/1876718043654697202

https://x.com/i/status/1876718043654697202

[dseagull]

4 hours ago, TJW014 said:

Lots of old houses along Barnegat Bay. Many built in the late 1800s - Pre WW2

My home was built in 1909. Rock wool "insulation" (if you want to call it that) on the first floor. Nothing on the second floor. 

Cold winter nights in the teens it'll be in the 50s inside. Wood stove heats up downstairs, baseboard upstairs

In the summertime, upstairs never drops below 80 degrees, even with window A/C. 

I have regrets in life, but my home and location are not on the list.  Ive redone my home to where it is exactly what I dreamt of, but there's always more work to be done.   The history here on the actual Bayfront is second to none in the state, and I'm able to walk outside on two levels of my home and look at my "bay-yard."

 

All of that aside, I should have done a complete gut of the interior secondary walls when I decided to remodel early on.  Financially, that wasn't in the cards earlier in life.  And now, I'm perfectly content to burn extra wood or pay for some extra NG.

 

If you're lucky enough to live on the water, you're lucky enough...

 

If you're lucky enough to "work" on the water 300+ days a year, you're living in heaven on earth.   

Bring on the next Nor'easter... nothing like watching storms from here. 

[NorthShoreWx]

3 hours ago, RU848789 said:

This is real from the NWS and not a joke.  Told them I thought the 40" part in the graphic was irresponsible. The text in the post was fine...

"We've been getting a lot of questions about the potential weekend winter storm. To answer those questions, there is about a 50-60% chance of snow. That's all we know. We do NOT know how much snow we'll be getting yet. The storm is still 4 days away, and a lot can change.

Could we get significant amounts? Sure, but there's still a chance we end up getting insignificant amounts. Greatest threat is Friday night and Saturday morning. Keep an eye on the forecast in the coming days for more information!"

https://www.facebook.com/NWSMountHolly/posts/pfbid0zJeNRScVzhfRH1f6CD46octVXdtw865K7EQpwCF7S3PTLumC4wxag5sC7xpMia3el

 

They should have said 100" then the attempt at expressing humor and maybe a wee bit of frustration would have been more obvious.  I'm ok with their post.

[David-LI]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

GFS is a Little closer. I wonder why the precip shield is so tight. 

upper level features don't look good and no proper phasing.

[psv88]

It’s over. Maybe we get some snow showers. Anyone clinging to this is delusional 

[Allsnow]

18z euro weak and out to sea. Dusting at best for the area. 
 

 

[Stormlover74]

Lock it up

[North and West]

Approaching 1/15 which is halfway point of met winter, definitely trending towards the fail column. Hey, it's in good company with 18-19, 19-20, 22-23, 23-24. Couldn't care less that there are lots of windy dry cold days. The T-storm complexes on New Years Eve and cutters will always show up when the weather turns warm again. 

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[allgame830]

38 minutes ago, psv88 said:

It’s over. Maybe we get some snow showers. Anyone clinging to this is delusional 

Didn’t realize it only being Tuesday and the storm would be Saturday is delusional…. Everything isn’t fully sampled until 12z tomorrow. 
 

im sure you said the same thing 2 days prior to 2010 as well as 1996. 

[RU848789]

26 minutes ago, psv88 said:

It’s over. Maybe we get some snow showers. Anyone clinging to this is delusional 

Over the top statement almost 4 days out.  Getting a minor to moderate snowfall is certainly still possible - we're still even outside the range of the NAM/RGEM and we've seen major changes from this point to an event many times in the past. At about this same point for the 1/6 storm, i.e., 18Z on Thursday about 90 hours before the start of precip, we were celebrating the moves north of the GFS, Euro and ICON which along with decent snows for the CMC/UK made it look like we could get 2-4/3-5" for CNJ/NNJ/NYC. 

We all know how that went south fairly quickly with 0Z showing big moves south by the UK/Euro and they really never wavered much from having maybe an inch for our area until the storm, while the other models slowly moved towards them somewhat.  The point being that modest to significant changes can still occur and I don't think anyone can predict with high confidence whether those moves will occur this time and if they do, what direction.  

 

[TriPol]

Welp, there's always February...

[sussexcountyobs]

All the forecasts that I look at for my area. NWS, Accuweather, Wunderground. Are C-1" here as of now. I'll see what Bobby from EPAWA says tomorrow and Thursday morning. I go with his forecast the most. Then Joe & Joe.

[wishcast_hater]

All the forecasts that I look at for my area. NWS, Accuweather, Wunderground. Are C-1" here as of now. I'll see what Bobby from EPAWA says tomorrow and Thursday morning. I go with his forecast the most. Then Joe & Joe.

That makes sense at this junction but again we are days away and things could trend northward. MetsFan is my inspiration.


