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Jan 11th-12th Super Bomb or Super Bummed?


Rjay
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Every time I look at these models, like the NAM in particular, showing what looks to be a nice juicy Miller A meandering along the Gulf Coast bringing juicy precip/snow to the north (and well to the north) and then taking a track towards the OBX thinking we're going to get hammered, but then the storm basically just falls apart and drifts out to sea, it kills me.

floop-nam-2025010812.ref1km_ptype.conus.

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Just now, RU848789 said:

Every time I look at these models, like the NAM in particular, showing what looks to be a nice juicy Miller A meandering along the Gulf Coast bringing juicy precip/snow to the north (and well to the north) and then taking a track towards the OBX thinking we're going to get hammered, but then the storm basically just falls apart and drifts out to sea, it kills me.

floop-nam-2025010812.ref1km_ptype.conus.

Whatever can go wrong will kind of winter. Unless of course you live in DC south, then they keep cashing in. 

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2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Every time I look at these models, like the NAM in particular, showing what looks to be a nice juicy Miller A meandering along the Gulf Coast bringing juicy precip/snow to the north (and well to the north) and then taking a track towards the OBX thinking we're going to get hammered, but then the storm basically just falls apart and drifts out to sea, it kills me.

floop-nam-2025010812.ref1km_ptype.conus.

And we have model consensus outside of 72 hours. Just not the kind we want to see. 

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5 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Every time I look at these models, like the NAM in particular, showing what looks to be a nice juicy Miller A meandering along the Gulf Coast bringing juicy precip/snow to the north (and well to the north) and then taking a track towards the OBX thinking we're going to get hammered, but then the storm basically just falls apart and drifts out to sea, it kills me.

 

Yeah it really does hurt. The storm looks like a sure bet down in the Gulf. That's why I mostly look at 500mb and sometimes 250/300mb. The surface is just a response to the upper levels. It's easier to anticipate things falling apart when you look at the upper level charts.

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24 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Every time I look at these models, like the NAM in particular, showing what looks to be a nice juicy Miller A meandering along the Gulf Coast bringing juicy precip/snow to the north (and well to the north) and then taking a track towards the OBX thinking we're going to get hammered, but then the storm basically just falls apart and drifts out to sea, it kills me.

floop-nam-2025010812.ref1km_ptype.conus.

This is what happens when the system doesn't phase until it's past us. As you can see, the eventual coastal deepens quite dramatically offshore.

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1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

Every time I look at these models, like the NAM in particular, showing what looks to be a nice juicy Miller A meandering along the Gulf Coast bringing juicy precip/snow to the north (and well to the north) and then taking a track towards the OBX thinking we're going to get hammered, but then the storm basically just falls apart and drifts out to sea, it kills me.

floop-nam-2025010812.ref1km_ptype.conus.

Its obvious we aren't going to get much with a positively tilted trough axis

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4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah that must be a model algorithm issue or something the sounding at that time is 32.2/23 at JFK with a NW wind

On Pivotalweather it correctly shows it as snow. GFS would be a half inch to 1 inch for most of the area. At this point it appears we're down to rooting for an inch like we got on Monday. I'll still be tracking this as long as we have a shot at a light snowfall. 

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14 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah that must be a model algorithm issue or something the sounding at that time is 32.2/23 at JFK with a NW wind

The GFS is a model loaded with mistakes in the coding which causes glitches in the output - also its obvious the GFS can't be trusted anymore past 60 hours and should be treated similar to the NAM - how many wild goose chases have we sent on with wrapped up blizzards several days in advance here over the last few years to eventually fizzle out in future runs ? That is what helped create this thread prematurely...

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8 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

On Pivotalweather it correctly shows it as snow. GFS would be a half inch to 1 inch for most of the area. At this point it appears we're down to rooting for an inch like we got on Monday. I'll still be tracking this as long as we have a shot at a light snowfall. 

then should ask Tropical Tidbits creator Levy Cowan why ?

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10 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

On Pivotalweather it correctly shows it as snow. GFS would be a half inch to 1 inch for most of the area. At this point it appears we're down to rooting for an inch like we got on Monday. I'll still be tracking this as long as we have a shot at a light snowfall. 

If it’s another half inch event I could honestly care less. It’ll be mostly gone in 12 hours. 

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

If it’s another half inch event I could honestly care less. It’ll be mostly gone in 12 hours. 

I got 1 inch from the last event. If we can repeat that I'd gladly take it. A little snow is a lot better than no snow to me, but I know some snow lovers don't care about small events. We'll see about Saturday morning ... it could easily be just a dusting or nothing too. 

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4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I got 1 inch from the last event. If we can repeat that I'd gladly take it. A little snow is a lot better than no snow to me, but I know some snow lovers don't care about small events. We'll see about Saturday morning ... it could easily be just a dusting or nothing too. 

As of now we could easily get nothing. This will be falling apart east of the Appalachians unlike Monday where we were just close enough to the low to pick up an inch or so

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