RU848789 Posted Tuesday at 04:14 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:14 AM 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: But I will take this. I'd be very happy with a less amped storm that still dumped 4-8" of snow on most of the area... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Tuesday at 04:15 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:15 AM Just now, RU848789 said: I'd be very happy with a less amped storm that still dumped 4-8" of snow on most of the area... I'd be happier with that than the 18z hour of snow to pouring rain to dryslot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted Tuesday at 04:17 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:17 AM welp..... 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted Tuesday at 04:18 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:18 AM 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I'd be happier with that than the 18z hour of snow to pouring rain to dryslot. Agreed. Nice run for many 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted Tuesday at 04:19 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:19 AM 5 minutes ago, jdj5211 said: shows a 988mb low near the benchmark and a bunch of storm cancel posts go up.....you guys are too funny 988 at BM means nothing if the dynamics are not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted Tuesday at 04:21 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:21 AM Just now, David-LI said: 988 at BM means nothing if the dynamics are not good It's plenty cold to stick. Nothing wrong with a 3-6/4-8" storm!! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted Tuesday at 04:23 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:23 AM Watch the EURO switch with the GFS… now that would be funny 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted Tuesday at 04:26 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:26 AM In Orange County we went from 30 inches on the 12z to 20 inches on the 18z to 2 inches on the 0z. At least the 6 z can't give us negative amounts, or can it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted Tuesday at 04:26 AM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 04:26 AM Super bummed 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 04:26 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:26 AM Just now, Rjay said: Super bummed You will not be tomorrow. Typical hide and seek we see all the times with models. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted Tuesday at 04:38 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:38 AM 0Z GFS is trending towards the Canadian which basically missed at 0Z and expect the Euro to be similar to its 12Z run....That's not how a trend works. The gfs actually went monster hit, to too amped that it hugged the coast and now it's gone the other way a bit. If anything the trend is the monster hit. I'm being literal here, but words matter - what you're describing isn't a trend. You're just saying something that backs your hunch. . 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 04:40 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:40 AM 5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: 0Z GFS is trending towards the Canadian which basically missed at 0Z and expect the Euro to be similar to its 12Z run.... Dude that's not how it works 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Tuesday at 04:40 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:40 AM Just now, Jt17 said: That's not how a trend works. The gfs actually went monster hit, to too amped that it hugged the coast and now it's gone the other way a bit. If anything the trend is the monster hit. I'm being literal here, but words matter - what you're describing isn't a trend. You're just saying something that backs your hunch. . However you want to define it - BUT I am siding with the voice of reason on this one - Walt- he tells it like it is and doesn't wishcast....... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 04:40 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:40 AM Gefs looks better than the op 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 04:41 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:41 AM Just now, NEG NAO said: However you want to define it - BUT I am siding with the voice of reason on this one - Walt- he tells it like it is and doesn't wishcast....... No one is wishcasting. We all have been through this road before with huge storms. Models always go back and forth . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted Tuesday at 04:49 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:49 AM UKMET swing and a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Tuesday at 04:50 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:50 AM 39 minutes ago, RU848789 said: I'd be very happy with a less amped storm that still dumped 4-8" of snow on most of the area... I think it could be similar to todays event with the heavier amounts south of the area and 1 - 4 in the metro.......as of now....although any banding could produce 4 - 8 in those areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted Tuesday at 04:51 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:51 AM 1 minute ago, jdj5211 said: UKMET swing and a miss Shocking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted Tuesday at 04:53 AM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 04:53 AM The only decent piece of guidance so far tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Tuesday at 04:55 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:55 AM 1 minute ago, Rjay said: The only decent piece of guidance so far tonight have a comparison to 12Z ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted Tuesday at 04:57 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:57 AM just as many wide right as there are tucked into the coast.....can still go either way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Tuesday at 04:59 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:59 AM 1 minute ago, jdj5211 said: just as many wide right as there are tucked into the coast.....can still go either way the 0Z Euro Suite will determine which side of the fence we are on with this potential and will have an impact on the BOM output,,,,,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted Tuesday at 05:08 AM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 05:08 AM 13 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: have a comparison to 12Z ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted Tuesday at 05:38 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:38 AM Euro looks slightly better....not sure it gets there though.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted Tuesday at 05:45 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:45 AM 6 minutes ago, jdj5211 said: Euro looks slightly better....not sure it gets there though.... I heard it's worse :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted Tuesday at 05:48 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:48 AM 9 minutes ago, jdj5211 said: Euro looks slightly better....not sure it gets there though.... quite worse actually. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted Tuesday at 05:48 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:48 AM 2 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: I heard it's worse :/ Yep...OTS... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted Tuesday at 05:50 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:50 AM 3 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: I heard it's worse :/ Not much different, it generates light snow due to some combo of the northern stream wave or the jet max overhead but its really not moved a ton since 12z. The Euro is probably too weak with the southern stream wave, its QPF amounts down in AL/GA/TN/MS seem too low to me in this setup 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted Tuesday at 05:51 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:51 AM Just now, SnowGoose69 said: Not much different, it generates light snow due to some combo of the northern stream wave or the jet max overhead but its really not moved a ton since 12z. The Euro is probably too weak with the southern stream wave, its QPF amounts down in AL/GA/TN/MS seem too low to me in this setup Any thoughts on the handling of the southern stream energy? Do you think it's too slow to eject on the Euro as was a known bias about 8-10 years ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted Tuesday at 05:56 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:56 AM 3 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: Any thoughts on the handling of the southern stream energy? Do you think it's too slow to eject on the Euro as was a known bias about 8-10 years ago? I think the Euro is too weak with the system as it goes from TX to GA. I'd go way bigger on QPF and dynamics overall. That might have some impact as to what happens down the line although probably the NRN stream differences make that meaningless anyway 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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