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[RU848789]

3 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

All the forecasts that I look at for my area. NWS, Accuweather, Wunderground. Are C-1" here as of now. I'll see what Bobby from EPAWA says tomorrow and Thursday morning. I go with his forecast the most. Then Joe & Joe.

Dan Zarrow is decent for the NJ area and after the 12Z models came out he has a 20% chance of a bomb (6-24"), a 60% chance of light snow (1-4") and a 20% chance of nada (which is almost exactly what I said earlier). The NWS was also much more bullish on a light to moderate event than they were this morning, as per today's 4 pm discussion.  But unless 0Z moves back towards 12Z, my guess is most will, rightly, back down a bit on snowfall forecasts/likelihood for our area based on 18Z and a perhaps similar to 18Z suite at 0Z and we might then be in the same boat we were in for this past event for areas N of 276/195, i.e., hoping for 1-2" of snow at best.  Might happen.  

https://nj1015.com/nj-stays-frozen-and-windy-3-possible-scenarios-for-weekend-storm/

[sussexcountyobs]

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

Dan Zarrow is decent for the NJ area and after the 12Z models came out he has a 20% chance of a bomb (6-24"), a 60% chance of light snow (1-4") and a 20% chance of nada (which is almost exactly what I said earlier). The NWS was also much more bullish on a light to moderate event than they were this morning, as per today's 4 pm discussion.  But unless 0Z moves back towards 12Z, my guess is most will, rightly, back down a bit on snowfall forecasts/likelihood for our area based on 18Z and a perhaps similar to 18Z suite at 0Z and we might then be in the same boat we were in for this past event for areas N of 276/195, i.e., hoping for 1-2" of snow at best.  Might happen.  

https://nj1015.com/nj-stays-frozen-and-windy-3-possible-scenarios-for-weekend-storm/

Never heard of Dan Zarrow. Will check it out.

[wdrag]

Hey guys and gals, young and old.  I was disappointed in our thread headline and the NWS post you just shared (was it real?). If that PHI post was real, that prompted me to make this comment.

Sure I wanted to start the thread but not with a galvanizing headline and if that PHI post is/was real... they're joining the fray of juicing interest.  Nothing has changed since 20 years ago when I was juicing interest.  Ensembles have tempered my enthusiasm in recent years. 

Free speech also comes with controlled responsibility to not trigger excessive responses-the op models already do that.  

So maybe I am misunderstanding the purpose of our posts---toward a reasonable outcome of the reality with some effort to add a couple of supporting graphics-text outcomes.

There is always a range of possibilities but our community needs to keep it within reason. 

I know I'm in trouble with some of our posters-moderators but I had speak up for what I think is best for our science. 

Fingers crossed that you all get the snow you want to see these next few winters. 

 

[WestBabylonWeather]

I’ve seen this song and dance so many times. The hope the storm will happen and the people saying it’s over. Sometimes it happens and sometimes it doesn’t. It’s too early to tell whether or not it will happen. It’s like people don’t learn from the same song and dance, it’s crazy to watch every single time. 
 

[sussexcountyobs]

7 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

That makes sense at this junction but again we are days away and things could trend northward. MetsFan is my inspiration.


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Yup. Anthony is great. He never, ever gives up hope. He needs to change his name back to MetsFanforLife. We had better luck.

[RU848789]

15 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Hey guys and gals, young and old.  I was disappointed in our thread headline and the NWS post you just shared (was it real?). If that PHI post was real, that prompted me to make this comment.

Sure I wanted to start the thread but not with a galvanizing headline and if that PHI post is/was real... they're joining the fray of juicing interest.  Nothing has changed since 20 years ago when I was juicing interest.  Ensembles have tempered my enthusiasm in recent years. 

Free speech also comes with controlled responsibility to not trigger excessive responses-the op models already do that.  

So maybe I am misunderstanding the purpose of our posts---toward a reasonable outcome of the reality with some effort to add a couple of supporting graphics-text outcomes.

There is always a range of possibilities but our community needs to keep it within reason. 

I know I'm in trouble with some of our posters-moderators but I had speak up for what I think is best for our science. 

Fingers crossed that you all get the snow you want to see these next few winters. 

 

The 40" post was 100% real on the NWS-Philly FB page.  I said it was irresponsible on the page and some agreed and others thought I was being silly, but public safety isn't a joking matter IMO (and if they had clearly include smileys or a comment making clear it was a joke I wouldn't have cared, but they didn't).  They have since pulled the graphic from the FB page (you can even see that it was edited to remove a graphic), but kept the text there, which was fine.  

https://www.facebook.com/NWSMountHolly/posts/pfbid0zJeNRScVzhfRH1f6CD46octVXdtw865K7EQpwCF7S3PTLumC4wxag5sC7xpMia3el?comment_id=1113426140241143&reply_comment_id=1250860806202090&notif_id=1736278761590820&notif_t=comment_mention&ref=notif

[North and West]

I’ve seen this song and dance so many times. The hope the storm will happen and the people saying it’s over. Sometimes it happens and sometimes it doesn’t. It’s too early to tell whether or not it will happen. It’s like people don’t learn from the same song and dance, it’s crazy to watch every single time. 
 

