Jan 11th-12th Super Bomb or Super Bummed?

[jm1220]

13 minutes ago, jdj5211 said:

Yep...OTS...

Oh Tee Ess. DC now has double the season snow as our sites, might as well add ATL, CLT, ORF. Why not? 

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think the Euro is too weak with the system as it goes from TX to GA.  I'd go way bigger on QPF and dynamics overall.  That might have some impact as to what happens down the line although probably the NRN stream differences make that meaningless anyway

this is as close Euro gets to us

[Roger Smith]

Severe cold to follow snow (or no snow) window. 

[Edge Weather]

The amount of wishcasting here is unreal.  Clearly this storm looks like crap.  The only model that shows anything significant is the GFS, which has taken a major turn towards every other model. 

[wdrag]

 

DC-Baltimore through Philly-NYC-BOS along and north of I95... a small snow event seems likely Saturday the 11th with dustings to possibly at worst 4 inches but am not playing up a major event. This could have some travel impact but far too early to be sure. Maybe the most favored area for snowfall is the immediate coast of NJ/LI/CT. There's still a small chance this storm will blow up bigger and closer to the coast. Treated roads melt but timing of occurrence will have a bearing on the hazard potential, especially with ice cold surfaces preceding this event.

I can handle a weenie roast, especially if 4+ for NYC on this event.  Right now all modeling through the 06z/7 cycle is kind of merged into the above paragraph.

I haven't seen all prior posts, but for what it's worth, I do not use analogs.  I treat each event differently, not trying to profile it as one or the other category.  Yesterday a good example up here (suppression factor). A lot of these events have a lot to do with banding physics...models are helpful but imperfect.

I'll post the CoCoRaHs snow totals in the other thread at about 10A. 

 

 

 

 

 

[BoulderWX]

17 minutes ago, wdrag said:

 

DC-Baltimore through Philly-NYC-BOS along and north of I95... a small snow event seems likely Saturday the 11th with dustings to possibly at worst 4 inches but am not playing up a major event. This could have some travel impact but far too early to be sure. Maybe the most favored area for snowfall is the immediate coast of NJ/LI/CT. There's still a small chance this storm will blow up bigger and closer to the coast. Treated roads melt but timing of occurrence will have a bearing on the hazard potential, especially with ice cold surfaces preceding this event.

I can handle a weenie roast, especially if 4+ for NYC on this event.  Right now all modeling through the 06z/7 cycle is kind of merged into the above paragraph.

I haven't seen all prior posts, but for what it's worth, I do not use analogs.  I treat each event differently, not trying to profile it as one or the other category.  Yesterday a good example up here (suppression factor). A lot of these events have a lot to do with banding physics...models are helpful but imperfect.

I'll post the CoCoRaHs snow totals in the other thread at about 10A. 

 

 

 

 

 

Nice write up and very much agree. I’ve been on the ‘skirting’ train for this one. The last two GFS run depict what I’m thinking to some extent. A general 1-2” with the potential for up to 4” along the coast. 
 

A few changes to the synoptic pattern could cause this to yield more (or whiff to the south completely), but I do think we see some flakes Saturday. 

[RU848789]

To summarize, at 0Z, GFS is a significant snowstorm for most of our area, especially the coast, while the Euro gives an inch or two towards the coast, but is essentially out to sea again (similar to the past few runs) and the CMC and UK are also out to sea well to our SE, with all four models giving decent snowfalls to the deep south then some to SC/NC/SoVA before heading up the coast (GFS) or out to sea (Euro, CMC, UK); the ICON does give our area a few inches.

This system is on life support for being a major snowstorm for our area, kind of like RU's hoops season, lol. In both cases, it's not over yet, but if we don't see dramatic changes soon, they're toast. And the 6Z GFS is similar to 0Z with the Euro to come. Great analysis of what's going on meteorologically by Tomer Burg, below, including why this system is much more complex and unpredictable 5 days out than today's storm was.

https://x.com/burgwx/status/1876453467453083696

[MJO812]

It just sucks that we can't capitalize on a really good pattern. Very frustrating  .

[MJO812]

Alot more eps members further north and west than 0z. 

[cleetussnow]

Can’t count on a boxing day modeling scenario.  Agree with Walt.  Not much interesting coming our way.

if we were looking for a mostly dry and clear weekend, we have a lot of model consensus for that, so a single model showing something else shouldn’t dissuade us for thinking we get that dry and clear weekend.  Flip our frame of mind and then you can see what the models are really telling us.  

[allgame830]

6 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Can’t count on a boxing day modeling scenario.  Agree with Walt.  Not much interesting coming our way.

if we were looking for a mostly dry and clear weekend, we have a lot of model consensus for that, so a single model showing something else shouldn’t dissuade us for thinking we get that dry and clear weekend.  Flip our frame of mind and then you can see what the models are really telling us.  

Hello neighbor! Right can’t count on a Boxing Day situation however it’s only Tuesday so still plenty of time for some favorable trending. I’d take a moderate snowfall if anything. Red flag to me is seeing many EPS members NW! 

[WestBabylonWeather]

It’s probably going to snow Saturday. I will gladly and happily take 1-3” on Long Island but a blizzard is also welcome. 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

It’s probably going to snow Saturday. I will gladly and happily take 1-3” on Long Island but a blizzard is also welcome. 

I do think we get something, it’s a potent upper air system/vort coming through which should at least spawn snow showers, but the models last night showed how fragile this setup is for anything bigger. Unless there’s a real step back today to something better, the snow showers outcome is what likely happens. 

