rclab Posted yesterday at 02:24 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:24 PM 11 hours ago, rclab said: If I woke up to /with 6+ inches I sure would consider it a miracle. As always …. 11 hours ago, 72bundy said: That's what she said She was speechless. As always …… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted yesterday at 02:41 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:41 PM 1 hour ago, North and West said: . In all fairness, I have tried to kick the habit of being a sports fan of any team, but the Orange and Blue still haunt me... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted yesterday at 02:55 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:55 PM In all fairness, I have tried to kick the habit of being a sports fan of any team, but the Orange and Blue still haunt me...They’ve been doing their best to try and kill me for over 35 years.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted yesterday at 03:00 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:00 PM 4 minutes ago, North and West said: They’ve been doing their best to try and kill me for over 35 years. . the Knicks? They are overworking their players and will be burnt out (or injured) come playoff time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted yesterday at 03:02 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:02 PM Every time I look at these models, like the NAM in particular, showing what looks to be a nice juicy Miller A meandering along the Gulf Coast bringing juicy precip/snow to the north (and well to the north) and then taking a track towards the OBX thinking we're going to get hammered, but then the storm basically just falls apart and drifts out to sea, it kills me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted yesterday at 03:05 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:05 PM Just now, RU848789 said: Every time I look at these models, like the NAM in particular, showing what looks to be a nice juicy Miller A meandering along the Gulf Coast bringing juicy precip/snow to the north (and well to the north) and then taking a track towards the OBX thinking we're going to get hammered, but then the storm basically just falls apart and drifts out to sea, it kills me. Whatever can go wrong will kind of winter. Unless of course you live in DC south, then they keep cashing in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted yesterday at 03:05 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:05 PM 2 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Every time I look at these models, like the NAM in particular, showing what looks to be a nice juicy Miller A meandering along the Gulf Coast bringing juicy precip/snow to the north (and well to the north) and then taking a track towards the OBX thinking we're going to get hammered, but then the storm basically just falls apart and drifts out to sea, it kills me. And we have model consensus outside of 72 hours. Just not the kind we want to see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted yesterday at 03:09 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:09 PM 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: And we have model consensus outside of 72 hours. Just not the kind we want to see. The euro has been doing well this winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted yesterday at 03:10 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:10 PM 5 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Every time I look at these models, like the NAM in particular, showing what looks to be a nice juicy Miller A meandering along the Gulf Coast bringing juicy precip/snow to the north (and well to the north) and then taking a track towards the OBX thinking we're going to get hammered, but then the storm basically just falls apart and drifts out to sea, it kills me. Yeah it really does hurt. The storm looks like a sure bet down in the Gulf. That's why I mostly look at 500mb and sometimes 250/300mb. The surface is just a response to the upper levels. It's easier to anticipate things falling apart when you look at the upper level charts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted yesterday at 03:22 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:22 PM 3 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Printing this run and shooting it when I go upstate this spring ..And don't be drilling it with the .22 .45 or larger. Preferably incendiary rounds out of a large caliber rifle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted yesterday at 03:26 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:26 PM Ukie did well with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted yesterday at 03:29 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:29 PM 24 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Every time I look at these models, like the NAM in particular, showing what looks to be a nice juicy Miller A meandering along the Gulf Coast bringing juicy precip/snow to the north (and well to the north) and then taking a track towards the OBX thinking we're going to get hammered, but then the storm basically just falls apart and drifts out to sea, it kills me. This is what happens when the system doesn't phase until it's past us. As you can see, the eventual coastal deepens quite dramatically offshore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted yesterday at 03:32 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:32 PM Mike Masco posted one of the GFS runs showing a big storm and then Guarino posted. This was yesterday. I guess he liked the GFS at that point then also said the AO rising should help this storm ride the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted yesterday at 03:33 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:33 PM Euro now having the most snow here still is funny. Must be keying in more on that disturbance or jet than the other models are 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiantBlizzard2003 Posted yesterday at 03:39 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:39 PM The Nam now shows almost no snow for Sat. It is amazing you can go 12 hours a having a Blizzard to 3 or 4 inches to a coating. I think the NWS is implanting their own data into GFS and getting people hopes up. