Jan 11th-12th Super Bomb or Super Bummed?

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, North and West said:

Don’t worry, if it doesn’t happen now, it has snowed plenty of times later in the winter even when it’s been very mild preceding it. Point is, no one actually knows what’s going on even when they think they do, and things are out of your control.


.

It seems like it snows more often in milder patterns than in colder patterns.  For some reason snow is more likely when it's in  the 50s a few days before and after a snowstorm, but when you have a week of temperatures in the 20s and low 30s then snow is much less likely.  Go figure.

[North and West]

It’s better then what’s coming to end January into Feb 

It can still snow though, even when the odds are not as favorable. Point is, three weeks out is an eternity and these things never stay static; the only constant is change.


.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, RU848789 said:

To summarize, at 0Z, GFS is a significant snowstorm for most of our area, especially the coast, while the Euro gives an inch or two towards the coast, but is essentially out to sea again (similar to the past few runs) and the CMC and UK are also out to sea well to our SE, with all four models giving decent snowfalls to the deep south then some to SC/NC/SoVA before heading up the coast (GFS) or out to sea (Euro, CMC, UK); the ICON does give our area a few inches.

This system is on life support for being a major snowstorm for our area, kind of like RU's hoops season, lol. In both cases, it's not over yet, but if we don't see dramatic changes soon, they're toast. And the 6Z GFS is similar to 0Z with the Euro to come. Great analysis of what's going on meteorologically by Tomer Burg, below, including why this system is much more complex and unpredictable 5 days out than today's storm was.

https://x.com/burgwx/status/1876453467453083696

you got 3 sausages for this post for some odd reason.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The combo of that jet and the vort I think it snows for sure.  I'd rather be us right now than SNE probably.

I doubt anyone will be unhappy if we get 1-3, any snow is good snow.

 

[Allsnow]

 

[wdrag]

49 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

You’re 9 years older than me and to this day I still see plenty of posts of how the models suck since they were upgraded or how they cannot get a good handle on the Synoptics. Still hoping for a swing in a favorable direction.


.

These negativity posts need specifics.  Maybe reviewers aren't looking at the spectrum of models.

My confidence in modeling is very high.  Imperfect yes.  D8 off by 150 miles but an event was heralded...just up to the individual to cut a specific model some slack and realize that the reviewer might not be perfect either or not aware of model limitations.  

[eduggs]

34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I doubt anyone will be unhappy if we get 1-3, any snow is good snow.

 

3" feels like a snowstorm, especially if it's cold and accumulates easily on all surfaces. Most people will be happy with that. 1" usually feels like a nuisance event if hoping for a moderate event and will leave most people disappointed. 1-3 is not a thing. It's an old-fashioned, lazy, range forecast.

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, eduggs said:

3" feels like a snowstorm, especially if it's cold and accumulates easily on all surfaces. Most people will be happy with that. 1" usually feels like a nuisance event if hoping for a moderate event and will leave most people disappointed. 1-3 is not a thing. It's an old-fashioned, lazy, range forecast.

and yet 1-3 is the most common forecast we get around here.

Ranges don't work like that though.  A forecast of 1-3 is really a forecast for 2" with a margin of error of +/- 1".  The moisture content difference between 1" and 3" is only 0.2"

[eduggs]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

and yet 1-3 is the most common forecast we get around here.

Ranges don't work like that though.  A forecast of 1-3 is really a forecast for 2" with a margin of error of +/- 1".

Yup. And it's usually a bad forecast. I'm okay with forecasts of 1-2" or 2-3".

Winter QPF is generally forecastable with a higher precision than 0.1 - 0.3". The cases where a 1-3" range occurs locally is usually with high liquid to snow ratios where the fluff factor in isolated bands can significantly increase the local snowfall variability. Regardless, I think it's bad practice to forecast a snowfall range that spans the gap between nuisance and solidly plowable. Sorry for the off-topic...

[NJwx85]

12z NAM looking better. Maybe it's the start of a trend. Today is probably the last day for significant changes.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Yup. And it's usually a bad forecast. I'm okay with forecasts of 1-2" or 2-3".

Winter QPF is generally forecastable with a higher precision than 0.1 - 0.3". The cases where a 1-3" range occurs locally is usually with high liquid to snow ratios where the fluff factor in isolated bands can significantly increase the local snowfall variability. Regardless, I think it's bad practice to forecast a snowfall range that spans the gap between nuisance and solidly plowable. Sorry for the off-topic...

I understand.  High fluff may actually work in this case because of the extended cold period we've been in.