[North and West]

It just sucks that we can't capitalize on a really good pattern. Very frustrating  .

Don’t worry, if it doesn’t happen now, it has snowed plenty of times later in the winter even when it’s been very mild preceding it. Point is, no one actually knows what’s going on even when they think they do, and things are out of your control.


.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

It just sucks that we can't capitalize on a really good pattern. Very frustrating  .

If it was a really good pattern then things would've materialized. 

This pattern stinks. Way too much suppression that favors DC. Too much confluent flow

[dseagull]

Patience.  We will get ONE

 

Just be glad you got to experience the 2010s

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

If it was a really good pattern then things would've materialized. 

This pattern stinks. Way too much suppression that favors DC. Too much confluent flow

It’s better then what’s coming to end January into Feb 

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It’s better then what’s coming to end January into Feb 

Replacing this dry, cold/windy pattern with a warm one sounds great 

[WestBabylonWeather]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Replacing this dry, cold/windy pattern with a warm one sounds great 

Where is it dry I got half an inch of snow yesterday 

[wishcast_hater]

1996 Storm came together on the models at the last minute. Its not over unti its over - Yogi Berra

[romba]

For the previous miss we spent 3 days waiting for the ‘inevitable’ northern shift SWFE always take to turn snow to rain for us. Of course it didn’t happen- not holding my breath for this one

[qg_omega]

Looks like a nice weekend, warmer than it’s been

[wdrag]

4 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

1996 Storm came together on the models at the last minute. Its not over unti its over - Yogi Berra

My only thought on 96 and even through 2010 ish...  models weren't nearly as good.  

 

Those of us who're in our 70s and older (hands please) , have witnessed spectacular improvements in general model consensus through at least 5 days... even this storm just passed was thread started the 30th, couched in the uncertainty (see p1 of the Jan 6 thread if interested)). Maybe even those on here who're only `60 (born in 65), probably are aware of the spectacular improvement.  ALL of us should now know how helpful the short term models are (HRRR(X) and RAP.  Ditto the science of medicine but I won digress. 

[wishcast_hater]

My only thought on 96 and even through 2010 ish...  models weren't nearly as good.  
 
Those of us who're in our 70s and older (hands please) , have witnessed spectacular improvements in general model consensus through at least 5 days... even this storm just passed was thread started the 30th, couched in the uncertainty (see p1 of the Jan 6 thread if interested)). Maybe even those on here who're only `60 (born in 65), probably are aware of the spectacular improvement.  ALL of us should now know how helpful the short term models are (HRRR(X) and RAP.  Ditto the science of medicine but I won digress. 

You’re 9 years older than me and to this day I still see plenty of posts of how the models suck since they were upgraded or how they cannot get a good handle on the Synoptics. Still hoping for a swing in a favorable direction.


.

[NJwx85]

Long range NAM but this would result in a suppressed solution. 

 

[romba]

34 minutes ago, wdrag said:

My only thought on 96 and even through 2010 ish...  models weren't nearly as good.  

 

Those of us who're in our 70s and older (hands please) , have witnessed spectacular improvements in general model consensus through at least 5 days... even this storm just passed was thread started the 30th, couched in the uncertainty (see p1 of the Jan 6 thread if interested)). Maybe even those on here who're only `60 (born in 65), probably are aware of the spectacular improvement.  ALL of us should now know how helpful the short term models are (HRRR(X) and RAP.  Ditto the science of medicine but I won digress. 

Each update may not seem to be beneficial, but over the long run the trend is for more accuracy farther out from the event. It's rare these days to get surprised 2 days out but used to apparently be a somewhat frequent occurrence, even 15 years ago.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, BoulderWX said:

Nice write up and very much agree. I’ve been on the ‘skirting’ train for this one. The last two GFS run depict what I’m thinking to some extent. A general 1-2” with the potential for up to 4” along the coast. 
 

A few changes to the synoptic pattern could cause this to yield more (or whiff to the south completely), but I do think we see some flakes Saturday. 

really no different than any of the other storms so far this winter.  4 inches might be a bit too high, but 1-3 inches sounds about right.

It has the potential to be as good as our best December storm which dropped 3 inches here.

 

[LibertyBell]

55 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Replacing this dry, cold/windy pattern with a warm one sounds great 

as long as it's sunny and warm, not rainy and warm

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

I do think we get something, it’s a potent upper air system/vort coming through which should at least spawn snow showers, but the models last night showed how fragile this setup is for anything bigger. Unless there’s a real step back today to something better, the snow showers outcome is what likely happens. 

The combo of that jet and the vort I think it snows for sure.  I'd rather be us right now than SNE probably.

[weatherpruf]

36 minutes ago, wdrag said:

My only thought on 96 and even through 2010 ish...  models weren't nearly as good.  

 

Those of us who're in our 70s and older (hands please) , have witnessed spectacular improvements in general model consensus through at least 5 days... even this storm just passed was thread started the 30th, couched in the uncertainty (see p1 of the Jan 6 thread if interested)). Maybe even those on here who're only `60 (born in 65), probably are aware of the spectacular improvement.  ALL of us should now know how helpful the short term models are (HRRR(X) and RAP.  Ditto the science of medicine but I won digress. 

Medicine is also an art; I remember a doctor telling me my labs were fine but I looked like crap. I was like, is that your second opinion? ( all hail Rodney Dangerfield ).