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[North and West]

Yup. Anthony is great. He never, ever gives up hope. He needs to change his name back to MetsFanforLife. We had better luck.

I’m all for any Mets fan.


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[anthonyweather]

4 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

The 40" post was 100% real on the NWS-Philly FB page.  I said it was irresponsible on the page and some agreed and others thought I was being silly, but public safety isn't a joking matter IMO (and if they had clearly include smileys or a comment making clear it was a joke I wouldn't have cared, but they didn't).  They have since pulled the graphic from the FB page, but kept the text there, which was fine.  

https://www.facebook.com/NWSMountHolly/posts/pfbid0zJeNRScVzhfRH1f6CD46octVXdtw865K7EQpwCF7S3PTLumC4wxag5sC7xpMia3el?comment_id=1113426140241143&reply_comment_id=1250860806202090&notif_id=1736278761590820&notif_t=comment_mention&ref=notif

A NWS in the mid west did something similar a few days ago and was a hit. They tried it. They shouldn’t have took the image down either because a select few  cried about it. 
 

weather forecasting is a joke anymore because every body and their brother open a Facebook page and post OP runs. 
 

let them grow their fanbase a little bit organically with some laughs. 
 

 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, jdj5211 said:

That southern stream phase is literally like 6 hours off probably....a little quicker and we're back in business.  Not saying it will happen but it's still possible if you just believe

Exactly 

Way too many people throwing in the towel early 

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

A NWS in the mid west did something similar a few days ago and was a hit. They tried it. They shouldn’t have took the image down either because a select few  cried about it. 
 

weather forecasting is a joke anymore because every body and their brother open a Facebook page and post OP runs. 
 

let them grow their fanbase a little bit organically with some laughs. 
 

 

But if weather forecasting is a joke it's because of all the hype and the "Direct weather" types that hype everything and the average person doesn't understand  the difference between them and the NWS.

The professionals shouldn't be in the business of posting just to gain clicks or followers but to differentiate themselves from the amateurs

With that said I didn't see the post but I'm all for humor 

[dseagull]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

But if weather forecasting is a joke it's because of all the hype and the "Direct weather" types that hype everything and the average person doesn't understand  the difference between them and the NWS.

The professionals shouldn't be in the business of posting just to gain clicks or followers but to differentiate themselves from the amateurs

Government agencies have been using different mediums of media for decades now, unfortunately.  

Sadly, NWS has decided (or someone else decided for them in leadership,) that it is worth doing.  Facts.  It's a societal issue. 

[mob1]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

But if weather forecasting is a joke it's because of all the hype and the "Direct weather" types that hype everything and the average person doesn't understand  the difference between them and the NWS.

The professionals shouldn't be in the business of posting just to gain clicks or followers but to differentiate themselves from the amateurs

With that said I didn't see the post but I'm all for humor 

Exactly 

In other news, your avatar makes me sad. That was some grade A weather porn.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, mob1 said:

Exactly 

In other news, your avatar makes me sad. That was some grade A weather porn.

Lol it's a classic even if it's not going to happen

[anthonyweather]

11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

But if weather forecasting is a joke it's because of all the hype and the "Direct weather" types that hype everything and the average person doesn't understand  the difference between them and the NWS.

The professionals shouldn't be in the business of posting just to gain clicks or followers but to differentiate themselves from the amateurs

With that said I didn't see the post but I'm all for humor 

 
I mean realistically, they only have 180k followers. Getting posts out to grow your following organically helps down the road when it matters Imo 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

 
I mean realistically, they only have 180k followers. Getting posts out to grow your following organically helps down the road when it matters Imo 

Was probably intended to be humorous but inappropriate especially given how fast BS gets spread on social media these days, and then people twist into misinformation. Then the panic headlines “NWS predicts up to 40” of snow this weekend”. I knew the zonked up GFS runs with 20+ amounts would be everywhere and sure enough. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

51 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Yup. Anthony is great. He never, ever gives up hope. He needs to change his name back to MetsFanforLife. We had better luck.

I agree totally. Since he changed his name to MJO five of the last six winters have been bad, three of the six all time top ten bad.
 

I can't stand the Mutts, but I want that name back. It may be the only thing that can save us. 

He also used snow88 way back in the day. I think that name brought us our best winters. There's an obvious correlation and powers at work that he may not even be aware of.