Jt17 Posted Tuesday at 12:21 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:21 AM anybody notice a trend?This is a damn good post.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted Tuesday at 12:21 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:21 AM 18 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: EPS is better. hangs less crap back I guess to each his own but some are thinking northern stream issues and some are thinking southern stream issues. I am in the southern stream camp. Too much hangs back and it makes any phase much less likely. No phase and we're essentially out of business. We'll see how this plays out. I would never ever bet the farm with only the GFS solidly in my camp so I really need some better agreement from either the CMC or the EURO, don't really care which at this point. All comes down to timing a reasonably coherent phase. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted Tuesday at 12:27 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:27 AM 5 minutes ago, Jt17 said: This is a damn good post. . Best post of this entire thread....hard to argue that data..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted Tuesday at 12:29 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:29 AM 7 minutes ago, Jt17 said: This is a damn good post. . Let’s not get crazy, Euro is still very much a hard NO. This remains extremely unlikely 1 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightknights Posted Tuesday at 12:31 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:31 AM 54 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: January 1996 was also undermeasured. I was in the same location for January 1996 and PD2 and PD2 was 26 inches at JFK, January 1996 was in no way shape or form only 22 inches. And February 1978 was in no way shape or form only 14 inches but that's a different story. 32" and I plowed that storm. Sold my plow after that year. It wasnt just the snow it was drifts as well. I was completely frozen solid from waist on down getting my truck stuck & shoveling myself out. My heat worked on vacuum setup and lost that. Plowed for a week straight on that storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted Tuesday at 12:33 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:33 AM 2 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Let’s not get crazy, Euro is still very much a hard NO. This remains extremely unlikely Ok hotdog man! lol…. You and Snowman always go against trends or whatever is snow related talk. 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted Tuesday at 12:33 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:33 AM Agreed. 18z EC EPS is definitely better if you want snow on Saturday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted Tuesday at 12:44 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:44 AM 13 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Ok hotdog man! lol…. You and Snowman always go against trends or whatever is snow related talk. To stay away from any conflict, I think you’re both right. Yes the EPS was an improvement but there’s obviously more work to be done. Until the Euro gets fully on board, I’m not diving in yet. Been burned too many times my friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted Tuesday at 12:45 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:45 AM Crystal Mommy Energywaiting ongothgirlfriend . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted Tuesday at 12:48 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:48 AM 26 minutes ago, Jt17 said: This is a damn good post. . Trending in a better direction five days out is really all you can ask for right now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted Tuesday at 01:00 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:00 AM 13 minutes ago, North and West said: waiting on goth girlfriend . We're all manifesting in our own way. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Tuesday at 01:14 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:14 AM 41 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Ok hotdog man! lol…. You and Snowman always go against trends or whatever is snow related talk. 9 weiners that's impressive. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted Tuesday at 01:22 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:22 AM GFS is mostly rain at the coast as the low rides out along the south shore of LI. The heavy snow is well north and west. WX/PT 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Tuesday at 01:24 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:24 AM Classic @qg_omega and @Wxoutlooksblog posts. this event is on 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted Tuesday at 01:30 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:30 AM 55 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Ok hotdog man! lol…. You and Snowman always go against trends or whatever is snow related talk. 14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 9 weiners that's impressive. Sometimes one is all it takes. Ever hopeful, as always …. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 01:34 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:34 AM 12 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: GFS is mostly rain at the coast as the low rides out along the south shore of LI. The heavy snow is well north and west. WX/PT What ? Are you looking at the same model that everyone else is? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Tuesday at 01:38 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:38 AM 9 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: GFS is mostly rain at the coast as the low rides out along the south shore of LI. The heavy snow is well north and west. WX/PT GFS is likely at the left goalpost with its aggressive fully phased solution and its on the left end of the GEFS but the blocking to the N/kicker to the west will have to do work to prevent a hugger with an outcome like that. If we really have a low riding almost due N ending up over Fire Island, that’s an inland favored outcome like 3/14/17. But at some point those factors pushing it east will take over and boot it out. Hopefully that would happen near the Delmarva and not Fire Island. Other models are much further east obviously but this seems like an all or nothing type outcome where we either have a phased bomb or unimpressive slider out to sea. It’s more likely of course we don’t have the coastal hugger but can’t say it’s not a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted Tuesday at 01:40 AM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 01:40 AM 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: What ? Are you looking at the same model that everyone else is? The 18z op was mostly rain at the coast. Why are you jumping on him? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted Tuesday at 01:44 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:44 AM 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: The 18z op was mostly rain at the coast. Why are you jumping on him? If this thing actually happens, and we have 34 and rain while Jersey snows…….i just don’t know how I’ll cope with that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Tuesday at 01:45 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:45 AM the last thing i would worry about right now is coastal p-type. let’s get a storm first please 8 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted Tuesday at 01:46 AM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 01:46 AM Just now, brooklynwx99 said: the last thing i would worry about right now is coastal p-type Ofc but I was responding to metsfan's delusion 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Tuesday at 01:47 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:47 AM 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: the last thing i would worry about right now is coastal p-type Not worried about it. I’m glad the models are moving towards a bigger storm in general. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted Tuesday at 01:50 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:50 AM 2 hours ago, NEG NAO said: agree 100 % - I think too many folks are jumping the gun on this one based on 2 runs of a GFS OP and the 12Z Euro a complete miss of the phase and out to sea - need more support for the GFS solution to support a storm scenario...... Not sure where this started outside of our subforum at least a day prior to us starting the thread. It's not good that we egg it on. For now, I'm pretty strongly against this happening... one big reason... the ECMWF ensembles 6th-12th are basically drier than normal... they can adjust on the edges closer to LI with time, but I dont see an above normal weekly amount of qpf 6th-12th... that would be your super bomb. I've been wrong before so my door is open to a low or very low prob possibility but I think the WPC WSSI P is the prudent way to keep this in perspective. Tone it down until the EC comes on board and through 18z/6... it is not, at least so far. We are hungry for a big snowstorm - I understand. I foresee about 0.1 to 2" from whatever happens the 11th in our NYC subfzorum... more or less similar to today's first January snowfall on LI. The bigger problems I think are further south somewhere in the interior of NC and interior Virginia/DE Cape May region where I'd monitor for delays and possible plan changing weather late 10th-11th. 3 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted Tuesday at 01:50 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:50 AM 8 minutes ago, Rjay said: The 18z op was mostly rain at the coast. Why are you jumping on him? Define "coast". Verbatim NYC gets 10+ on the 18z GFS. Down the Jersey Shore and LI, yes, much less snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted Tuesday at 01:50 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:50 AM EC with Ai implementation from gencast is slightly better than the operational run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted Tuesday at 01:52 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:52 AM 2 minutes ago, wdrag said: Not sure where this started outside of our subforum at least a day prior to us starting the thread. It's not good that we egg it on. For now, I'm pretty strongly against this happening... one big reason... the ECMWF ensembles 6th-12th are basically drier than normal... they can adjust on the edges closer to LI with time, but I dont see an above normal weekly amount of qpf 6th-12th... that would be your super bomb. I've been wrong before so my door is open to a low or very low prob possibility but I think the WPC WSSI P is the prudent way to keep this in perspective. Tone it down until the EC comes on board and through 18z/6... it is not, at least so far. We are hungry for a big snowstorm - I understand. I foresee about 0.1 to 2" from whatever happens the 11th in our NYC subfzorum... more or less similar to today's first January snowfall on LI. The bigger problems I think are further south somewhere in the interior of NC and interior Virginia/DE Cape May region where I'd monitor for delays and possible plan changing weather late 10th-11th. Great post Walt, nuisance snow at best is the correct early call 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted Tuesday at 01:54 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:54 AM 3 minutes ago, wdrag said: Not sure where this started outside of our subforum at least a day prior to us starting the thread. It's not good that we egg it on. For now, I'm pretty strongly against this happening... one big reason... the ECMWF ensembles 6th-12th are basically drier than normal... they can adjust on the edges closer to LI with time, but I dont see an above normal weekly amount of qpf 6th-12th... that would be your super bomb. I've been wrong before so my door is open to a low or very low prob possibility but I think the WPC WSSI P is the prudent way to keep this in perspective. Tone it down until the EC comes on board and through 18z/6... it is not, at least so far. We are hungry for a big snowstorm - I understand. I foresee about 0.1 to 2" from whatever happens the 11th in our NYC subfzorum... more or less similar to today's first January snowfall on LI. The bigger problems I think are further south somewhere in the interior of NC and interior Virginia/DE Cape May region where I'd monitor for delays and possible plan changing weather late 10th-11th. Sorry Walt. Some of us decided to venture down the weenie brick road. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted Tuesday at 02:01 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:01 AM 10 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Not worried about it. I’m glad the models are moving towards a bigger storm in general. Agree, we’re 5 days away. You know that there will be adjustments. It’s all about timing. Once all the players are on the field and some samplings are made, hopefully we’ll have model consensus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted Tuesday at 02:02 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:02 AM 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Let’s not get crazy, Euro is still very much a hard NO. This remains extremely unlikely EURO is not the king it once was. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted Tuesday at 02:03 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:03 AM Is there a simplistic approach to understanding temporal and spacial import of data into specific models? I'm still trying to understand the basis for which models weigh current data sampling against past analogs. I've finally had time over the past weeks to dive into the history of different models, but have been rather unsuccessful with my efforts to find a thorough explanation of modern updates. If anyone has any literature that the layman can understand clearly, I'd be grateful for resources. I have a formal education in oceanography, so I'm not scientifically illiterate, but I'm having a hard time drawing certain connections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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