The other scenario I often see 1-3 inches being forecast is during a mix or changeover scenario.  There seems to be an imprecise nature to timing when mixing or changing over will occur and/or they are forecasting for a county in which one part of the county will change over before a different part will.  

Other forecasts along those lines that I find really annoying are 4-8 and 6-12.

[Allsnow]

Icon looks to be diving in more of the northern stream this run 

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

My only thought on 96 and even through 2010 ish...  models weren't nearly as good.  

 

Those of us who're in our 70s and older (hands please) , have witnessed spectacular improvements in general model consensus through at least 5 days... even this storm just passed was thread started the 30th, couched in the uncertainty (see p1 of the Jan 6 thread if interested)). Maybe even those on here who're only `60 (born in 65), probably are aware of the spectacular improvement.  ALL of us should now know how helpful the short term models are (HRRR(X) and RAP.  Ditto the science of medicine but I won digress. 

Don't know if you or others would know the answer to this, but has anyone ever gone back and run some big storms with very checkered modeling history, like 12/26/2010 (which looked dead 36 hours before the event and then boom! as most around here would know), using today's models, which we know are more accurate, in general, to see if they would've done better than the 2010 models did?  I know the model improvements over the years are not all due to the physical models themselves, but are also due to the improvements in the richness of the data inputs, so today's models with 2010 or 1980 data inputs might not be as good, but I would love to know the answer to how today's models would do vs. older models for storms of the past.  

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

Don't know if you or others would know the answer to this, but has anyone ever gone back and run some big storms with very checkered modeling history, like 12/26/2010 (which looked dead 36 hours before the event and then boom! as most around here would know), using today's models, which we know are more accurate, in general, to see if they would've done better than the 2010 models did?  I know the model improvements over the years are not all due to the physical models themselves, but are also due to the improvements in the richness of the data inputs, so today's models with 2010 or 1980 data inputs might not be as good, but I would love to know the answer to how today's models would do vs. older models for storms of the past.  

an excellent idea!  I'd like to run some busts from the 80s and 90s into this and there is also the very famous January 1978 positive bust!

[Stormlover74]

13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Icon looks to be diving in more of the northern stream this run 

Light event. We take

[MANDA]

5 hours ago, wdrag said:

 

DC-Baltimore through Philly-NYC-BOS along and north of I95... a small snow event seems likely Saturday the 11th with dustings to possibly at worst 4 inches but am not playing up a major event. This could have some travel impact but far too early to be sure. Maybe the most favored area for snowfall is the immediate coast of NJ/LI/CT. There's still a small chance this storm will blow up bigger and closer to the coast. Treated roads melt but timing of occurrence will have a bearing on the hazard potential, especially with ice cold surfaces preceding this event.

I can handle a weenie roast, especially if 4+ for NYC on this event.  Right now all modeling through the 06z/7 cycle is kind of merged into the above paragraph.

I haven't seen all prior posts, but for what it's worth, I do not use analogs.  I treat each event differently, not trying to profile it as one or the other category.  Yesterday a good example up here (suppression factor). A lot of these events have a lot to do with banding physics...models are helpful but imperfect.

I'll post the CoCoRaHs snow totals in the other thread at about 10A. 

 

 

 

 

 

Love that you are now a fan of analogs.  Never found of them of much use and especially not now in this current climate cycle. 

[MANDA]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

It just sucks that we can't capitalize on a really good pattern. Very frustrating  .

I think better to say we can't capitalize on a cold pattern.  If it were a really good pattern we would be doing better than we are.  Just my 2 cents. 

[EastonSN+]

Nice 1 to 3 on the icon.

[EWR757]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

My only thought on 96 and even through 2010 ish...  models weren't nearly as good.  

 

Those of us who're in our 70s and older (hands please) , have witnessed spectacular improvements in general model consensus through at least 5 days... even this storm just passed was thread started the 30th, couched in the uncertainty (see p1 of the Jan 6 thread if interested)). Maybe even those on here who're only `60 (born in 65), probably are aware of the spectacular improvement.  ALL of us should now know how helpful the short term models are (HRRR(X) and RAP.  Ditto the science of medicine but I won digress. 

 

I too remember the days of the LFM, NGM, ETA and AVN models.  Modelling has come a long way as has the understanding and science of the atmosphere.  In addition, various observational networks have increased several fold.  Data that we could have only dreamed of 20 years ago is readily available in real-time these days.

I assume that machine learning and deep learning will eventually make numerical and deterministic modelling obsolete.  The challenges are how humans will interact with the new technology.  As with my industry (aviation), the art of the career becomes less and less as more work becomes automated.  The need for human intervention will continue to exist (for now), but the job descriptions change.