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted yesterday at 03:40 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:40 PM 1 minute ago, GiantBlizzard2003 said: The Nam now shows almost no snow for Sat. It is amazing you can go 12 hours a having a Blizzard to 3 or 4 inches to a coating. I think the NWS is implanting their own data into GFS and getting people hopes up. Rgem has nothing up here. Icon also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted yesterday at 04:11 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:11 PM What snow? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted yesterday at 04:15 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:15 PM 1 hour ago, RU848789 said: Every time I look at these models, like the NAM in particular, showing what looks to be a nice juicy Miller A meandering along the Gulf Coast bringing juicy precip/snow to the north (and well to the north) and then taking a track towards the OBX thinking we're going to get hammered, but then the storm basically just falls apart and drifts out to sea, it kills me. Its obvious we aren't going to get much with a positively tilted trough axis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted yesterday at 04:19 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:19 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted yesterday at 04:20 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:20 PM 8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: What snow? Yeah that must be a model algorithm issue or something the sounding at that time is 32.2/23 at JFK with a NW wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted yesterday at 04:28 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:28 PM 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Yeah that must be a model algorithm issue or something the sounding at that time is 32.2/23 at JFK with a NW wind I'm showing 34 degrees at the surface at 18z Saturday near Newark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted yesterday at 04:29 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:29 PM 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Yeah that must be a model algorithm issue or something the sounding at that time is 32.2/23 at JFK with a NW wind On Pivotalweather it correctly shows it as snow. GFS would be a half inch to 1 inch for most of the area. At this point it appears we're down to rooting for an inch like we got on Monday. I'll still be tracking this as long as we have a shot at a light snowfall. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted yesterday at 04:31 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:31 PM 14 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Yeah that must be a model algorithm issue or something the sounding at that time is 32.2/23 at JFK with a NW wind The GFS is a model loaded with mistakes in the coding which causes glitches in the output - also its obvious the GFS can't be trusted anymore past 60 hours and should be treated similar to the NAM - how many wild goose chases have we sent on with wrapped up blizzards several days in advance here over the last few years to eventually fizzle out in future runs ? That is what helped create this thread prematurely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted yesterday at 04:36 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:36 PM 8 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: On Pivotalweather it correctly shows it as snow. GFS would be a half inch to 1 inch for most of the area. At this point it appears we're down to rooting for an inch like we got on Monday. I'll still be tracking this as long as we have a shot at a light snowfall. then should ask Tropical Tidbits creator Levy Cowan why ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted yesterday at 04:39 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:39 PM 10 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: On Pivotalweather it correctly shows it as snow. GFS would be a half inch to 1 inch for most of the area. At this point it appears we're down to rooting for an inch like we got on Monday. I'll still be tracking this as long as we have a shot at a light snowfall. If it’s another half inch event I could honestly care less. It’ll be mostly gone in 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted yesterday at 04:40 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:40 PM 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: then should ask Tropical Tidbits creator Levy Cowan why ? Who knows why Tropical Tidbits made that error, but I don't use that site anyway. Pivotalweather is much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted yesterday at 04:43 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:43 PM 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: If it’s another half inch event I could honestly care less. It’ll be mostly gone in 12 hours. I got 1 inch from the last event. If we can repeat that I'd gladly take it. A little snow is a lot better than no snow to me, but I know some snow lovers don't care about small events. We'll see about Saturday morning ... it could easily be just a dusting or nothing too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted yesterday at 04:49 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:49 PM 4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: I got 1 inch from the last event. If we can repeat that I'd gladly take it. A little snow is a lot better than no snow to me, but I know some snow lovers don't care about small events. We'll see about Saturday morning ... it could easily be just a dusting or nothing too. As of now we could easily get nothing. This will be falling apart east of the Appalachians unlike Monday where we were just close enough to the low to pick up an inch or so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted yesterday at 04:49 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:49 PM IMO Saturday morning is a dusting/coating to maybe an inch which would be the ceiling and not widespread, isolated areas. It’s looking like just a period of steady snow showers passing through 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightknights Posted yesterday at 05:07 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:07 PM It's not over until jm1220 puts it to bed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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