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Jan 11th-12th Super Bomb or Super Bummed?


Rjay
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19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nam south

Not shocking 

Both Nam models didn't look bad to me. They actually have some higher totals in northern NJ with some spots 1 to 2 inches. HRRR not as impressed with closer to a half inch for a lot of the area, but it's still very early for that model.

I think overall the model trends are pretty good. Timing is good too with late night into early morning, and snow ratios look pretty good. We have a decent chance to get an inch. It looks pretty similar to Monday's event. 

Hopefully we'll get a bigger storm later in the month, but I'm glad we continue to nickel and dime our way to near normal snowfall with these light events during this cold pattern. 

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19 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Both Nam models didn't look bad to me. They actually have some higher totals in northern NJ with some spots 1 to 2 inches. HRRR not as impressed with closer to a half inch for a lot of the area, but it's still very early for that model.

I think overall the model trends are pretty good. Timing is good too with late night into early morning, and snow ratios look pretty good. We have a decent chance to get an inch. It looks pretty similar to Monday's event. 

Hopefully we'll get a bigger storm later in the month, but I'm glad we continue to nickel and dime our way to near normal snowfall with these light events during this cold pattern. 

I would be fine with 1 inch

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12z-18 EC, HRRR, RGEM are all down on much snow LI and surroundings, generally near 1/2" or less. 21z RAP and 18 NAM beefier. We know what to root for and check again tomorrow morning.  In the meantime, enjoy your family.  As many have said... its gonna do what it wants and we just cant let the good life with family and friends pass us by. 

 

Yes my dog was walked and he was at brisk pace. 

 

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3 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Both Nam models didn't look bad to me. They actually have some higher totals in northern NJ with some spots 1 to 2 inches. HRRR not as impressed with closer to a half inch for a lot of the area, but it's still very early for that model.

I think overall the model trends are pretty good. Timing is good too with late night into early morning, and snow ratios look pretty good. We have a decent chance to get an inch. It looks pretty similar to Monday's event. 

Hopefully we'll get a bigger storm later in the month, but I'm glad we continue to nickel and dime our way to near normal snowfall with these light events during this cold pattern. 

Nickels and dimes would be good, but these have been pennies.

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11 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Been dead for days, arguably was never alive. GFS valiantly attempted CPR but patient long ago coded. 

Looking back - why were we so taken in by one model’s solution?  Should have been easily discounted in hindsight.  I guess the pattern was good enough but no other model timed the phase.  Kind of feel like a sucker now.

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13 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Looking back - why were we so taken in by one model’s solution?  Should have been easily discounted in hindsight.  I guess the pattern was good enough but no other model timed the phase.  Kind of feel like a sucker now.

No real people here bought the gfs besides the usual same people who are always wrong

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24 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Looking back - why were we so taken in by one model’s solution?  Should have been easily discounted in hindsight.  I guess the pattern was good enough but no other model timed the phase.  Kind of feel like a sucker now.

Only because it showed it 5 or 6 times it seemed like it might be on to something but yeah no other model ever showed anything close so the hope was for a minor to maybe moderate event. Now it's going to be a dusting to maybe an inch 

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26 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Looking back - why were we so taken in by one model’s solution?  Should have been easily discounted in hindsight.  I guess the pattern was good enough but no other model timed the phase.  Kind of feel like a sucker now.

There were signs in the ensembles that other models might catch on but none really jumped in, then the streams were clearly progged not to cooperate with the oncoming kicker and fast flow. Hopefully the northern stream trough is potent enough to give some of us up to an inch. Another fail. 

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Tonight's GFS says we get close to an inch. I really wish we could get something even just slightly better like a 2 to 4 inch event, but to me an inch is a lot better than nothing so I continue to root for it. I'll take a snowy early Saturday morning with an inch on the ground. Hopefully it'll happen. Right now a half inch to 1 inch looks like a good call. Euro has been showing almost nothing, so hopefully it'll improve tonight. 

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7 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Tonight's GFS says we get close to an inch. I really wish we could get something even just slightly better like a 2 to 4 inch event, but to me an inch is a lot better than nothing so I continue to root for it. I'll take a snowy early Saturday morning with an inch on the ground. Hopefully it'll happen. Right now a half inch to 1 inch looks like a good call. Euro has been showing almost nothing, so hopefully it'll improve tonight. 

You'll learn to enjoy our lower snowfall winters going forward.  Trust me, it's a lot of fun to track low snowfall storms too.  Every inch counts and is a lot of fun to track and see (especially when it falls during the day.)

It's a lot more fun than tracking 4 inch snow that changes to rain, trust me.

 

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1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

I am definitely looking forward to snow in the air and hopefully we can get a coating to an inch which will look nice.

Snowman is laughing at everyone but he doesn't understand most people are happy with just an inch or two of snow.  We aren't skiiers or anything and we don't live in the mountains so why would we even care how much it snows as long as it snows?:

1 inch or 10 inches or 100 inches, snow is snow and no one really cares how much falls as long as it's snow.

The best part about small snowfalls, you don't have to shovel ANYTHING.

 

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Looking back - why were we so taken in by one model’s solution?  Should have been easily discounted in hindsight.  I guess the pattern was good enough but no other model timed the phase.  Kind of feel like a sucker now.

I have to think it’s because it’s showing you what you want to see, just like other solutions show other people what they want to see, so it reinforces their own biases. Just like a slanted news source or radio station for other topics, people love having preconceived notions reinforced. It’s marketing 101.


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