As far as medicine, unfortunately there are a lot of conflicts of interest, lack of oversight and miscommunication.  That field has a long way to go, although strides have been made.  Fields like meteorology and aviation, for example, are much more matured at this point.  Three decades ago, aircraft accidents were frequent.  There are many more flights now than at that time, and thankfully accidents are exceedingly rare.  Same is true for forecast busts.

 

Now, if only human psychology can mature as quickly as technology.  Interesting times ahead...

[wdrag]

Am not a fan of "over" or "under" performing but I know its a way of saying below or above expectations.  It's just the models not quite "whatever" to be as accurate as expected. 

[RU848789]

12Z ICON looks similar to 6Z giving our area a general 1-3" snowfall on the northern fringe of the snow shield, with more for the mid-Atlantic.  Totally different setup, though, with a Miller A vs. the SWFE we had yesterday, so more room for positive/negative changes, IMO.  Would gladly take another 1-3" though.  The 12Z NAM looked quite similar to the ICON at 84 hours, at least at the surface - and to me all of the models look pretty similar at the surface through 0Z Saturday with the low on the FL Panhandle and then they diverge. 

[EastonSN+]

7 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

12Z ICON looks similar to 6Z giving our area a general 1-3" snowfall on the northern fringe of the snow shield, with more for the mid-Atlantic.  Totally different setup, though, with a Miller A vs. the SWFE we had yesterday, so more room for positive/negative changes, IMO.  Would gladly take another 1-3" though.  The 12Z NAM looked quite similar to the ICON at 84 hours, at least at the surface - and to me all of the models look pretty similar at the surface through 0Z Saturday with the low on the FL Panhandle and then they diverge. 

Seems the northern system is stronger helping us. Also the weaker Southern low is not condensing precip shield.

[jm1220]

15 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

12Z ICON looks similar to 6Z giving our area a general 1-3" snowfall on the northern fringe of the snow shield, with more for the mid-Atlantic.  Totally different setup, though, with a Miller A vs. the SWFE we had yesterday, so more room for positive/negative changes, IMO.  Would gladly take another 1-3" though.  The 12Z NAM looked quite similar to the ICON at 84 hours, at least at the surface - and to me all of the models look pretty similar at the surface through 0Z Saturday with the low on the FL Panhandle and then they diverge. 

Maybe we can get the northern snow shield to beef up to make it a more 3-5” type event, the setup looks vigorous even without the big coastal low and there should be some decent Atlantic moisture incorporated. 

[Stormlover74]

Gfs hits delmarva and south jersey again. Lighter snows up here

[LibertyBell]

27 minutes ago, EWR757 said:

 

I too remember the days of the LFM, NGM, ETA and AVN models.  Modelling has come a long way as has the understanding and science of the atmosphere.  In addition, various observational networks have increased several fold.  Data that we could have only dreamed of 20 years ago is readily available in real-time these days.

I assume that machine learning and deep learning will eventually make numerical and deterministic modelling obsolete.  The challenges are how humans will interact with the new technology.  As with my industry (aviation), the art of the career becomes less and less as more work becomes automated.  The need for human intervention will continue to exist (for now), but the job descriptions change.

As far as medicine, unfortunately there are a lot of conflicts of interest, lack of oversight and miscommunication.  That field has a long way to go, although strides have been made.  Fields like meteorology and aviation, for example, are much more matured at this point.  Three decades ago, aircraft accidents were frequent.  There are many more flights now than at that time, and thankfully accidents are exceedingly rare.  Same is true for forecast busts.

 

Now, if only human psychology can mature as quickly as technology.  Interesting times ahead...

100% correct and with regards to medicine, it doesn't help that our regulatory agencies are captured.  (Drug company ads make me want to vomit.)

 

[the_other_guy]

take the light event if it comes. it’s gonna be bitter cold afterwards you’ll have snow on the ground for the week. not everything has to be a blizzard.

[cleetussnow]

Fading...7th inning here down a few runs

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs hits delmarva and south jersey again. Lighter snows up here

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

take the light event if it comes. it’s gonna be bitter cold afterwards you’ll have snow on the ground for the week. not everything has to be a blizzard.

This is trending towards nothing up here and I'm fine with that. Have my son's birthday party on Saturday afternoon anyway.

And no legit snowlover would be happy with a 1-3" event when the GFS was showing 20-30" yesterday.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

take the light event if it comes. it’s gonna be bitter cold afterwards you’ll have snow on the ground for the week. not everything has to be a blizzard.

even the 1 inch or so from yesterday's storm isn't going anywhere so it will be snow on top of snow.