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Jan 11th-12th Super Bomb or Super Bummed?


Rjay
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Just now, bluewave said:

It was actually one of our most impressive 3 week winter periods of all-time with a 30” snowfall in spots and then another 10”+ in early February and then the first below 0° in NYC since 1994.

Kara Sea Block?

I remember the storm near the Superbowl gave us like 4-6 inches.... I dont remember if that was the storm that caused the big crane crash in Manhattan though?

 

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1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

There was that -1 on Valentines Day morning.  Cold and dry..... sounds so familiar....

I recall that day. We were playing in an end of the season basketball tournament.  Our game was in the evening.  A few of the players hair was wet, by the time we got to the bus their hair had frozen... 

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3 hours ago, wdrag said:

My only thought on 96 and even through 2010 ish...  models weren't nearly as good.  

 

Those of us who're in our 70s and older (hands please) , have witnessed spectacular improvements in general model consensus through at least 5 days... even this storm just passed was thread started the 30th, couched in the uncertainty (see p1 of the Jan 6 thread if interested)). Maybe even those on here who're only `60 (born in 65), probably are aware of the spectacular improvement.  ALL of us should now know how helpful the short term models are (HRRR(X) and RAP.  Ditto the science of medicine but I won digress. 

They definitely seem better than ever. When they're not perfect every Statler and Waldorf on the board starts blowing raspberries to express whatever it is they are trying to express.  At least they have someplace to express themselves.

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7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is annoying

 

No reason to look at any models past 7 days anymore. Breaks your heart.

Set expectations low in a winter like this and on the off chance something happens, appreciate it more. Mets have been posting how this pattern probably doesn’t support a major storm. Hopefully the 3-5” type event can happen. 

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13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Models doing a great job with this pattern inside 5 days. The most recent storm locked in by Wednesday of the previous week 

It’s a fragile setup but there’s a low cap on what can happen with no phase. If no phase we have to hope for some Atlantic enhancement from the N stream system, that’s about it. 

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41 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Okay I am not a met, however, wouldn't the decaying blocking in the AO and nao regions allow this to nudge a little North? 

Forky mentioned that our storm would happen as the block decays.

image.thumb.png.64042de2c25f8e63a6ced86316a554b6.png

i meant more toward the end of the month

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Almost every model is showing at least 1-2/2-4" for the DC-Boston megalopolis or not that far SE of there meaning a minor (1-2") to moderate (2-4") event is not the almost pipe dream that a bomb is and most of us would be happy with a few more inches of snow.  I'm loving looking out my window right now at 1.2" of snow, which should mostly still be there come Saturday.  

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4 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Almost every model is showing at least 1-2/2-4" for the DC-Boston megalopolis or not that far SE of there meaning a minor (1-2") to moderate (2-4") event is not the almost pipe dream that a bomb is and most of us would be happy with a few more inches of snow.  I'm loving looking out my window right now at 1.2" of snow, which should mostly still be there come Saturday.  

Almost every model is not showing 2-4. Stop

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3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

That departure from normal is more than the Patriots averaged per game during the 2023 season lol...

Yeah, hard to believe we got such an amazing 24 day stretch of winter following a December than was warmer than most Novembers. 
 

Maximum 24-Day Total Snowfall 
for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 40.8 1961-02-07 0
- 40.8 1961-02-06 0
- 40.8 1961-02-05 0
- 40.8 1961-02-04 0
2 39.8 1961-02-08 0
3 38.5 2016-02-15 0


 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 1963 -2 0
2 1961 -1 0
3 1967 0 0
4 2016 1 0
5 1979 2 0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Almost every model is not showing 2-4. Stop

You need to read my post more closely - I said "at least 1-2/2-4" for the DC-Boston megalopolis or not that far SE of there" with the 12ZGFS/6ZEuro/12ZICON showing that for the megalopolis along 95 and the 12ZCMC showing that about 50-75 miles SE of 95 (i.e., mostly off-shore, but still "not that far SE of there").  

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2 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I do not see that. It looks cold just like what we've been having. Severe cold to me is lows 10-15 highs 20-25 or lower. Don't see it.

WX/PT

yeah models backed away from that pretty quickly-seems like extreme cold/heat is often overdone in the long range-another reason to not look at OP models past 5 days

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3 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I do not see that. It looks cold just like what we've been having. Severe cold to me is lows 10-15 highs 20-25 or lower. Don't see it.

WX/PT

Yeah not dropping below 20 in the city in January can't be considered severe.  It's an impressive streak of slightly below average temps though 

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