Franklin0529 Posted Tuesday at 09:33 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:33 PM 17 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: solid trend on the RGEM Still not even close 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted Tuesday at 09:35 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:35 PM 18 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: solid trend on the RGEM I have to see the GFS bring it back here in 20 mins and then the 18z Euro follow suit, then both through 0z or I'm 100% out. I thinking flakes here right now and that's fine, but one slight shift or run-on-its-own won't move me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Tuesday at 09:36 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:36 PM A big storm is Definitely off the table now. My hope would be to trend this towards a 2-4/3-6 deal but that’s a low probability currently 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted Tuesday at 09:43 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:43 PM 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: A big storm is Definitely off the table now. My hope would be to trend this towards a 2-4/3-6 deal but that’s a low probability currently I would take some nickels and dimes. At least w'de get some snow while we have cold. I'd sign up for 2-4 right now, forget the risk of the big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted Tuesday at 09:46 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:46 PM King Euro is back. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted Tuesday at 09:47 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:47 PM Just now, psv88 said: King Euro is back. Who said! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 09:47 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:47 PM Just now, psv88 said: King Euro is back. Pretty much unless all the models change which is possible . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Tuesday at 09:49 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:49 PM 13 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: I have to see the GFS bring it back here in 20 mins and then the 18z Euro follow suit, then both through 0z or I'm 100% out. I thinking flakes here right now and that's fine, but one slight shift or run-on-its-own won't move me. i’m not looking for a major storm. anything is better than nothing 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted Tuesday at 09:55 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:55 PM 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: i’m not looking for a major storm. anything is better than nothing As a lurker from the Philly forum, always appreciate your optimistic analysis. Don’t let the trolls keep you down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted Tuesday at 10:00 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:00 PM 12z AI Gencast Euro a bit less amplified this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted Tuesday at 10:02 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:02 PM Not much change on 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 10:02 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:02 PM Just now, Edge Weather said: Not much change on 18z GFS Tad further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Tuesday at 10:02 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:02 PM 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 10:03 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:03 PM Just now, Allsnow said: Not bad Mid Atlantic wins again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Tuesday at 10:04 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:04 PM Just now, MJO812 said: Not bad Mid Atlantic wins again Hopefully a mod hit for us 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted Tuesday at 10:05 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:05 PM Garbage, NEXT! GFS is so close though. Probably stand on the Coney Island boardwalk and see heavy snow 50 miles off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Tuesday at 10:06 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:06 PM GFS is a Little closer. I wonder why the precip shield is so tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted Tuesday at 10:08 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:08 PM Just now, EastonSN+ said: GFS is a Little closer. I wonder why the precip shield is so tight. That's honestly a great spot for a coastal low....the precip shield will be better modeled on the meso models... We're not far off here....people are acting like the storm is 300 miles off the coast at this point.... 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Tuesday at 10:11 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:11 PM 2 minutes ago, jdj5211 said: That's honestly a great spot for a coastal low....the precip shield will be better modeled on the meso models... We're not far off here....people are acting like the storm is 300 miles off the coast at this point.... I think I heard before that if there is a high pressure to the north feeding in colder air the piece of shield will be expansive like 1996 however if there is a low to the north then the precip shield will not be as expansive. Perhaps I meant on this board can confirm or deny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Tuesday at 10:11 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:11 PM 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: GFS is a Little closer. I wonder why the precip shield is so tight. The storm isn't well enough developed at 500mb to throw much snow back west. The storm needs to develop more aloft on its own for that to happen. It has a closed 850 low here and nothing higher. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Tuesday at 10:12 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:12 PM Just now, EastonSN+ said: I think I heard before that if there is a high pressure to the north feeding in colder air the piece of shield will be expansive like 1996 however if there is a low to the north then the precip shield will not be as expansive. Perhaps I meant on this board can confirm or deny. Precip shields are usually more expansive in el ninos because of the juicier sub tropical jet. It also sometimes happens in la ninas that come after el ninos because there is a lag effect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Tuesday at 10:13 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:13 PM 23 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: i’m not looking for a major storm. anything is better than nothing Seems like we are trending a bit better and for a moderate even I'd rather see things a bit S and E right now as the usual trend is N and W 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Tuesday at 10:15 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:15 PM 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The storm isn't well enough developed at 500mb to throw much snow back west. The storm needs to develop more aloft on its own for that to happen. It has a closed 850 low here and nothing higher. fast northern stream causing it to race ENE before it can fully develop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
milleand Posted Tuesday at 10:40 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:40 PM FWIW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Tuesday at 10:42 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:42 PM Gefs definitely stepped back from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Tuesday at 10:44 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:44 PM Just now, Allsnow said: Gefs definitely stepped back from 12z Approaching 1/15 which is halfway point of met winter, definitely trending towards the fail column. Hey, it's in good company with 18-19, 19-20, 22-23, 23-24. Couldn't care less that there are lots of windy dry cold days. The T-storm complexes on New Years Eve and cutters will always show up when the weather turns warm again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Tuesday at 10:50 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:50 PM 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Approaching 1/15 which is halfway point of met winter, definitely trending towards the fail column. Hey, it's in good company with 18-19, 19-20, 22-23, 23-24. Couldn't care less that there are lots of windy dry cold days. The T-storm complexes on New Years Eve and cutters will always show up when the weather turns warm again. We might get the first below normal winter in 10 years with very little snow to show for it Just bad timing in a overall good pattern. Dec was bad pna position January too much blocking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Tuesday at 10:51 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:51 PM 31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: fast northern stream causing it to race ENE before it can fully develop? Pretty much, the streams don't phase, the S stream gets strung out like silly putty and the whole mess gets booted out to sea by the kicker trough behind it. Like getting yanked off the stage with a cane when you choke. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted Tuesday at 10:56 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:56 PM 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Pretty much, the streams don't phase, the S stream gets strung out like silly putty and the whole mess gets booted out to sea by the kicker trough behind it. Like getting yanked off the stage with a cane when you choke. That southern stream phase is literally like 6 hours off probably....a little quicker and we're back in business. Not saying it will happen but it's still possible if you just believe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted Tuesday at 10:59 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:59 PM Maybe it’ll be a Long Island scraper. And I won’t feel at all bad about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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